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Thunder Snow

Hurricane Isaias 09L: N. Atlantic

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Pronounciation here of #Isaias for when it is named. Currently Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, with Tropical Storm warnings already for 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, including Vieques, and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, the British Virgin Islands, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.
The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin.
The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.
The government of St. Maartin has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maartin.

 

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I love the name!  However,  none of the major models are keen to develop Isaias into a hurricane. Is the Atlantic bathed in Saharan air again?

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3 hours ago, karyo said:

I love the name!  However,  none of the major models are keen to develop Isaias into a hurricane. Is the Atlantic bathed in Saharan air again?

It has two competing centres delaying strengthening and then hits an a low trying to recurve it and shear it.

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Yes. The competing centers are gone and it looks like a center is forming.

 

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Someone seems interested......

 

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Latest recon still shows an open wave with the wave essentially made up of three big clumps of vorcity. The center is trying to form at the confluence of the middle and southern.

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We finally have Isaias ( I love the name!) with 50mph winds. The forward speed of the storm has slowed down a bit from 25mph yesterday to 18mph now so this can reduce shear.

However, Isaias has to face the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola which is likely to weaken him considerably.  

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Low level Center appears to be relocating off the north east coast of Haiti, the storm it seems will survive the islands comfortably. Center still looks elongated however.

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2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Low level Center appears to be relocating off the north east coast of Haiti, the storm it seems will survive the islands comfortably. Center still looks elongated however.

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Yes, the updated ECM is an upgrade in the sense that it keeps Isaias strong. In fact, it is a very exciting run as it shows the storm affecting the entire east US coast!

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Posted (edited)

Really interesting evolution yesterday which meant it beat the odds against Hispaniola.

The whole southern vortex opened up as it approached land and as the MLC moved offshore further north a surface low formed along with it. The frictional effects of northern Hispaniola actually then tightened the new low and consolidated its southern flank. This combined with a favourable shear motion helped to really kick this thing off and has continued to support several large hot towers blowing up along the shore of Hispaniola.

Not uncommon to see this happen to storms however it is rather for Hispaniola to create internal changes that support development, this was about the only possible evolution that could do that.

Edited by kold weather
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Any good webcams to look at?

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It looks like it won't make it to category 2 based on the latest forecast. Still expected to affect the Bahamas and then the east coast of the US as a category 1. 

If anything, the afternoon models seem to have edged the track a bit further west so more likely to make landfall somewhere in the carolinas

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Very good analysis from the Weather Channel. Basically Isaias is facing difficulties because of dry air from the southwest and wind shear. Most of the storm activity is to the east of the center.

 

 

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After having a weaker phase yesterday & overnight with the system decoupling - This morning has seen a much better circulation developing with a nice circular shape now- out the outskirts of Florida

A7BC4F80-7603-49D5-B5B9-BEDC0494DB9F.thumb.jpeg.f0de43a0a04c8a3036e111a5c4b966fe.jpeg

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Isaias stayed over the warm Atlantic waters (slightly to the east of the forecast which had him scraping Florida). As a result, he has managed to fight off the strong shear and gained a bit of strength. Current pressure: 994mbs, winds 70mph. There is a chance he may make it to category 1 status before making landfall in Carolinas.  Up to 7 inches of rainfall are expected in places.

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Looking at the NHC's newest forecast it's predicted to up itself to a Cat 1 just before making landfall just north of Charleston around 1am BST (8pm EST).  Couple of Webcams I've found if anyone's interested.

Cam is over-looking the salt marshlands at Charleston.  They are only about 2"ASL and the surge is predicted to be about 2" - 4" so as long as their power holds for the cam, we may see the surge come through later tonight.

And a Cam from the Dead Dog Saloon (on the harbours edge), about 70 miles further up the coast (currently they are getting it storm ready by clearing away tables/chairs etc)

usa-south-carolina-dead-dog-stage.jpg
WWW.WEBCAMTAXI.COM

Live Webcam Streaming of Dead Dog Saloon restaurant and bar, on this cam you can get a glimpse of what’s going on, Murrells Inlet, SC, USA

 

Edited by Ryukai

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