Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?

[Frosty.]

Jeez nobody wants to post..for 13 HOURS!!!! how pathetic!..anyway..you want it warmer..I remember when this used to be a hot topic?..  

Edited September 4, 2020 by Jon Snow

[NApplewhite]

12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Jeez nobody wants to post..for 13 HOURS!!!! how pathetic!..anyway..you want it warmer?..  

Yes the forums are very quiet. The outputs are showing cool unsettled and windy weather so i think the GEFS P20 is an outlier. 

[DR(S)NO]

11 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Jeez nobody wants to post..for 13 HOURS!!!! how pathetic!..anyway..you want it warmer?..  

Lol JS... I take it you include yourself in this? 

[NApplewhite]

12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Jeez nobody wants to post..for 13 HOURS!!!! how pathetic!..anyway..you want it warmer?..  

[NApplewhite]

I'm assuming everyone is at work and given up on summer and we are now waiting for the snow lovers to start posting in November onwards. 

[NApplewhite]

September is a very tricky month! sometimes the first two weeks are settled i remember that very warm autumn back in 2002 i think (correct me if i am wrong) that had a heatwave until Mid-November  I remember 1986 being a fine foggy month. 

[Frosty.]

Wow I’m glad I brought the model output discussion back from the dead!!!..anyway, looking at the Gfs 6z op, however unlikely it would seem!..given the state of the current output..I wouldn’t kick this out of bed..for sure!

 

Edited September 4, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Don]

32 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I wouldn’t kick this out of bed..for sure!
 

 

I would.  Ready for autumn now. 

[Sky Full]

Well there’s not much to get excited about to be honest, but here’s the +144h charts (10th September) from our four favourite models:

   UKMO                                                          ECM

       

   GFS                                                              GEM

        

Notice how similar they are?  So at least there is plenty of agreement that mid September will be fairly benign (for the south at least) with no significant extremes of any kind.  Yawn.   But I will be the first one complaining when the next big Atlantic storm heads our way.  

There’ll be one along soon.......
 

[Skullzrulerz]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Jeez nobody wants to post..for 13 HOURS!!!! how pathetic!..anyway..you want it warmer..I remember when this used to be a hot topic?..  

Think that's a record isn't it ? 

Me I like the cool weather but I definitely take it settled

Hoepfully we can one last hot spell before it's too late 

[mb018538]

The output is just so tedious, that’s why no one is bothering to post!

[ChannelThunder]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The output is just so tedious, that’s why no one is bothering to post!

A bit like most of the weather this year. Not expecting that to change much.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

The output is just so tedious, that’s why no one is bothering to post!

I said a couple of days back September is our most 'quiet' month, extremes are least likely, nothing can take on a maximum effect in September. Its a month when I traditionally have least to comment on.

Back to the models, all very standard, September fayre, atlantic generally ruling the roost, tropical maritime air followed by returning polar maritime air.. longer term, may see a more concerted drier warmer theme as high pressure noses in from the SW, again pretty common stuff, before we hit autumn proper around the  equinox.

I find September the most trying month of the year, unable to get enthusiastic about it weatherwise.

 

Edited September 4, 2020 by damianslaw

[mountain shadow]

8 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Jeez nobody wants to post..for 13 HOURS!!!! how pathetic!..anyway..you want it warmer..I remember when this used to be a hot topic?..  

How's that looking tonight?

Another failure of positive AAM projections?

[summer blizzard]

Euro pretty unsettled from day 7 onwards.

[MP-R]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

 

I find September the most trying month of the year, unable to get enthusiastic about it weatherwise.

 

On the odd occasion it’s actually settled, it can be lovely. Tuesday, although continuing the spell from late August, was rather nice. However since then it’s rained here every day and I’ve recorded less than 2 hours of sunshine across 3 days.

Hoping for some sunny spells next week when the south at least temporarily gets some influence from high pressure. Or of course the alternative is what has been hinted at a few times, and that’s a substantial low crossing the country next weekend.

It’s funny, I said back in July a number of times how much it felt like September, and here we are in a very similar setup with generally bland mobility off the Atlantic. Much preferred this time last month...

[mushymanrob]

Signs of a positve pressure anomaly developing to our East. At least it should be warmer unsettled, but theres a prospect of a plume or even longer spell of last minute warmth IF pressure develops further to our East.

 

[ICE COLD]

On 03/09/2020 at 15:46, Man With Beard said:

ECM clusters - after an above average week with temps back in the mid 20s for a while, next weekend needs keeping an eye on. A really deep low looks a strong possibility, and if cluster 2 holds the eventual outcome, then a very windy, even stormy weekend could materialise

Further out - still the chance that we could draw heat back up from the south but unlikely I would wager - note how many clusters have a trough anomaly over Europe - this usually prevents warm air circulating from the SW, though it could possibly introduce warm air from the east if the draw comes from the Mediterranean - touch and go because we are rapidly approaching the time of year when easterlies flip into colder solutions, and potentially much colder ones. 

Overall, though, I'm sensing a much more active Atlantic than usual for September - a slightly displaced jet to the north means most of the unsettled weather is staying north in the next week, and our chances of settled weather will continue to rely on a northerly tracking jet for the foreseeable - any southerly correction will put us in a wet/windy cycle.

 

The clusters looking like they’ve picked up on a very nasty storm for next weekend MWB . 
ECM 0z at T192 now that’s deep 

[Frosty.]

Remember Gang, summers over, kaput..but there’s still some fine and warmer weather ahead for a time across the south at least according to the ECM 0z ensemble mean..among others!.. but from the mid range it turns more generally changeable / unsettled...finally, the Gfs 0z op wasn’t bad at all, it probably represented the best possible outcome for the upcoming period!..anyway..we are inching towards winter..let’s hope it delivers..for a goddamn change..solar minima blah blah..fingers crossed!!!!  

Edited September 5, 2020 by Jon Snow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS way out again, has the low miles out to our NW, EC will have this correct, first named storm for south uk next Sunday

12Z GFS will correct it

[cyclonic happiness]

7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Remember Gang, summers over, kaput..but there’s still some fine and warmer weather ahead for a time across the south at least according to the ECM 0z ensemble mean..among others!.. but from the mid range it turns more generally changeable / unsettled...finally, the Gfs 0z op wasn’t bad at all, it probably represented the best possible outcome for the upcoming period!..anyway..we are inching towards winter..let’s hope it delivers..for a goddamn change!!!!  

Well, it'd have to go a bloomin long way to beat last winter's 1/2 hour of sleet and zero lying snow.

We even had more frost in October than the whole of winter last year.

Looks like next week the jet stream is slowly edging south as the week moves on, so there could be quite a lot of rain for Scotland again later on in the week.

Down here (Midlands) just the usually grey skies and boredom we've all come to know and love

[mb018538]

Make the most of this weekend and next week folks - next weekend is potentially looking quite bleak. The largest cluster (which the op didn't follow today) just about keeps a ridge in place keeping the worst of the weather out of the way, but there is a reasonable chance of a named storm if the OP (below) is along the right lines.

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Make the most of this weekend and next week folks - next weekend is potentially looking quite bleak. The largest cluster (which the op didn't follow today) just about keeps a ridge in place keeping the worst of the weather out of the way, but there is a reasonable chance of a named storm if the OP (below) is along the right lines.

When viewing the mean the op looks a pretty big outlier

[mb018538]

22 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

When viewing the mean the op looks a pretty big outlier

It's not the biggest outlier I've ever seen - it's still within all of the ensemble boundaries, there are worse runs! By day 9 you have a spread of 996mb to 1024mb on the pressure though, so very uncertain either way.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational..would I be correct in thinking next Tuesday looks best, as in warmest and finest across southern u k?...there’s no need to answer this..you’re goddamn right Frosty!