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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?

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the upper low a little further west on the overnight runs ........

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14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the upper low a little further west on the overnight runs ........

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Indeed - and the position of the upper and surface patterns dictates that the warmer/more humid air continues to wrap around from the E/SE well into the new week. Temperatures won't be high due to cloud cover and ppn, but mid 20s still looking likely. Not cold by any means.

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8 hours ago, Downpour said:

Last day of summer is 20 September according to the cosmos. Plenty of summer to go, let’s hope it’s pleasantly warm rather than days on end of furnace like temps, which we are currently enduring down here. That said, late August and September heatwaves aren’t that rare, so I wouldn’t count on it! 

The seasons are not an astronomical event, man did that to "tidy it up" by using the quarter days.
The seasons are a natural event that dont start/stop on any one date, but weather plays a part in advancing or delaying some of the processes and as this is a meteorological forum, the meteorological summer ends on August 31st.

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Posted (edited)

I think the ECM 0z operational speaks for itself, just look 👀 at these uppers (850’s) for preety much the next week or so..:shok:..astonishing!!!!..meanwhile the intense heat and humidity continues across the s / se...🌩️🔥☀️:bomb:😁😜..thunderstorms and heatwave southern u k..it sure is!😉

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Edited by JON SNOW
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3 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

I think the ECM 0z operational speaks for itself, just look 👀 at these uppers (850’s) for preety much the next week or so..:shok:..astonishing!!!!..meanwhile the intense heat and humidity continues across the s / se...🌩️🔥☀️:bomb:😁😜

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they do decrease day on day  though , not to anything particularly cold but something more bearable

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Ecm this morning sees the weekend remaining warm, with the best of the weather probably in the north, where 21-25C highs will feel very nice - in the south still very warm air but regular showers and thunderstorms suppressing temperatures far more than earlier in the week, 23-27C the likely range in most places here - so still feeling hot in sunny spells.

By Monday/Tuesday, the warm air's hold becomes even more tenuous, though there does seem a pattern of the warmer air holding on longer than expected.

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8 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Just an interesting note on tomorrow. The Arome has Heathrow reaching 36C by just 1pm. It then drops off due to a thundery development. But if the potential is there to reach 36C by 1pm, you have to wonder what's possible if the clouds don't arrive as forecast.

I think the AROME can be binned for the next day or so - though it still has 36C over Heathrow today, elsewhere it is wildly different to its last run 6 hours before. It really struggles in thundery set-ups.

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

they do decrease day on day  though , not to anything particularly cold but something more bearable

You’re right, they do indeed slowly decrease beyond midweek and I should have mentioned that, don’t want to mislead anyone. My main point was that the uppers (T850 hPA / Dam thicknesses) are still very impressive even when the main heat subsides (from Friday)..so if the ECM was right, despite more cloud and thundery rain / showers it would still be warm at the surface (around mid to perhaps upper 20’s c range) and still feel very warm or even hot in any sunshine until around next tues.🙂

Edited by JON SNOW
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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

The seasons are not an astronomical event, man did that to "tidy it up" by using the quarter days.
The seasons are a natural event that dont start/stop on any one date, but weather plays a part in advancing or delaying some of the processes and as this is a meteorological forum, the meteorological summer ends on August 31st.

Summer is 21 June to 20 September in my book, set by the cosmos from solstice to equinox. This is regardless of what the Met Office says for calendar convenience. 
 

In any case, there is lots of time to go where summery weather is possible. 

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It really is starting to get annoying now!!we have developed our own low cloud again this morning after having a largely clear night!!i dont understand why that is happening!!the east coast is largely clear of low cloud as wel!!it has stopped temps rising to the maximum for the last few days i think!

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4 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Summer is 21 June to 20 September in my book, set by the cosmos from solstice to equinox. This is regardless of what the Met Office says for calendar convenience. 
 

In any case, there is lots of time to go where summery weather is possible. 

Or this year June 20th.

Seasons based around calendar months is the only way to keep sensible records though.

May to September is the extended summer for me.

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3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

It really is starting to get annoying now!!we have developed our own low cloud again this morning after having a largely clear night!!i dont understand why that is happening!!the east coast is largely clear of low cloud as wel!!it has stopped temps rising to the maximum for the last few days i think!

Yes a surprising amount of cloud over east London this morning. I suspect yesterday will end up being the hotter day although the satellite suggests a rapid clearing from the south. 

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Ecm this morning sees the weekend remaining warm, with the best of the weather probably in the north, where 21-25C highs will feel very nice - in the south still very warm air but regular showers and thunderstorms suppressing temperatures far more than earlier in the week, 23-27C the likely range in most places here - so still feeling hot in sunny spells.

By Monday/Tuesday, the warm air's hold becomes even more tenuous, though there does seem a pattern of the warmer air holding on longer than expected.

The extended paints an ever less summery picture, run by run ....... as mentioned last night, going to need the eps to be a hell,of a fail for the 9/16 day period to be decent .....

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38 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

It really is starting to get annoying now!!we have developed our own low cloud again this morning after having a largely clear night!!i dont understand why that is happening!!the east coast is largely clear of low cloud as wel!!it has stopped temps rising to the maximum for the last few days i think!

Where are you based? Might be worth making your location visible.

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12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The extended paints an ever less summery picture, run by run ....... as mentioned last night, going to need the eps to be a hell,of a fail for the 9/16 day period to be decent .....

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Upper trough in full effect there. Still can't see anything other than a transition to much more unsettled weather after mid month. Length of unsettled period in question, but i'd say it's currently long odds for another decent spell of summer weather in August.

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Just now, danm said:

Where are you based? Might be worth making your location visible.

Im in leicester!!lets hope it burns off in the next hour so just maybe i can get a 30 degrees today!

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Posted (edited)

Just a quick one on last night's EC46.. it basically wants to turn us more unstable through the weekend and next week, should be pretty warm at times though, especially further South. Interestingly it also wants to extend a ridge into the South by the latter part of the month, meaning a settled and warm Bank Holiday if that comes off.. That would be a rather spiffing end to Summer if it plays out that way.. In the mean time let's see what Exeter have to say today regarding it remaining settled next week which is what they've been stating the last couple of days.. Enjoy the Heat, and the storms if you've got them. 🔥

Edited by MATT☀️
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1 hour ago, Downpour said:

Summer is 21 June to 20 September in my book, set by the cosmos from solstice to equinox. This is regardless of what the Met Office says for calendar convenience. 
 

In any case, there is lots of time to go where summery weather is possible. 

tell mother nature that.... 

Of course summery weather is possible, but the summer season isnt a weather type... we get summer regardless of what the weather produces.

1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

Actually, @mushymanrob is one of the most balanced posters on here - honest posts with no hyperbole or emotional rollercoaster posting.

Appreciate that, thanks... tbh i dont know why "that post" yesterday was so misunderstood, we are sliding into Autumn, and recent runs have clearly illustrating this and several posts this morning have commented as much. I love heat, i want heat, but i cannot find currently (this of course could change) anything from any source that would suggest theres a lengthy warm/sunny/settled spell. Its looking decidedly that we are returning to a pretty average, normal, westerly regime - so unsettled.

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

tell mother nature that.... 

Of course summery weather is possible, but the summer season isnt a weather type... we get summer regardless of what the weather produces.

Appreciate that, thanks... tbh i dont know why "that post" yesterday was so misunderstood, we are sliding into Autumn, and recent runs have clearly illustrating this and several posts this morning have commented as much. I love heat, i want heat, but i cannot find currently (this of course could change) anything from any source that would suggest theres a lengthy warm/sunny/settled spell. Its looking decidedly that we are returning to a pretty average, normal, westerly regime - so unsettled.

No idea mushy. It's a bit different to the silly people saying summer was over in June/July....whatever way you cut it, we're less than 3 weeks from meteorological autumn. So yes - we are sliding towards autumn.

This system (shown at day 10 here, and it's current state from NOAA) will need watching. Could wreak havoc with the jet/NWP as usual.

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No change in the extended cluster outlook today - unsettled at day 10, with clusters staying flat, zonal and unsettled out to day 15:

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Edited by mb018538
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4 hours ago, Downpour said:

Summer is 21 June to 20 September in my book, set by the cosmos from solstice to equinox. This is regardless of what the Met Office says for calendar convenience. 
 

In any case, there is lots of time to go where summery weather is possible. 

My birthday is on the 17th September and I find it ridiculous that some people think that is summertime. It just isn’t.

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17 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

My birthday is on the 17th September and I find it ridiculous that some people think that is summertime. It just isn’t.

Matt go steady pal.. this year could be a classic.. late based one ☝️ 🤙 @september can bear some ripe fruits 🍇 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, MATT☀️ said:

Interestingly it also wants to extend a ridge into the South by the latter part of the month, meaning a settled and warm Bank Holiday if that comes off.. That would be a rather spiffing end to Summer if it plays out that way.

End of summer?...don't 'bank' on it, end of summer by calendar month that's all. As another poster mentioned September is largely a summer month now days in the south.

On another note amazing how the warmth and humidity just seems to be extended, very strange synoptics we're now witnessing.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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5 hours ago, Downpour said:

Summer is 21 June to 20 September in my book, set by the cosmos from solstice to equinox. This is regardless of what the Met Office says for calendar convenience. 
 

In any case, there is lots of time to go where summery weather is possible. 

How on earth can we have weather statistics if we do what you suggest? It is not just UK Met it is the World Met Organisation for every country in the world.

That does not mean we cannot get 'summery' type weather outside the official summer or 'wintry' type weather outside the official winter period.

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3 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Matt go steady pal.. this year could be a classic.. late based one ☝️🤙 @september can bear some ripe fruits 🍇 

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Mid September does often bring settled, warm and pleasant weather. It just isn't summer at all to me. I think the meteorological seasons make more sense than the astronomical seasons, with the latter varying slightly each year,

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