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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I wouldn't put the record books back in the loft just yet. The UKMO raw temps tonight look just as hot for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday as they were for the Friday just past, maybe even a degree up by Tuesday.

Indeed. 850s remain at 18c now until Thursday in the SE - surely this is the longest ever consecutive run of 850s this high? Mid 30s possible out to midweek for sure.

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4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I wouldn't put the record books back in the loft just yet. The UKMO raw temps tonight look just as hot for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday as they were for the Friday just past, maybe even a degree up by Tuesday.

Do you have any charts of the raw ukmo temps or your predicted highs based on the ecm raw out put?

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10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I wouldn't put the record books back in the loft just yet. The UKMO raw temps tonight look just as hot for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday as they were for the Friday just past, maybe even a degree up by Tuesday.

If we could get a cloudless day then I’d agree with you but I anticipate either a cloudy first few hours or the morning courtesy of overnight storms or developing cloudy afternoons with accompanying storms ...

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

If we could get a cloudless day then I’d agree with you but I anticipate either a cloudy first few hours or the morning courtesy of overnight storms or developing cloudy afternoons with accompanying storms ...

Met office next 4 days for Heathrow is 35/35/36/34c

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ECM 12z raw data

Sunday - 32c

Monday - 32c

Tuesday - 33/34c

Wednesday - 32c

Thursday - 30c

Storms around as expected. Max temps probably not so widespread as recent days and favouring lucky spots that avoid the torrential downpours.

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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM 12z raw data

Sunday - 32c

Monday - 32c

Tuesday - 33/34c

Wednesday - 32c

Thursday - 30c

Storms around as expected. Max temps probably not so widespread as recent days and favouring lucky spots that avoid the torrential downpours.

 

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Arpege 

36c Sunday

35c Monday 

34c Tuesday 

35c Wednesday 

 

 

Hopefully there be off the mark and not so high . Like today only got up to around 29 and it felt a lot fresher with a breeze and more cloud . Friday was unbearable , no more of that please . Roll on autumn/winter lol . But one thing I do hope happens this week is some big old storms 🙏🏻

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40 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Met office next 4 days for Heathrow is 35/35/36/34c

my comment related to possible T2M record ???  Date records will likely be under threat apart from Monday .....

tomorrow looks to have less cloud cover predicted but the nor’easter will take the edge off the max achievable ....

Edited by bluearmy
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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

my comment related to possible T2M record ???  Date records will likely be under threat apart from Monday .....

tomorrow looks to have less cloud cover predicted but the nor’easter will take the edge off the max achievable ....

Still managed 35.5c with a NE wind today! Tomorrow shouldn’t be too much different?

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

ECM 12z raw data

Sunday - 32c

Monday - 32c

Tuesday - 33/34c

Wednesday - 32c

Thursday - 30c

Storms around as expected. Max temps probably not so widespread as recent days and favouring lucky spots that avoid the torrential downpours.

A consecutive run of 35C+ days might be out of reach now (might still get a late reporting station for today but met office stating 34.5C as the official high today), but still a very good chance of six consecutive days at 34C or above, which I don't think even 1976 managed.

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1 hour ago, clark3r said:

Do you have any charts of the raw ukmo temps or your predicted highs based on the ecm raw out put?

complete_model_modgbr_2020080812_78_4855
WEATHER.US

UKMO (6 days) - Current forecast valid for 08/11/2020, 01:00pm of parameter "Max. temperature, 3h/6h", model chart for map...

Ukmo showing 35C raw max for Tuesday - it *only* had 34C for Friday.

It's all variations around the same them I guess - localised conditions will make the difference between 34C and 36C as a max each day.

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:
complete_model_modgbr_2020080812_78_4855
WEATHER.US

UKMO (6 days) - Current forecast valid for 08/11/2020, 01:00pm of parameter "Max. temperature, 3h/6h", model chart for map...

Ukmo showing 35C raw max for Tuesday - it *only* had 34C for Friday.

It's all variations around the same them I guess - localised conditions will make the difference between 34C and 36C as a max each day.

Well, as predicted hottest temperatures were east of the IOW today. The latest upgrade shows highs approaching 36c come Tuesday in some areas. 

Edited by Portsmouth Sun
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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

A consecutive run of 35C+ days might be out of reach now (might still get a late reporting station for today but met office stating 34.5C as the official high today), but still a very good chance of six consecutive days at 34C or above, which I don't think even 1976 managed.

@Weather-history mentions, in a 1976 heatwave thread, record maximas in a 6 day run as follows: 

23rd June 1976: 32.2C

24th June 1976: 32.4C

25th June 1976: 33.5C

26th June 1976: 35.4C

27th June 1976: 35.5C

28th June 1976: 35.6C

So 6 days straight above 34oC might well be a record. It’d have to beat 34.1oC as a mean as that’s what the above was. 

Edited by Coopsy
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The phrase "I haven't seen that before" has been one I've used many times in the past couple of years, and here's another - I've never seen a GFS temperature chart as hot as this before, even last July:

72-582UK.GIF?08-18

Edit: OK, not quite 🙂

27-582UK.GIF

Edited by Man With Beard
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11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The phrase "I haven't seen that before" has been one I've used many times in the past couple of years, and here's another - I've never seen a GFS temperature chart as hot as this before, even last July:

Edit: OK, not quite 🙂

27-582UK.GIF

Jeez, that's some heat!

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image.thumb.gif.058fa6df06d32c623e371d5f72ebb15a.gif 

image.thumb.gif.c0541c1c12149dcbded8f687c7229396.gif   
 

A fairly slack south easterly across eastern areas. More pronounced in the south east. But this seems to run ahead of a series of lines of showers that run northwards through central/western parts of the country. GFS op reaching 34c on Tuesday and Wednesday. Arpege has 35c widely Tuesday and 37c Wednesday. Something to watch as the breakdown of sorts is occurring Thursday (if it does happen) and that does appear to be strengthening the advection of heat from the south ahead of this. 100F at risk of being reached potentially.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Thursday is quickly becoming another "heatwave watch" day

UW96-7.GIF?09-07

Somehow the UKMO ends up with this for Saturday, haven't got the temperature charts but I'd guess it could lead to another 30C day if verified, depending on where the surface wind is coming from:

UW144-21.GIF?09-07

Worth pointing out there are huge differences in the models at just T96, and the ECM looks set to end the party conclusively by Friday

ECM1-120.GIF

Edited by Man With Beard
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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Thursday is quickly becoming another "heatwave watch" day

UW96-7.GIF?09-07

Somehow the UKMO ends up with this for Saturday, haven't got the temperature charts but I'd guess it could lead to another 30C day if verified, depending on where the surface wind is coming from:

UW144-21.GIF?09-07

Wow heat just keeps going

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44 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Thursday is quickly becoming another "heatwave watch" day

UW96-7.GIF?09-07

Somehow the UKMO ends up with this for Saturday, haven't got the temperature charts but I'd guess it could lead to another 30C day if verified, depending on where the surface wind is coming from:

UW144-21.GIF?09-07

Worth pointing out there are huge differences in the models at just T96, and the ECM looks set to end the party conclusively by Friday

ECM1-120.GIF

A complete dogs dinner for the end of the week. No idea how much that trough develops or comes into play yet. Anything beyond 4 days is a total guess.

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8 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

The phrase "I haven't seen that before" has been one I've used many times in the past couple of years, and here's another - I've never seen a GFS temperature chart as hot as this before, even last July:

72-582UK.GIF?08-18

Edit: OK, not quite 🙂

27-582UK.GIF

Here's a GFS temperature chart I saw modelled in 2018
1756975148_gfs22ndjulfor3rdaug.thumb.png.f7eabc05b3f77dbfe06c2a8681920509.png

Obviously it was in FI and didn't come off (I remember talk of a big August heatwave), but definitely met the criteria of being saved to my laptop!

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Looking like another blistering few days coming up, these are the Sunday to Wednesday temps modelled by the Arpege.  As usual, the extreme's will be seen in the SE corner but warm or very warm for much of the UK and Ireland.  

image.thumb.png.b57f5da873c4f2b1343c06b1b818d5b4.pngimage.thumb.png.d98ea12b5ba382ad255171b8972e0920.pngimage.thumb.png.e581c5dde3f00a92497ea7fd2afb401e.pngimage.thumb.png.8521a6dcc107924d93a2c9804ed50f19.png    

So that's max's of 33 / 34 / 35 / 37 with a hot Thursday to follow.  Extraordinary in the truest sense of the word!

That said, if the ECM is on the money, next Friday onwards will bring in much cooler and unsettled conditions.  For how long though?

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36 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Here's a GFS temperature chart I saw modelled in 2018
1756975148_gfs22ndjulfor3rdaug.thumb.png.f7eabc05b3f77dbfe06c2a8681920509.png

Obviously it was in FI and didn't come off (I remember talk of a big August heatwave), but definitely met the criteria of being saved to my laptop!

Remember it well, it was a very close shave on a 40C style heatwave, models backed off at around D7! Very hard to get these charts inside D6. GFS this morning still very hot for Wednesday, ARPEGE similarly so as others have pointed out.

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35 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Looking like another blistering few days coming up, these are the Sunday to Wednesday temps modelled by the Arpege.  As usual, the extreme's will be seen in the SE corner but warm or very warm for much of the UK and Ireland.  

image.thumb.png.b57f5da873c4f2b1343c06b1b818d5b4.pngimage.thumb.png.d98ea12b5ba382ad255171b8972e0920.pngimage.thumb.png.e581c5dde3f00a92497ea7fd2afb401e.pngimage.thumb.png.8521a6dcc107924d93a2c9804ed50f19.png    

So that's max's of 33 / 34 / 35 / 37 with a hot Thursday to follow.  Extraordinary in the truest sense of the word!

That said, if the ECM is on the money, next Friday onwards will bring in much cooler and unsettled conditions.  For how long though?

BBC weather hinting that after the heatwave high pressure will build from Atlantic bringing cooler more settled conditions to most.

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