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August 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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24 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Fair enough, like the others my memory did not have that in mind. That said i do recall early August in 06 having quite a high CET despite the fact i can't actually remember any real heat. 

The first week of August 2006 had temperatures mostly around average.

Heathrow, so even cooler away from the SE.

1. 22.9c

2. 23.2c

3. 21.1c

4. 23.0c

5. 27.1c

6. 28.2c

7. 23.5c

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19.3c to the 12th 3.3c above the 61 to 90 average 2.4c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 19.3c to the 12th Current low this month 15.6c

18.1c to the 9th 2.2c above the 61 to 90 average 1.2c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 18.1c to the 9th Current low this month 15.6c to

Table of forecasts for August 2020 The numbers in brackets show your order of entry into the contest(s).    CET _ EWP _ Forecaster _________________________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster _____

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10 hours ago, Don said:

I have to say, I don't remember it being that hot during the first week of August 2018.  However, the stats confirm otherwise! 

August gets a lot of bad press and there's always a narrative of every August being rubbish since 2006. That isn't the case though.

Last year for example around here was the sunniest since 1995, had all but 5 days with maxes above 20C and was actually in the top 5 for mean temps. 2018 too, was also warm, dry and sunny.

If this is a warmer, drier and sunnier than average August it would be the third in succession here. There's a long way to go yet though!

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17.3c to the 1st

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.3c to the 1st
Current low this month 17.3c to the 1st

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7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

17.3c to the 1st

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.3c to the 1st
Current low this month 17.3c to the 1st

Only 0.5c above the 81 to 10 average, it felt dam hot down here.

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9 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Fair enough, like the others my memory did not have that in mind. That said i do recall early August in 06 having quite a high CET despite the fact i can't actually remember any real heat. 

I guess 18.1 and 18.5 are the targets then. 

After the hottest July on record in 2006 the August that followed saw temperatures close to average for the most part, although it did try to get hot again around August 5th to 6th 2006 but it did not make it.  Summer 2018 was actually a very similar summer to 2006 with the third warmest July ever, and in 2018 it was hot in the first week in August but it fizzled out by around the 8th / 9th, and the rest of the month was fairly average, and it did in fact get quite cool late in the month.

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3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

After the hottest July on record in 2006 the August that followed saw temperatures close to average for the most part, although it did try to get hot again around August 5th to 6th 2006 but it did not make it.  Summer 2018 was actually a very similar summer to 2006 with the third warmest July ever, and in 2018 it was hot in the first week in August but it fizzled out by around the 8th / 9th, and the rest of the month was fairly average, and it did in fact get quite cool late in the month.

Oh I remember Aug 06 well, I also remember the running CET being quite high for a while.

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16.7c to the 2nd

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.3c to the 1st
Current low this month 16.7c to the 2nd

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I am very surprised that there hasnt been a lot of last minute changes on the temperature guesses, esp from people quoting lower guesses. 

I am beginning to think that ever my 17.7c is going to be to low.

Edited by seaside 60
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Late... but never mind, my last guess was very wrong. Anyway I'll go with 13.5°C. The "warm spell" to get evaporated out of existence bar the SE corner end of week, then the second half will be the coldest second half to any August in recorded history. Rain = 129mm.

Edited by Thundershine
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4 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

I am very surprised that there hasnt been a lot of last minute changes on the temperature guesses, esp from people quoting lower guesses. 

I am beginning to think that ever my 17.7c is going to be to low.

August is the first month that can really produce a much cooler second half when it wants to and the long range signals are a bit more marginal than some suggest. I'm probably too low but I don't think 17c+ is nailed on.

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On 02/08/2020 at 12:06, reef said:

August gets a lot of bad press and there's always a narrative of every August being rubbish since 2006. That isn't the case though.

Last year for example around here was the sunniest since 1995, had all but 5 days with maxes above 20C and was actually in the top 5 for mean temps. 2018 too, was also warm, dry and sunny.

If this is a warmer, drier and sunnier than average August it would be the third in succession here. There's a long way to go yet though!

There definitely seems to be more regional variation in August during recent years - I had to check my stats after reading your post and my memory of last year being fairly poor in the west seems right, we had 235mm rain and only 9 dry days - for comparison in July 2020 we had 158mm and 13 dry days (and in May 2020 for example, 32mm and 25 dry days).  The Met Office anomaly maps back this up - the last 12 Augusts (bar 2011) all show a similar pattern (source https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-actual-and-anomaly-maps2019_8_Rainfall_Actual.gif

The sunshine maps are more telling: we have to go back to 2005 to see the yellows over our part of the UK in west Wales in August. For every other month between April and October we only have to go back to 2018 to see the yellows... so a dry sunny August has definitely been a rarity here and hopefully this will be the one that bucks the trend!

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16.0c to the 3rd

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.3c to the 1st
Current low this month 16.0c to the 3rd

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15.6c to the 4th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.3c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

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2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Some maybe forgetting that the NW station will no doubt limit the CET.

You have to have the Prile  to win, a pair just wont cut it.

Yes the really hot temperatures are pretty much confined to the SE. Even for Pershore it’s pretty much one-day wonder. You can see this even now - current CET is below average even though London has been quite warm. 

Edited by cheese
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Sunny Sheffield at 16C -0.6C below average. Rainfall 0.9mm 1.4% of the monthly average.

Some big rises coming for the next six days or so as the hot air hangs over the CET zone. So well above most likely by this time next week.

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16.1c to the 5th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.3c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

16.1c to the 5th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 17.3c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

And we're off - goodbye below average!

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2 hours ago, Don said:

And we're off - goodbye below average!

Expecting quite a remarkbale boost to the CET over the next 7 days.  Not only are we looking at exceptionally high maximum temperatures, we are also looking at some exceptionally warm minimum temperatures too.  Wouldn't be surpised if we break the daily CET record at some point.

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20 minutes ago, Earthshine said: Wouldn't be surpised if we break the daily CET record at some point.

Me neither.  I think my monthly CET guess could well be in trouble! 🤔

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

Me neither.  I think my monthly CET guess could well be in trouble! 🤔

I had a last minute change to 18.5C but even now I'm wondering if that's too low!  If there is ever a chance to get a 20C month I reckon this could be it!

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