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August 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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19.3c to the 12th 3.3c above the 61 to 90 average 2.4c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 19.3c to the 12th Current low this month 15.6c

18.1c to the 9th 2.2c above the 61 to 90 average 1.2c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 18.1c to the 9th Current low this month 15.6c to

Table of forecasts for August 2020 The numbers in brackets show your order of entry into the contest(s).    CET _ EWP _ Forecaster _________________________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster _____

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2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Go for it Steve!

Your always wrong.ūü§£

I always post up the most outlandish temp that why... ūüėāūüėā

One day...

You would already expect it to be well above average...

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Do I hear a 20c..

Yeah, in December!¬†ūü§£

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This is why I leave my guess to the last minute!  I will go for 17.7C and 70mm, please.  I would have not gone this high a few days ago!

Edited by Don
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On 23/07/2020 at 18:49, snowray said:

16.1c and 71.5mm please.

Looks like I'm just in time, can I change to 17.3c please. No change with rainfall.

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Posted (edited)

Table of forecasts for August 2020

The numbers in brackets show your order of entry into the contest(s). 

 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster _________________________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster _______________________

21.5 __200.0_ Lettucing Gutted ( 11 ) _______________ 17.0 __ 76.4 _ bobd29 ( 07 ) ______________________       

20.0 __ ----- _ Steve Murr ( 58 ) ____________________ 17.0 __ 60.0 _ The PIT ( 41 ) ______________________

18.9 __ 24.9 _ 2010cold ( 51 ) _____________________ 17.0 __ 69.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 47 ) ___________________

18.5 __ 70.0 _ Earthshine ( 40 ) ____________________ 17.0 __ 55.0 _ Mulzy ( 54 ) ________________________

______________________________________________17.0 __ ----- _ Kentish Man ( 64 ) ___________________

18.3 __ 47.0 _ joggs ( 26 ) ________________________ 17.0 __ 61.0 _ davehsug ( L1-4 ) ___________________

18.3 __ 46.0 _ Radiating Dendrite ( 32 ) ______________ 16.9 __ 76.0 _ Twilight ( 08 ) _______________________

18.2 __ 63.2 _ Dog Toffee ( 63 ) ____________________ 16.9 __ ----- _ sundog ( 31 ) ________________________

18.2 __ 70.0 _ Weather Enthusiast91 ( 09 to L3-2 ) _____16.9 __ 69.0 _ Norrance ( 45 ) ______________________

18.1 __ 54.4 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 38 ) _______________ 16.8 __ 80.3 _ Roger J Smith ( 33 ) __________________

18.0 __ ----- _ 38.7 C ( 30 ) ________________________16.8 __ ----- _ Duncan McAlister ( 53 ) _______________ 

18.0 __ ----- _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 50 ) _____________ 16.8 __ 66.0 _ Godber1 ( 66 ) ______________________

17.9 __ 53.0 _ virtualsphere ( 10 ) __________________ 16.7 __ 78.2 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 16 ) ______________

17.9 __ 80.0 _ Born From the Void ( 39) _____________ 16.7 __104.0_ brmbrmcar ( 18 ) ____________________

17.8 __ 30.9 _ Let It Snow! ( 35 ) ___________________ 16.6 __ 73.0 _ SteveB ( 17 ) _______________________

17.8 __ 41.0 _ Stargazer ( 49 ) _____________________ 16.5 __ 72.0 _ jonboy ( 43 ) _______________________

17.7 __ 40.0 _ Summer of 95 ( 21 ) _________________ 16.5 __ 85.0 _ J10 ( 56 ) __________________________

______________________________________________16.5 __ 79.7 _ 1990-2019 average _________________

______________________________________________16.4 __ 75.6 _ 1981-2010 average _________________

17.7 __ ----- _ Man with Beard ( 29 ) ________________ 16.3 __ 52.0 _ Timmytour ( 44 ) ____________________

17.7 __ 47.0 _ seaside60 ( 52 ) ____________________ 16.3 __ 87.0 _ Blast from the Past ( L1-1 ) ___________

17.7 __ 70.0 _ Don ( 59 ) _________________________16.2 __ 80.0 _ Summer Shower ( 12 ) _______________

17.6 __ ----- _ Summer Sun ( 28 ) __________________ 16.1 __ 62.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( L1-2 ) ____________

17.6 __ 34.0 _ Captain Shortwave ( 37 ) _____________ 16.0 __ 85.2 _ Polar Gael ( 05 ) ___________________

17.6 __ 68.0 _ Stationary Front ( 42 ) _______________ 16.0 __105.0_ DR(S)NO ( 15 ) ____________________

17.6 __ 68.0 _ daniel* ( L1-4 ) _____________________ 16.0 __100.0_ Stewfox ( 19 ) ______________________

17.5 __ 35.0 _ Leo97t ( 34 ) _______________________

17.5 __ 56.0 _ mb018538 ( 60 ) ____________________16.0 __ 85.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 48 ) _____________

17.4 __ 50.0 _ General Cluster ( 36 ) ________________ 15.9 __ 60.0 _ weather-history ( 22 ) ________________

17.4 __ 66.0 _ DAVID SNOW ( 55 ) _________________ 15.7 __110.0_ Summer Blizzard ( 03 ) ______________

17.4 __ ----- _ Mark Bayley ( 61 ) ___________________ 15.7 __ 85.0 _ JeffC ( 13 ) _______________________

17.3 __ 56.9 _ CheesepuffScott ( 46 ) _______________ 15.5 __105.0_ syed2878 ( 20 ) ____________________

17.3 __ 71.5 _ snowray ( 65, 13.5 ) _________________ 15.0 __105.0_ I Remember Atl 252 ( 06 ) ____________

17.2 __ 57.0 _ Reef ( 23 ) _________________________ 14.8 __111.0_ NeilN ( 01 ) ________________________

17.2 __ 93.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 25 ) ________________

17.2 __ ----- _ damianslaw ( 57 ) ____________________14.6 __105.0_ Shillitocettwo ( 14 ) __________________

17.1 __ ----- _ dancerwithwings ( 24 ) ________________ 14.5 __125.0_ B87 ( 04 ) ________________________

17.1 __ 63.0 _ February1978 ( 62 ) __________________14.4 __ 86.2 _ Weather26 ( 02 ) ___________________

17.1 __100.0_ Relativistic ( 27 to L3-1 ) ______________ 13.5 __129.0_ Thundershine ( L3-3 )

 

17.1 __ 69.0 _ consensus

_______________________________________

Interesting stat, average of first ten forecasts (made 19th to 21st July) was 15.3, one of these was later revised upward so only orders of entry 01-09 went into this along with the revised value. LG had not posted by then (but is now shown as 11th entry). Also not included in that average is 10th entry from virtualsphere who went quite a bit warmer, the first of many (17.9). The average (excl LG) was closer to 16 by about 24th entry (28 July) and the eventual consensus was 17.0. 

66 on-time forecasts, with four that are one day late, 70 in total ... median 17.0 C

Two forecasts revised to become three days late (were 9th and 27th entry, table entries 10-26 should read 9-25, and 28-66 should read 26-64, but remain unedited)

This change shifts the consensus out of the group at 17.0 with equal numbers now above and below 17.05.  

Note: Edited forecast 09 (WE) also changed EWP, forecast 27 (Rel) did not.

==============================================================

EWP Forecasts (in order) 

200_LG ... 129_Thun^^^ 125_B87 ... 111_NN ,,, 110_SB ... 105_IRAtl,shil, syed, ... 104_brm ...100_DR(S)NO, stew, rel

 93_EG ... 87_BFTP^ ... 86.2_wx26 ... 85_Jeff, pSL, J10 ... 80.3_RJS ... 80.0_SumSh, BFTV ...  79.7_90-19

 78.2_KW ... 76.4_bobd ... 76_Twi ... 75.6_81-10 ... 75.2_PG ... 73_Stev ... 72_jon ... 71.5_snow ... 70_Earth, Don, WE91^^^

  69_Norr, MrM .. 68_SF, dan*^.. 66_DS, godb.. 63_Feb78 .. 63.2_DT .. 62_MIA^ .. 61_dave^ ..  60_wx-hist, PIT

 57_Reef ...  56.9_CPS ...  56_mb ... 55_Mul ... 54.4_Feb91 ... 53_virt ... 52_Tim ... 50_GC ..  47_joggs, sea

 46_RD ... 41_star ... 40_Sum95 ...  35_Leo ... 34_Capt ... 30.9_LIS ... 24.9_2010cold

________________________________________

55 on-time forecasts, plus four that are one day late (^) ... then two more marked three days late (^^^) .. one was a revision so only one extra forecast, total of 60 now ... the consensus (median) is now 70.0 mm.

_____________________________________________________________

Note CPS is CheesepuffScott, Capt is CaptainShortwave (who was CPS once in these tables)

 ... 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Just looking at 2013, 2016 and 2013 and it seems Aug 19 may have had the hottest start since 2004. With our warm spell upcoming our targets are 18.4C to the 10th and 17.6C to the 15th as our targets from last year.

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Just now, summer blizzard said:

Just looking at 2013, 2016 and 2013 and it seems Aug 19 may have had the hottest start since 2004. With our warm spell upcoming our targets are 18.4C to the 10th and 17.6C to the 15th as our targets from last year.

What about 2018?

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3 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

That just isn't true 

2018 was 18.5C to the 10th and 18.1C to the 15th

 

Really?  I thought the hot spell was over near the end of July?

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Just now, Don said:

Really?  I thought the hot spell was over near the end of July?

Everyone seems to have forgotten how hot that first week of august was

Maxes for Heathrow were 

1st - 26.5

2nd - 30.4

3rd - 32.6

4th - 29.0

5th - 29.8

6th - 31.0

7th - 31.2

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1981-2010 CET averages and extremes 1772 to 2019

ÔĽŅ¬†¬†

Date ____ Avg CET ___ cum CET ____ MAX 1772-2019 __ MIN 1772-2019 ___ Running CET extremes 1772-2019

_01______ 16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.9 1995 _____ 11.9 1888 ________ 24.9 _ 1995 ____ 11.9 _ 1888

_02 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.6 1995 _____ 11.6 1822 ________ 24.8 _ 1995 ____ 12.2 _1822,1865

_03 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.4 1990 _____ 10.5 1912 ________ 24.3 _ 1995 ____ 11.7 _ 1912

_04______ 17.0 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.4 1975 _____ 11.3 1812 ________ 23.4 _ 1995 ____ 12.0 _ 1865

_05 ______17.3 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.1 2003 _____ 11.3 1812 ________ 22.3 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 _ 1865

_06 ______17.2 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.5 2003 _____ 11.2 1823&1860 ___ 21.6 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 _ 1812

_07______ 16.9 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.8 1975 _____ 11.6 1898 ________ 21.5 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

_08 ______16.8 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.7 1975 _____ 11.5 1823 ________ 21.7 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

_09 ______16.9 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.9 2003 _____ 11.0 1931 ________ 21.7 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

_10______ 16.8 _______ 16.9 _______ 22.5 1773&1997__10.8 1892 ________ 21.3 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

 

_11 ______16.7 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.6 1997 _____ 10.8 1902 ________ 21.1 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 _ 1812

_12 ______16.8 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.2 1911 _____ 10.5 1912 ________ 21.0 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 _ 1812

_13______ 16.3 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.6 1911 _____ 10.5 1881 ________ 21.0 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 _1812, 1912

_14 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.3 1911 _____ 10.8 1912 ________ 20.8 _ 1975 ____ 12.6  _1912

_15 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1893 _____ 10.3 1829 ________ 20.7 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 1912

_16______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1947 ______ 9.5 1888 ________ 20.4 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 1912

_17 ______16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.4 1876 _____ 10.9 1888 ________ 20.1 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 1912

_18 ______16.6 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.6 1893 _____ 10.3 1830 ________ 20.0 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_19 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.8 1932 _____ 10.4 1839 ________ 20.0 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_20 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.9 1995 _____ 10.5 1920 ________ 20.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

 

_21 ______16.4 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1984 ______ 9.8 1850 ________ 20.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_22______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.4 1817 ________ 20.3 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_23 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.3 1877 ________ 20.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_24 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 21.5 1990 ______ 9.1 1864 ________ 20.0 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_25______ 15.8 _______ 16.7 ________ 21.7 2019 ____ 10.5 1787,1843&1864_ 20.0 _1995 ____13.0_1912

_26 ______15.7 _______ 16.6 ________ 20.6 1870 ______ 8.8 1864 ________ 19.9 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_27 ______15.4 _______ 16.6 ________ 22.8 1930 _____ 11.0 1885&1890 ___ 19.8 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_28______ 15.1 _______ 16.5 ________ 23.0 1942 _____ 10.5 1919 ________ 19.6 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_29 ______15.3 _______ 16.5 ________ 20.6 1930 ______ 9.1 1812 ________ 19.4 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_30 ______15.5 _______ 16.5 _______ 19.8 1804&2008__ 9.5 1890 ________ 19.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

ÔĽŅ¬†¬†

_31 ______15.2 _______ 16.4________ 21.3 1906 ______ 9.2 1833 ________ 19.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

__________________________________________________________________

The most recent record minimum CET daily mean in August was on the 9th of 1931. 

The most recent record maximum CET daily mean in August was on the 25th of 2019, before that 30th of 2008 (tied) and before that 9th of 2003. 

 

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24 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Everyone seems to have forgotten how hot that first week of august was

Maxes for Heathrow were 

1st - 26.5

2nd - 30.4

3rd - 32.6

4th - 29.0

5th - 29.8

6th - 31.0

7th - 31.2

I have to say, I don't remember it being that hot during the first week of August 2018.  However, the stats confirm otherwise! 

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10 hours ago, Leo97t said:

Everyone seems to have forgotten how hot that first week of august was

Maxes for Heathrow were 

1st - 26.5

2nd - 30.4

3rd - 32.6

4th - 29.0

5th - 29.8

6th - 31.0

7th - 31.2

Fair enough, like the others my memory did not have that in mind. That said i do recall early August in 06 having quite a high CET despite the fact i can't actually remember any real heat. 

I guess 18.1 and 18.5 are the targets then. 

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