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As Tropical Depression 7 has now formed (radar would suggest an upgrade this morning to Gonzales) i thought i would create the customary thread. Models take this generally WNW through the Antilles and the Caribbean.

Plus points are that shear is fairly light and dry air not currently a problem however an upper level high well north of the system is expected to increase the dry air and the speed of the storm (itself creating relative westerly shear as it speeds up), for this reason the storm is forecast by the Euro to die although the NHC keep it alive. As the upper level high is moving west faster than the storm it's best chance of survival is either to strengthen early and slow (steering currents are weaker the stronger the storm is) or to make it towards the western Caribbean/Gulf. Track is fairly south right now but the stronger it is, the more likely it will feel a weakness from a low exiting the east coast around day 6. 


Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Yes, seems we need a powered person to change the thread title. 

Now expected to become a Hurricane in 24 hours although the NHC suggest a harder drop afterwards down to 45mph. 

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Appears to be having some dry air issues right now but a pretty shot none the less.


Track has shifted north a bit


Current strength is 65mph, 997mb. 

INIT 23/0900Z 10.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

12H 23/1800Z 10.1N 48.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

24H 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.1W 70 KT 80 MPH

36H 24/1800Z 10.9N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

48H 25/0600Z 11.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

60H 25/1800Z 12.2N 60.1W 70 KT 80 MPH

72H 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

96H 27/0600Z 14.8N 68.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

120H 28/0600Z 16.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

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The core is taking in dry air. It is trying to mix it out and tighten but its ragged and i would imagine unlikely to strengthen much tonight. 

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