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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

*** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

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For the SE the models suggests we are going to see one of the most sustained hot spells we've seen. It may not have the length of the crazy 76 spell, but a realistic chance that 32c is breached for 5 days in a row. Far from impossible that most days get close to or above 35c in that little run as well.

Very stagnant heat coming up for the SE and there is going to be little relief from it once it's here.

Beyond that strengthening hints of a cool down of sorts but watch this space on that front...

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Pretty much as you were this morning, likely to be hot in the south for a good 4-6 days and with temps into the low 30’s it’s likely to feel pretty humid at times too with the risk of slowing moving popcorn type thunderstorms driven by high PWAT potential. First though a lot of cloud and moisture to clear, it’s drizzled all night here and there is a lot of cloud downstream that looks pretty robust, can only see the cloud breaking across the extreme SE anytime soon and will likely limit any decent buildup of heat today to run into tomorrow’s scorcher. 

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Still no sense of direction for next week beyond hot, humid and thundery ....... probably .....  well certainly for the first couple days 

trying to pin down what that upper trough will do in the upcoming set up is proving more than a little difficult for the nwp ....

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Just had a look at gfs for here in Southampton it has 30cFriday 33cSaturday sunday32c Monday33c Tuesday33c Wednesday33c These are all adding 1c so could be more. Most intense prolonged heat for some years take care guys! 

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Ec op has a more notable feature mid Atlantic day 5.  That’s potentially going to move the remainder of the run  on a bit of a tangent with more easterly push than previous runs in the day 6/7 period (unless the Atlantic digs south which is possible but unlikely ).  This run seems to add more uncertainty than provide any clarity which is not a surprise 

Edited by bluearmy
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What a gfs run mid thirties basically from Friday until Tuesday maybe Wednesday exceptional for se uk night time temps no lower than 21 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

GFS explodes thunderstorms across the Midlands /N England Sunday night

Best of both worlds for you then CC - avoid the extreme heat and get some pyrotechnics!

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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Best of both worlds for you then CC - avoid the extreme heat and get some pyrotechnics!

In an ideal world...

Looks like somewhere will get a light show.

Edited by CreweCold
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10 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

Well I don't mind if you have them all

edit - actually going out to Wednesday it's precipitation rain doesn't really show that much , not sure how much stock I would take from that Sunday night chart , probably all change anyway next few runs

the one I do agree with CreweCold is that the S/SE can keep the heat I do not want it

Yes I agree , precip charts probably not to be taken too seriously beyond a couple of days.

The SE does look very hot over the upcoming period though, mid 30s is a smidge too high for me personally.

The humidity will also be quite high I would imagine.

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I've done it a bit differently this morning and opened a fresh thread by splitting out the posts from this morning from the old thread into here, as the old one was a bit long and starting to grind the gears a bit. 

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ECMWF EPS
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re this

Anomaly charts are great for trends but they can't tell me what weather I might get on a certain day, which the NWP does very well (usually) within 6 days.

I do agree that, good as it is to see folk looking and using these charts, sometimes the summary of what the poster says they show is, in my view, not really correct. As MWB posts they are not for surface detail at all. They can, when used carefully, give a very good idea of what the general weather is likely to be in the 6-10 day range and can be useful in the 8-14 day outlook also.. 

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1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Best of both worlds for you then CC - avoid the extreme heat and get some pyrotechnics!

No heat in Wales still we miss out on the fun. Average temperatures apart from tomorrow. We can expect some thunderstorms though

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There is some evidence the peak of the 850s may come 12th 13th august long way to go and as you know things are constantly changing, 

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