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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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Looking for some positive - at least tomorrow’s runs will be better than tonight’s. No way will low pressure be that deep. Hopefully slightly higher pressure to the east will begin to show its hand.

Quite amazing how we have found ourselves in this position - the curse of the UK!

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Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

*** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

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1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

I’m personally looking forward to a bit of lively weather, bring it on. We don’t all like high heat and oppressive humidity 🙂

It's just the chilly air that follows that low that worries me!

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34 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Shame it’s all gone quiet on here and is no longer a HOT topic😉, but did anyone really expect these very exceptional conditions to just go on and on and on??...let’s be realistic shall we!!!..if you’re in the s / se and love hot weather you have been in heaven for quite some time now, if you don’t it’s been hell..but anyway, enough waffle..the models show further warm and humid thundery conditions for a while yet, at least across England & Wales BUT then a marked change, much cooler more autumnal conditions, especially further north according to the 0z output...

No, but I don’t think many expected it to turn exceptionally poor straight after. Just some seasonal Azores ridging and general warmth but suit most people just fine.

Fwiw, it doesn’t look QUITE as bad as yesterday but the outlook doesn’t look clever. Ideally we’d want the low to stall to the west or pass through quickly with a high behind it, although that would be the cooler solution, it would probably also be the sunnier one.

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No wonder it's so quiet in here, pretty abysmal runs for mid August.  As said above, it's unusual to see such a deep Atlantic low at this time of year, the ECM has it modelled at 975 for next Thursday / Friday:

image.thumb.png.904c33893aef0715be217b75ebc14199.png   image.thumb.png.49552145715ceeff4d622d14e4923d4a.png

As always though, things can change quickly but it looks like we'll have to endure some rubbish for a few days at least.  All this rain is good for the garden though 😬

 

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That low does look very deep for what is still summer and I wonder if its a direct correlation of all the energy thats stored within Europe.

For light relief I share this remarkable summers temperature chart so far for my locale in Southern UK (sorry I know its not model related)

 

SUMMER TEMPS 2020 2020-08-15 130032.png

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15 minutes ago, Mandrake said:

That low does look very deep for what is still summer and I wonder if its a direct correlation of all the energy thats stored within Europe.

For light relief I share this remarkable summers temperature chart so far for my locale in Southern UK (sorry I know its not model related)

 

SUMMER TEMPS 2020 2020-08-15 130032.png

It’s not really - it’s just the remnants of tropical storm Kyle being caught up in the mid latitudes and engaging with the jet which is causing the rapid cyclogenesis. Happens most years in late summer/early autumn as tropical systems recurve back into the Atlantic 😄

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Nothing much to cheer on the 12z runs - no signs of anything settled appearing in the next 10 days. No wonder it’s so quiet. It’s that rubbish I can’t even be bothered to post a chart or two 😅😂

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Models are certainly indicating some lovely charts for those of us that want summer done with from next weekend albeit i suspect we might see might see the pattern die back in terms of how cyclonic it may be in the final week (blocking still to the north and west but likely drier as we get weaker, flabbier lows). September pattern is up in the air at the moment. 

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On 14/08/2020 at 17:38, Mark wheeler said:

Oh no 🤦🏼‍♂️. Broad agreement too , Bring back the heat please . That’s Gem , Ukmo and Gfs at 144hrs 

BDD9B929-3500-44CF-BE47-F61A346F1DFE.png

191DCB25-4EDC-4DE6-883E-72D793A9556A.png

B52A6B72-F34B-4D58-BD61-99D1CBC0929A.gif

Just quoting Mark’s post from yesterday (again!), to compare today’s 12z at T120, i.e. like for like, here’s todays runs +ECM:

D777C45F-07AD-474B-AE77-D6C7CBB10874.thumb.png.3bf9bd8434c8f4cc986245fc57fd5a06.pngA17244C8-174B-43FD-8281-6C75D49021B7.thumb.gif.b1e0edb149bb7784b66a45dda0665831.gif78A7FB22-CD2C-4D52-9DD3-A7FAC0E9D213.thumb.png.872b82cc9654f20a42f1b70f0be5f3e5.png41561B7F-74F6-4053-A233-3F3421897990.thumb.gif.966098ffccc278fa700df40902128800.gif

Looks like on average both a correction west and reduction in intensity ( may be connected),  GFS goes a bit weird after this taking the low northeast.  Low probably hits Friday now.  

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Slight alteration on the ECM this morning. The Atlantic low for the end of the week now performs a winter-like turn to the NW, and as a result we see a slight NW/SE split, with the NW being wet and windy, and the SE warmer, slightly less windy, though still "changeable" rather than settled. 

This is a bit more like ensembles from a few days ago but, as we often say, it's just one run.

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Sun 16 August 500 mb anomaly charts update

Ec-gfs little sign of any ridging on either chart other than v far east, mobile w’ly into uk, ec trough well east, gfs e of n sea into w’ern Europe

Noaa shows +ve heights/ridging w Greenland into trough between Iceland nw uk with w’ly over atlantic (after v slack area re ridging) then into uk and reasonably strong flow

All 3 suggest no heat and a mainly changeable or even unsettled spell for 6-10 day period, confluent at entrance so possibly deepish lows towards nw uk (?any ex TS involvement would exacerbate this).

Nb:-contour over central uk (564DM) spends much of time around or above 60N so temps likely to be below normal at times

Nothing on 8-14 suggest any real change in this pattern 6-10 day.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

Edited by johnholmes
slight wording changes
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45 minutes ago, DCee said:

Looks like Autumn arriving early...

Not until beyond the week ahead though!..there’s plenty of warmth still in the tank for the next week or so (for sure nothing like the intense heat of recent times) but still pleasant enough, at least further s / e / se BUT beyond that it looks cooler for sure, especially further n / nw!..just using the ECM 0z ensemble mean as 1 example!😉

2216FD14-189E-4DA0-A94A-9DA3132FCD38.thumb.gif.84400cf7064d894d8cf099552a13aab6.gif705E91A8-F53F-4326-8D06-10F48D3FD813.thumb.gif.682fed8ff9e544b62c51c108660b57a8.gif052B4B6D-6A6E-4FB1-8669-AC70031A412B.thumb.gif.dbb1e065a50e4fb1c33c39f37284288d.gif427686D8-8F45-47B7-B7BF-F9F9C9C70C68.thumb.gif.ba7f224efe0890bc22fd3337185cdd5d.gif

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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GFS this morning tried to cut-off a low towards day 10 but fortunately kept it far enough east so as to avoid pumping any warm air north but that's probably the best crumb for warm lovers. 

For people like myself it looks like a wetter outlook than most of July and August to date but no real sign of summer trying to hang on. 

 

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23 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Just quoting Mark’s post from yesterday (again!), to compare today’s 12z at T120, i.e. like for like, here’s todays runs +ECM:

D777C45F-07AD-474B-AE77-D6C7CBB10874.thumb.png.3bf9bd8434c8f4cc986245fc57fd5a06.pngA17244C8-174B-43FD-8281-6C75D49021B7.thumb.gif.b1e0edb149bb7784b66a45dda0665831.gif78A7FB22-CD2C-4D52-9DD3-A7FAC0E9D213.thumb.png.872b82cc9654f20a42f1b70f0be5f3e5.png41561B7F-74F6-4053-A233-3F3421897990.thumb.gif.966098ffccc278fa700df40902128800.gif

Looks like on average both a correction west and reduction in intensity ( may be connected),  GFS goes a bit weird after this taking the low northeast.  Low probably hits Friday now.  

Sorry for self quote, but just for the charts yesterday T120, compare today T96 re track of the low:

60727E93-4110-4361-83F1-5B518F1FDBBC.thumb.png.51ac513b292b5333d903ea3d9805fdb6.png0B036429-B8D0-4642-A6F5-51D3350FD387.thumb.gif.1e9d5c6625e809197c86eec0d746d432.gif51F12DAB-D4BC-4D16-AA62-8661D048B86F.thumb.gif.677d26984c3fd30452084fafbbf57704.gifDBA282D5-80DA-4AFF-8E4B-948AFF1FE9FC.thumb.png.de2652d8af56e15dcad9163b229192ba.png

Low deepest on ECM and UKMO, but will somewhat fill before it impacts the UK.

Moving on with ECM:

67422792-208A-4398-98CF-9A00465D7949.thumb.gif.325e143d2623f25914722c2c074c0b28.gif68561E5D-767B-4C9A-8289-F5CCF48380D8.thumb.gif.209042a275bb5debfc74d761018bdc3e.gif24BFCCD7-42E2-475A-86ED-5FE1EA58DE91.thumb.gif.b6e98cfa5075993451f2c001473272c2.gif

T120-168 returns the south at least to something more seasonal....

 

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Despite the rather cyclonic conditions forecast for the coming week. Temperatures will probably do okay with a fair amount of warm air around. Also the combination of those will mean that there will be some pretty hefty showers around away from the fronts that will move through during Wednesday.

Week 2 however does look pretty flat unfortunately.

image.thumb.gif.12c775eefe774c12f26dfc303f2798b9.gifimage.thumb.gif.1e5b91f92cc53b9dcf36f78dfda23994.gif   
 

The dominant trough to the north east isn’t going to be helpful.

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