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Roger J Smith

August 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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9 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

If there is ever a chance to get a 20C month I reckon this could be it!

If it isn’t it’s only a matter of time!

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

@DAVID SNOW

20c ... 😯

Only day 6 in a month of 31 days.

Of course anything is possible, but ECM and UKMO both start to relax the heat from the west next week.

The GFS may be different, but you have never 'rated' that model in 15 years on netweather.

Stand by what I said, the far NW will pull down the CET.

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2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Only day 6 in a month of 31 days.

Of course anything is possible, but ECM and UKMO both start to relax the heat from the west next week.

The GFS may be different, but you have never 'rated' that model in 15 years on netweather.

Stand by what I said, the far NW will pull down the CET.

It can't - the far NW isn't in the CET zone!

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8 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It can't - the far NW isn't in the CET zone!

Far enough!

Locations of the stations used to calculate the CET.

Pershore college.

Rothamsted.

Stonyhurst.

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Sunny Sheffield up to 16.7C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall 0.9mm 1.4% of the monthly average

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12 hours ago, Don said:

If it isn’t it’s only a matter of time!

We managed it in Jul 2006

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Talk of a 20C month at this early stage is insanely premature. August 2003 landed on 18.3C after a more widespread heatwave at this point in the month.

16 hours ago, Don said:

If it isn’t it’s only a matter of time!

A number of 31-day periods in 1976 and 1995 achieved this feat, but none of them coincided with a calendar month. What made July 2006 the hottest calendar month on record was perfect timing.

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28 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Talk of a 20C month at this early stage is insanely premature. August 2003 landed on 18.3C after a more widespread heatwave at this point in the month.

A number of 31-day periods in 1976 and 1995 achieved this feat, but none of them coincided with a calendar month. What made July 2006 the hottest calendar month on record was perfect timing.

I don't think August 2003 had any record breaking minimum temperatures however.  The forecast minimums are really what's going to boost the CET.

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5 hours ago, The PIT said:

We managed it in Jul 2006

July 2006 had a CET of 19.7c, so not quite.

Edited by Don

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Sunny Sheffield up to 17.6C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

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21 hours ago, Don said:

July 2006 had a CET of 19.7c, so not quite.

Like I said we managed in 2006 so it's certainly possible in the CET zone

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17.5c to the 7th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.5c to the 7th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

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Gavin in the other realm estimates a CET of 18.87C to the 21st (and interestingly about 19.2C for the first half). 

Can Roger or anybody else tell us what the hottest first halves are.

Looking at the CET records the only July-August combinations that get close are 2004 and 1705 (15.8/17.6 and 15.6/17.5) assuming no properly cool second half (warm Augusts tend to follow 16.8C+ July's).

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3 hours ago, snowray said:

Wow, up almost 1.5c in two day!😃

Despite managing just under 25C today we should be up to 18C by tomorrow.

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Here are the top first half (taking 1-16 as first half) CET values for Augusts with daily data since 1772, and where they ended up by the 31st. The list includes all years that had a value of 18.0 or higher.

Rank __ Year ___ CET ____ Final Aug value, rank (if < 30)

_ 01 ___ 1975 __ 20.4 ___ 18.7 (3)

_t02 ___ 1995 __ 19.8 ___ 19.2 (1)

_t02 ___ 2003 __ 19.8 ___ 18.3 (5)

_ 04 ___ 1997 __ 19.6 ___ 18.9 (2)

_ 05 ___ 1911 __ 19.3 ___ 18.2 (7) (1747 was t5th)

_ 06 ___ 2004 __ 19.3 ___ 17.6 (t12)

_ 07 ___ 1856 __ 18.9 ___ 16.9

_ 08 ___ 1773 __ 18.8 ___ 17.2 (t25)

_t09 ___ 1792 __ 18.5 ___ 16.9

_t09 ___ 1868 __ 18.5 ___ 16.8 

_t11 ___ 1933 __ 18.5 ___ 17.6 (t12)

_t11 ___ 1800 __ 18.4 ___ 16.8 

_t11 ___ 1990 __ 18.4 ___ 18.0 (9)

_t14 ___ 1884 __ 18.3 ___ 17.2 (t25)

_t14 ___ 1893 __ 18.3 ___ 17.4 (t20)

_ 16 ___ 1938 __ 18.2 ___ 16.3 

_ 17 ___ 1871 __ 18.1 ___ 17.2 (t25)

_ 18 ___ 1947 __ 18.0 ___ 18.5 (4)

=======================================================

A few top Augusts warmed up to their final values from first halves near 17, e.g. 1955, 1976 and 1984. Aug 1899 was 17.8 at both mid-month and end. 

Notable that the first five in this list all held on to top spots (1747 was tied 5th but has no daily data so we don't know where it might have been standing at the 16th).

In all cases, the end of month ranks include the years before 1772, although many of those were lower ranked than even the medium finishers here. 

 

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6 hours ago, snowray said:

Wow, up almost 1.5c in two day!😃

At only 7 to 8 days in, It doesn’t take much, if we we’re 18 days into the month then it would be WOW 🤩 

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