Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Holy guacamole! What a sight the 00z run is to wake up to. Basically getting stewed for a week with storms galore and 30+ degrees every day, with a few days shooting over 35c! 

Brace yourselves everyone, looks well and truly like we are on the verge of properly going into the furnace. 

Edited August 6, 2020 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO pretty consistent on the passage of events early next week.

      

Looks like by Wednesday we may start to see a more significant area of low heights form at it begins to interact with that shallow Atlantic trough. So perhaps a more widespread outbreak of showers and thunderstorm developing by midweek, however the timing of this is uncertain and will be more drawn out than the normal set up due to how far north the main arm of the jetstream is going. By the way, yet again temperatures will be hot to very hot across the south with this extending northwards during the first part of next week.

GFS also looking god for the first half of next week too, however it is still struggling to get the proper shape of the longwave pattern right with that weaker southern arm dipping into the Bay of Biscay.

      

Just a random little note about the GFS, it has a high of 33C for Friday, but 34C on Saturday.

So five, perhaps six days where 32C+ could be reached in the south in a row. More limited in the north of course.

 

Also a few posts have been hidden from last night, please refrain from making personal comments please. Thank you  

Edited August 6, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[kold weather]

For the SE the models suggests we are going to see one of the most sustained hot spells we've seen. It may not have the length of the crazy 76 spell, but a realistic chance that 32c is breached for 5 days in a row. Far from impossible that most days get close to or above 35c in that little run as well.

Very stagnant heat coming up for the SE and there is going to be little relief from it once it's here.

Beyond that strengthening hints of a cool down of sorts but watch this space on that front...

[Guest]

Pretty much as you were this morning, likely to be hot in the south for a good 4-6 days and with temps into the low 30’s it’s likely to feel pretty humid at times too with the risk of slowing moving popcorn type thunderstorms driven by high PWAT potential. First though a lot of cloud and moisture to clear, it’s drizzled all night here and there is a lot of cloud downstream that looks pretty robust, can only see the cloud breaking across the extreme SE anytime soon and will likely limit any decent buildup of heat today to run into tomorrow’s scorcher. 

[bluearmy]

Still no sense of direction for next week beyond hot, humid and thundery ....... probably .....  well certainly for the first couple days 

trying to pin down what that upper trough will do in the upcoming set up is proving more than a little difficult for the nwp ....

[Daniel]

Just had a look at gfs for here in Southampton it has 30cFriday 33cSaturday sunday32c Monday33c Tuesday33c Wednesday33c These are all adding 1c so could be more. Most intense prolonged heat for some years take care guys! 

[bluearmy]

Ec op has a more notable feature mid Atlantic day 5.  That’s potentially going to move the remainder of the run  on a bit of a tangent with more easterly push than previous runs in the day 6/7 period (unless the Atlantic digs south which is possible but unlikely ).  This run seems to add more uncertainty than provide any clarity which is not a surprise 

Edited August 6, 2020 by bluearmy

[clark3r]

What a gfs run mid thirties basically from Friday until Tuesday maybe Wednesday exceptional for se uk night time temps no lower than 21 

[northwestsnow]

EC looks hot and increasingly humid as we head through the weekend ...

Fingers crossed for some decent thunderstorms...

[Singularity]

Slight increase in heat coverage and persistence from GFS and - as of +168 - ECM 00z runs.

The thing that’s been a bit suspicious about mid-next week is the lack of a clear Atlantic trough approach - just a vast slack area to our west.

The ECM 00z has changed that... and I wonder what the odds are that the trough approaches while far south enough that we see the hot air drawn north ahead of it, in a more traditional manner than having a broad heat low slowly drift up across the UK.

Could be a sluggish affair even then - hot through Thu/Fri. A possibility to watch.  

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS explodes thunderstorms across the Midlands /N England/E Wales Sunday night

 

Edited August 6, 2020 by CreweCold

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

GFS explodes thunderstorms across the Midlands /N England Sunday night

Best of both worlds for you then CC - avoid the extreme heat and get some pyrotechnics!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Best of both worlds for you then CC - avoid the extreme heat and get some pyrotechnics!

In an ideal world...

Looks like somewhere will get a light show.

Edited August 6, 2020 by CreweCold

[mb018538]

Pretty spectacular to see 850s averaging 17/18c for a week straight! The next week is going to be stifling in places, especially as humidity increases into next week!

Edited August 6, 2020 by mb018538

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

Well I don't mind if you have them all

edit - actually going out to Wednesday it's precipitation rain doesn't really show that much , not sure how much stock I would take from that Sunday night chart , probably all change anyway next few runs

the one I do agree with CreweCold is that the S/SE can keep the heat I do not want it

Yes I agree , precip charts probably not to be taken too seriously beyond a couple of days.

The SE does look very hot over the upcoming period though, mid 30s is a smidge too high for me personally.

The humidity will also be quite high I would imagine.

[Man With Beard]

Ecm this morning has a few changes - first, raw temps for Saturday (34C) are now higher than Friday (33C) - as noted many times, add somewhere between 2 and 4 degrees to this, occasionally even 5, and you'll probably get the actual maximum. Sunday much more widely hot across the southern half but slightly down on Saturday. Monday to Wednesday have raw maxes between 30 and 32, so Wednesday comes back into the "heatwave fold", but not record breaking potential on those days now, at least on this run!

Worth bearing in mind 

- models don't particularly like easterlies so short teem variance is to be expected

- more extensive thundery areas could crush those maximums next week at very short notice

- can we please stop knocking the NWP. Anomaly charts are great for trends but they can't tell me what weather I might get on a certain day, which the NWP does very well (usually) within 6 days.

[Paul]

New Thread
I've done it a bit differently this morning and opened a fresh thread by splitting out the posts from this morning from the old thread into here, as the old one was a bit long and starting to grind the gears a bit. 

If you're wanting to learn more about meteorology, please take a look at the Learning and Research area.

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[Frosty.]

Well I’ve just looked at the GEFS 0z mean and all I can say is WOW!!..in a nutshell it’s summery from start to finish, indeed it’s very summery for much of it!..it seems the best of summer is still to come..I’m so much excited!

Edited August 6, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Mark wheeler]

Later frames of the Navgem .

The last frame is actually the only time 20c uppers make inroads in to England . 

[johnholmes]

re this

Anomaly charts are great for trends but they can't tell me what weather I might get on a certain day, which the NWP does very well (usually) within 6 days.

I do agree that, good as it is to see folk looking and using these charts, sometimes the summary of what the poster says they show is, in my view, not really correct. As MWB posts they are not for surface detail at all. They can, when used carefully, give a very good idea of what the general weather is likely to be in the 6-10 day range and can be useful in the 8-14 day outlook also.. 

[NApplewhite]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Best of both worlds for you then CC - avoid the extreme heat and get some pyrotechnics!

No heat in Wales still we miss out on the fun. Average temperatures apart from tomorrow. We can expect some thunderstorms though

[NApplewhite]

Its a nightmare living in Wales!

[sheikhy]

Unbelievable charts from all 3 of the main models!!heatwave conditions across england for nearly a week!!?

 

 

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Its a nightmare living in Wales!

But a beautiful country.

[clark3r]

There is some evidence the peak of the 850s may come 12th 13th august long way to go and as you know things are constantly changing,