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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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8 minutes ago, ribster said:

Yes, one day wonder here, temp for today slightly revised down and more so for next four days, before dropping away further.

that's a sizeable drop away from south coast / se , not overly cold by any means but still a sizeable drop nonetheless

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Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

*** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

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Looking towards the last third of August, to be sure there are some very good signs from the GEFS 6z!..in the meantime, a significantly better update from Exeter today compared to previous days..but they were preety good to!😜
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Big shift in the GFS  in regards to Thundery weather with main action early in the week being pushed to northern England. Slightly cooler as well but still hot in the south and very warm to hot in north midland and Yorkshire with more pleasant weather to the north of that unless you like heat that is. Sadly it means I'll have to push my water bill up as the garden will need watering most days now. Whats hoping to get away with it.

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GFS kicks the heat away by Wednesday - so if heat isn’t your thing, 4 days to go. After that a few cooler days before high pressure returns for the weekend and starts to warm things back up into the 25-28c range. Much more comfortable!

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Not sure about GFS’ thermal low development Sunday. A bit out of line with other modelling. Changes the wind pattern to one that focuses the heat more in the SE.

The 12z even dares to take that heat low all the way north through the country Tue-Wed. Yet looking at the jet stream charts there’s no support to be found for such movement.

The difference to UKMO for surface max temp potential is in the order of 5 Celsius for Dorset, for example. That model has no wandering heat lows to speak of.

GFS Dodgy = True.

Edited by Singularity
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40 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

UKMO 12z on the other hand maybe bringing something a bit warmer again?

T144: UKMO.thumb.gif.6ecf688b008a7bd34e6482e7d06d36fc.gif

The ecm clusters played with a plume "reload" a few days ago - they've gone cold on it recently though.

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ECM is still humid in a weeks time, the warmer air never really leaving. However with lower pressure, an upper trough close by and a much more unstable atmosphere, there’s more cloud and rain around. So despite 850s being 12-13c, it only translates as mid 20s at best.

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The 12z is more unsettled, whereas the 00z and the gfs run tonight build a high in through next weekend.

Clusters this morning had both as scenarios, and with such differences, we will need to wait and see as time progresses which option wins through.

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5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The 12z is more unsettled, whereas the 00z and the gfs run tonight build a high in through next weekend.

Clusters this morning had both as scenarios, and with such differences, we will need to wait and see as time progresses which option wins through.

626CFC7B-D2A6-4AA4-82AC-6A6C10A331D1.thumb.png.d21b6ce4660e85f94cac7dd4752f7df4.png

I suspect all of this heat around Western Europe will cause a bit of havoc with the models in terms of where they go next.

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So on the basis of this evening's ECM, adding 2-4C to raw values (today's max was 3.3C up on raw max for example), this is what could be expected as a UK maximum in the coming days *IF* it is right. (Not far off those outlandish predictions of last weekend!)

Sat: 35-37

Sun: 35-37

Mon: 35-37 (all these three days have a raw 33 somewhere)

Tues: 33-35

Wed: 33-35

Thursday and Friday may scrape a 30 in the far SE, but after that it's over.

If I were to take a punt at temperatures being at the lower or upper end of the ranges given, I'd go for the lower end - I have a feeling the ECM predictions match up better with reality when there's more cloud around. 

A further note (northerners look away...), the heat is not that localized in the next three days - if you're inside an area from Exeter to Birmingham across to Norwich down to Kent, you'll probably see 30C based on ECM predictions on each of these days.

But as I mentioned earlier ... with cloud around, a really good temperature prediction may not be possible until each morning, lots of cloud will kill it, no cloud will see it soar - EDIT @Mapantz post above is a case in point of what too much cloud will do!

 

Edited by Man With Beard
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8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I suspect all of this heat around Western Europe will cause a bit of havoc with the models in terms of where they go next.

Why? Does extreme heat in Europe have an affect on weather models performance?

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