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Anybody else here take an interest in the stock markets? It's something I paid a lot more attention to when bored in lockdown and we are in a particularly interesting period at the moment. 

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As you can see from the above the market crashed in mid March amongst all the coronavirus uncertainty (the Dow is shown here). Subsequently unemployment skyocketed and GDP went down by huge amounts. So why did the markets go back up? They are now at levels not far off the record levels in mid February. For the US, part of this is because the federal reserve have put in a lot of stimulus into the economy and want to keep things going whilst we are still enduring this virus. The other alternative is that speculation is driving up the markets and we are currently in a big bubble. Whichever way you look at it, markets are out of touch with economic reality and at some point that is going to show, like it did later on in 2008 with the housing boom.

The huge rise in share prices has been largely driven by the technology sector, which is showing a similar pattern to the earlier dotcom boom of 2000. Tesla in particular is generating a lot of talk at the moment. If you had invested in March, you will have gained 4 times the amount back at this moment in time. However Tesla made profits yet again in the last quarter despite the covid lockdown and outbreak. Are we about to see a big breakthrough for electric cars that investors are pricing in, or is it all just speculation?

Lots of interesting stuff going on but I think the markets could crash later this year. Anyone else follow this? Or is it just me? Haha

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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I've been fascinated by the markets for a while and you are correct Quicksilver things are very interesting at the moment.  I think some sort of major downward correction is likely later this year or possibly earlier next year.   The recovery since March is a result of all the economic stimulus rather than any improvement in the global economy and other bizarre activity is the likes of Hertz an essentially bust company has seen its stock price go up!  Metal and commodity prices are also worth watching at the moment, Gold and Silver in particular are going up and up. 

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Posted (edited)

Yup gold and silver are considered safe havens aren't they? which is perhaps an indicator of what lies ahead...

Seems like tech stocks are going through a correction at the moment. Particularly notable is intel following news that it's next gen processors would be delayed by 6 months, shares dropped a whopping 16%!, think that is way to much given it won't harm their business that much... AMD's share price overtook it for the first time as a result.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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  • 4 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

Not much to report on the stock market in recent times really. Stocks in general have continued rallying and the S&P500 hit a new high today. However there is a huge disconnect between the stock market and the economy that is unsustainable. I think further economic trouble will come later this year as the markets haven't factored the impacts of covid. This period reminds me of the small crash of March 2008 when stocks initially went down sharply after the collapse of Bear Stearns, only to recover nicely by August. By September Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and the stock markets dropped to 50% of their value during that month by March 2009.

So fairly quiet for now. Silver and gold commodities crashed after a huge rally but are now rising again. I get a feeling that another market correction may be around the corner too. Lets see what happens. September is traditionally a bad month for stocks and we have the added variable of an election later this year....

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Telsa one of the big movers in the last day or so

Yup back on March 17th Tesla was ~$360 a share and has now gone up to $1887 a share. So if you got some shares back in March they'd be over 5 times their original value now!

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I think the markets are fascinating at the moment, Tech stocks have gone into hyperspace during this pandemic, I think Tesla are now bigger than Ford, that is just crazy?

There is a mega battle going between equities and commodities such as Gold and Silver, even copper has rallied. Is it realistic that we can have a major economic shut down, loss of earnings and trillions of new money pumped in to economies, substantial job losses and stocks challenge all time highs? I can that just has to go bang at some point, but quite when and how the bits will land is anyone's guess.

If you think you are good at this game (And I am not) then why not get a trading212 account, you can trade for real with a few pounds or get a practice account.

I am glad someone started this thread. 

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I have done pretty well, mainly because of my shares I put into Ocado in the middle of March which turned out to be a good move. However I don't feel comfortable with the markets now. September is traditionally a bad month for stocks and despite the economic situation being far worse in February, stocks in the US have basically rallied to what they were at that point,

This level simply cannot be maintained and I get the impression Trump is doing all he can to inflate the stock market to make the economy look as though its in good hands before the election. We'll get a correction soon followed by the crash later but the timing of any crash is uncertain. The stocks crashed due to the pandemic uncertainty back in early March, they haven't factored the economic impacts yet.

Jerome Powell is making a big speech later about the US economy. Will be interesting to see what comes out of that.

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Stock markets now going a bit crazy. The Dow is within reach of its all time high set in February, you wouldn't think there would be a recession would you?

The notable thing is that there wasn't anything particularly clear driving the markets up, the latest jobs data coming out of the US was a bit underwhelming and any rise has been speculation on good covid news. The markets are still yet to adjust to the economic uncertainties that lie ahead. Gold, silver etc have also dropped sharply today indicating that there is increasing confidence in the US economy.

The fed have put a lot of money into the economy and there are a lot of new traders out there... I just think euphoria has hit the markets. It's all speculation rather then being based on fundamentals....

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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i wouldnt trust the markets right now, im not sure that a current heights are sustainable . i dont play the markets, but have watched them in the past. imho youd have to be a very knowledgeable broker to risk it now..

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2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

i wouldnt trust the markets right now, im not sure that a current heights are sustainable . i dont play the markets, but have watched them in the past. imho youd have to be a very knowledgeable broker to risk it now..

Yup, though the FTSE 100 and other European stocks are still a bit down compared to February, it's the US stocks which have been rising particularly fast. 

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8 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup, though the FTSE 100 and other European stocks are still a bit down compared to February, it's the US stocks which have been rising particularly fast. 

Mostly driven by Tech, that is a bubble that surely has to burst, some of the valuations for companies like Apple and Tesla are just off the scale. I think the difference here in the UK is the FTSE is driven by banks, pharmaceuticals, travel etc which is probably why it has not done so well compared to the US markets.

I would be getting out of Tech, maybe into travel, aviation etc, they won't stay low forever so has to be a good long term punt. Gold has to be good, as they say you can't print Gold, and I think that still has someway to go.

I do like the look of online retailing in China and India, huge markets, pandemic driving more and more online, and massive growth prospects??

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Well today funnily enough saw the NASDAQ get battered with a 5% drop, the Dow dropped 3%. US stocks were rising too fast. The FTSE also got a bit of a beating today.

Is this the start of a crash, or just a correction with more rises to follow?

Get the feeling it might be the latter, just a correction for now but you just don't know.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Well today funnily enough saw the NASDAQ get battered with a 5% drop, the Dow dropped 3%. US stocks were rising too fast. The FTSE also got a bit of a beating today.

Is this the start of a crash, or just a correction with more rises to follow?

Get the feeling it might be the latter, just a correction for now but you just don't know.

I would say if its going over the edge we maybe looking at the traditional black day period October, end of 3 qtr, end of job retention schemes. We ill know more any possible 2nd wave and how deadly it is, plus closer to a vaccine. I think that is the big test for the markets. I am spread between FTSE / EM / GOLD / CASH / 5YR GILTS at the moment, just hedging my bets..

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Another volatile day today, markets were strongly down when the US opened up. Tesla was a further 7% down at one point but ended up 2% up. I managed to cash in on it and cancel out my losses from my other stocks almost, so not bad on what could have been a rough day.... but September is living up to its bad reputation so far, market volatility is back.

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Market volatility continues through this week. Another day of losses looks likely today following a poor US jobs report.

Also hope nobody for whatever reason has Hammerson shares, they dipped a huge 92% today...

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On 10/09/2020 at 19:22, Quicksilver1989 said:

Market volatility continues through this week. Another day of losses looks likely today following a poor US jobs report.

Also hope nobody for whatever reason has Hammerson shares, they dipped a huge 92% today...

Do you do day trading? I could never master that, I much prefer trying to balance a portfolio, moving thing around just to inch up over time etc?

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On 11/09/2020 at 23:56, HighPressure said:

Do you do day trading? I could never master that, I much prefer trying to balance a portfolio, moving thing around just to inch up over time etc?

Rarely as I think day trading is too volatile. I put money down after March because the markets crashed so much. Sold at the end of August however as September is usually a bad month and the US election is nearby.

Invested this week as the falls last week were pretty sharp but will probably sell on Friday as I don't feel confident in the market now.

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On 21/09/2020 at 21:03, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup, Monday starts the week with some sharp falls on the market. Could see that coming....

So where was the money going? Gold was down, stocks were down and it wasn't going into the Bond markets?

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19 hours ago, HighPressure said:

So where was the money going? Gold was down, stocks were down and it wasn't going into the Bond markets?

I'm not sure but something is seriously off. I think the electric car bubble is popping with all the manufacturers down 10% or more (Tesla etc).

Meanwhile, an obscure company called SPI energy announced today they were manufacturing electric cars. Their stock was up 4000% at one point today. I made £26 in 10 minutes after only putting £10 down, then sold.

Madness, absolute madness.

Additionally the Dow, Nasdaq and gold are all strongly down again today.

I believe a crash is imminent.

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