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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

Can someone explain why the Countryfile forecast for Thursday was so so low at 24c for london, compared to MO which hasnt gone any lower than 26 c even for sunday and is showing 30 + for Thursday and every other model is far higher than what the Meteo group has suggested.

I felt embarrassed for Darren Bett with what he was showing.

Edited by seaside 60
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
4 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Can someone explain why the Countryfile forecast for Thursday was so so low at 24c for london, compared to MO which hasnt gone any lower than 26 c even for sunday and is showing 30 + for Thursday and every other model is far higher than what the Meteo group has suggested.

I felt embarrassed for Darren Bett with what he was showing.

Cloud cover?... no one can nail this far off just where/when the thunderstorms/showers will fall , and under those temps will be much lower then if it was clearer sunny/bright skies.

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

Cloud cover?... no one can nail this far off just where/when the thunderstorms/showers will fall , and under those temps will be much lower then if it was clearer sunny/bright skies.

I honestly dont believe that cloud cover will make much difference with the amount of inbuilt ambient heat in the atmosphere, the ground and buildings.
However I  take your point but when its possibly already 22c plus over night, ( talking about london here)...

QUOTE from PM
Meteo/BBC use a blend of GFS and ECM data only, Meto use there own Model's which are more up to date and UK based, As well as the above. It's been very noticeable since Meteo took over UKMO contract. 

Surely their models cant be that much apart for thursday.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
15 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

I honestly dont believe that cloud cover will make much difference with the amount of inbuilt ambient heat in the atmosphere, the ground and buildings.
However I  take your point but when its possibly already 22c plus over night, ( talking about london here)...

QUOTE from PM
Meteo/BBC use a blend of GFS and ECM data only, Meto use there own Model's which are more up to date and UK based, As well as the above. It's been very noticeable since Meteo took over UKMO contract. 

Surely their models cant be that much apart for thursday.

The BBC are not as accurate as they once were, for example 6 months ago the GFS were consistently predicting a minor snow event here in Derby for 7 days ahead of it happening, the BBC were having non of it until the 13.30 forecast, just 30 mins before it snowed. (Feb 11th).  Personally, i find the GFS ECM and NOAA charts when in agreement more accurate then the BBC outlook, so i dont use it.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Just now, mushymanrob said:

The BBC are not as accurate as they once were, for example 6 months ago the GFS were consistently predicting a minor snow event here in Derby for 7 days ahead of it happening, the BBC were having non of it until the 13.30 forecast, just 30 mins before it snowed. (Feb 11th).  Personally, i find the GFS ECM and NOAA charts when in agreement more accurate then the BBC outlook, so i dont use it.

 

The BBC use ECM most of the time - when you look at their nightly extended forecast, the pressure sequence is usually the 00z ECM op run. I just don’t like how they use that and say x will happen, I’ve seen them use massive hot/cold ensemble outliers and base their extended outlook on it.....just seems foolish to me.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
24 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

I honestly dont believe that cloud cover will make much difference with the amount of inbuilt ambient heat in the atmosphere, the ground and buildings.
However I  take your point but when its possibly already 22c plus over night, ( talking about london here)...

QUOTE from PM
Meteo/BBC use a blend of GFS and ECM data only, Meto use there own Model's which are more up to date and UK based, As well as the above. It's been very noticeable since Meteo took over UKMO contract. 

Surely their models cant be that much apart for thursday.

As pm they are blended for deciphering.. and with the current set up @+ 24 hrs “tops” your likely see changes however subtle!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

The slide into Autumn seems to be gathering pace with both the GFS 06z and ECM 00z firmly in the same ball park..

 

ECMOPEU00_240_2.jpg

GFSOPEU06_240_2.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
19 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

 

GFSOPEU06_240_2.jpg

If that's autumn Mushy I'll certainly take those uppers all the way through October!

Unsettled maybe but still very much a summery chart.

It seems that things will become more unsettled over time but all the major models look like remaining warm at the very least over the next week or so.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.978dbe626ecd09a682ebb6693a60f3a0.png

Day 10 - fairly deep low likely to be over the UK

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

GFS definitely keeps the humid feel going even into early next week, but one thing that continues to be at a premium is sunshine! Emphasis definitely on scattered thunderstorms almost any day this week with a gradual fall in temperatures day by day after midweek.

h850t850eu.png

Not far off another plume in that chart. If that low would just sink south and then the two heights to the west and northeast, we could get a cracking sunny spell. All very far out of course, subject to change, and a lot of (flashflood)water under the bridge before then.

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
2 hours ago, clark3r said:

Gfs shows raw temp of 36 in London for Wednesday, right conditions could be challenging records? 

I think GFS is overcooking for once and not undercooking as 850s uppers are only 18C for London so I cant see the record being challenged. Your going to need 850s uppers touching 20C for high 30s in temps. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
47 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

I think GFS is overcooking for once and not undercooking as 850s uppers are only 18C for London so I cant see the record being challenged. Your going to need 850s uppers touching 20C for high 30s in temps. 

Not sure this is true necessarily. Many factors come into play including heat from previous days and the dryness of the ground on the continent etc.

If you look back on notable hot spells of the past, they didn't always have very high 850 hPa temps.

August 3rd 1990 is a prime example- doesn't look that impressive at first glance really on the 850 hPa chart.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Weather Preferences: Anything non-disruptive, and some variety
  • Location: Horsham

It makes me laugh how some people in July were writing off August, just because x number of recent years have had mediocre to poor Augusts. Now we've swung the pendulum the other way and I have to sweat profusely for a week and a half because there is no escape from these sub-tropical conditions.

Edited by al78
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
8 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Aye, smacks of an Easterly to me, showery in the South, drier and sunnier in the North, we wouldnt get a hot southerly but a warm, southerly sourced easterly?.. It wont be as hot as current conditions though, but better then average?

I don’t think it’s as cut off as you do .... hence less easterly in my world and more westerly .....

4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.978dbe626ecd09a682ebb6693a60f3a0.png

Day 10 - fairly deep low likely to be over the UK

Cluster 2 doesn’t look deep but then day 11 puts paid to any hope !  Going to be a Houdini act to get out of that one ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.978dbe626ecd09a682ebb6693a60f3a0.png

Day 10 - fairly deep low likely to be over the UK

I don't think there's any way to spin that except unsettled and average temps at very best.

Considering @Tamara's post above, it will be interesting to see if this is an example of an NWP overreaction to other as yet uncertain signals?

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
6 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Meteo/BBC use a blend of GFS and ECM data only, Meto use there own Model's which are more up to date and UK based, As well as the above. It's been very noticeable since Meteo took over UKMO contract for the BBC. A shame really to what used to be good British forecasting.. And there graphics are very sporadic compared to the old version.

Hello 

 

So why then don't the BBC use Ukmo instead of the Meto if meteo don't use ?  Is it about saving money but getting worse forecasts ?? 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
10 minutes ago, offerman said:

Hello 

 

So why then don't the BBC use Ukmo instead of the Meto if meteo don't use ?  Is it about saving money but getting worse forecasts ?? 

Correct. Quality of service will always come second to saving money!

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