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August 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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19.3c to the 12th 3.3c above the 61 to 90 average 2.4c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 19.3c to the 12th Current low this month 15.6c

18.1c to the 9th 2.2c above the 61 to 90 average 1.2c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 18.1c to the 9th Current low this month 15.6c to

Table of forecasts for August 2020 The numbers in brackets show your order of entry into the contest(s).    CET _ EWP _ Forecaster _________________________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster _____

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51 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Hadley came in at 18.4C to the 10th so actually only since 2018. The first half is where we get more notable.

It looks very likely that the first half of this month will come in over 19*C, and the warmest first half of August since 2004 or possibly 2003.  As it stands now, even if it does cool off significantly during the second half of the month, any finish below the 17s looks very unlikely now.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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45 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

It looks very likely that the first half of this month will come in over 19*C, and the warmest first half of August since 2004 or possibly 2003.  As it stands now, even if it does cool off significantly during the second half of the month, any finish below the 17s looks very unlikely now.

Yes good chance will end up with the warmest first half to August since 2003. Good to compare with 1995 as well. In 2003 the heat relented mid month onwards, 1995 it didn't until the very tail end. Signs are things will cool off notably next week. Just seen stats, both 2003 and 1995 returned 19.8 degrees by 16th. Another hot month was 1997 get forgotten about that one because it was often wet, but it was exceptionally humid, worse than this month I remember.

Edited by damianslaw
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5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes good chance will end up with the warmest first half to August since 2003. Good to compare with 1995 as well. In 2003 the heat relented mid month onwards, 1995 it didn't until the very tail end. Signs are things will cool off notably next week. Just seen stats, both 2003 and 1995 returned 19.8 degrees by 16th. Another hot month was 1997 get forgotten about that one because it was often wet, but it was exceptionally humid, worse than this month I remember.

this year the heat did not get going until the 5th and it looks like a nine to ten day hot spell.  In 2003 yes the heat moderated after mid-month although it tried to get hot again around the 22nd to 25th, but there was a cool northerly in the closing days of that month.

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1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Be interesting to see what happens as a significant cool off is in the offing with possibly some pretty cool nights as part of it.  

 

BFTP

I think just how cool is very much up in the air though- there's an awful lot of warm air lingering around our shores well into next week, even to the north of the UK.

The other thing is that it's possible it could be a cool blip- no guarantee it will last until the end of the month. Still time for another hot spell before the month is out- look at what happened last year.

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1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Be interesting to see what happens as a significant cool off is in the offing with possibly some pretty cool nights as part of it.  

 

BFTP

The coolest I see at the moment down here is 17c at night and 24c during the day and thats only at the far end ie 24th.

We are on the coast down here and its only down here true, but one would presume it will be warmer inland, 

Also the MO are still taking about warm to very warm till 25th then very warm at times possibly.

So yes a cool down but still above ave for most apart from the north west but thats taken for granted at this time of the year 😀😀 

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12 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I think just how cool is very much up in the air though- there's an awful lot of warm air lingering around our shores well into next week, even to the north of the UK.

The other thing is that it's possible it could be a cool blip- no guarantee it will last until the end of the month. Still time for another hot spell before the month is out- look at what happened last year.

Indeed but I’m expecting maxes of 20-22 in Redhill from weekend for following week as an average.  Cooler nights too.  And I’m seeing even cooler air for last week of Aug....indeed keep and eye on that potential autumnal storm

 

BFTP

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13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

19.3c to the 12th

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.3c to the 12th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Very warm first half to August.

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Sheffield up to 19.1C +2.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

A drop coming for the next five days most likely here due to north sea rubbish mostly.

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5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

19.3c to the 12th

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.3c to the 12th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

In terms of warmth, this really is the 1st half of August we've been waiting for since 2003. Very good chance of recording 18C+ now I think. One poster was suggesting cool nights next week- I really can't see this. A lot of humid air around next week I reckon, which will keep temps up overnight.

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19 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Indeed but I’m expecting maxes of 20-22 in Redhill from weekend for following week as an average.  Cooler nights too.  And I’m seeing even cooler air for last week of Aug....indeed keep and eye on that potential autumnal storm

 

BFTP

On what is the storm based then BFTP?

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12 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

In terms of warmth, this really is the 1st half of August we've been waiting for since 2003. Very good chance of recording 18C+ now I think. One poster was suggesting cool nights next week- I really can't see this. A lot of humid air around next week I reckon, which will keep temps up overnight.

Me S

I think we’ll see it freshen up generally, Redhill now feeling quite fresh already...very pleasant.  But we’ll see what happens 

 

BFTP

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3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

On what is the storm based then BFTP?

Models John? 🤔

image.thumb.gif.952650f1b7e4ad604ab29f2e6d1d429c.gif


ECM.  GFS toying the same way.  Quite deep for August, not unique but potential there for some ‘awful summer weather’ ?

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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EWP only barely started now at 9 mm (as of 11th), probably added 4-6 mm since that report, with heavy rains in southern England ongoing, eventually ten-day GFS reaches a grid average of 50 mm (much more than that in Wales, parts of southwest England), and days 11-16 on GFS run looked quite wet also (estimated 30-40 mm there). All told, that adds up to about 100 mm for the month. 

Looks like CET will hover around current values in the low to mid 19s for a while then start to edge down with a sharper fall near the end. Probably would stay above 17.5 at least to adjustment phase. Can't rule out a finish above 18 as GFS can overplay cold at the time range shown. 

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3 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

John, semantics, deep LP for August...

 

BFTP

You will have to forgive me

semantics?

what is that please, show me a model might help that illustrates what you are suggesting

 

Please ignore the last post as I have just seen a reply to me which I missed, ok the ECMWF, it might be right, it does look like a rather different period starting in the next 4-8 days. NOAA has shown a similar chart now for 3 outputs. Rare for it to be very wrong with that consistency.

Edited by johnholmes
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