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August 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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19.3c to the 12th 3.3c above the 61 to 90 average 2.4c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 19.3c to the 12th Current low this month 15.6c

18.1c to the 9th 2.2c above the 61 to 90 average 1.2c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 18.1c to the 9th Current low this month 15.6c to

Table of forecasts for August 2020 The numbers in brackets show your order of entry into the contest(s).    CET _ EWP _ Forecaster _________________________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster _____

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Sunny Sheffield down to 17.5C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall 137.6mm 208.2% of the monthly average.

Final landing zone for us looks to be around 17.2 to 17.3C. Unless we get a very cold night I can't see it getting any lower

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Well looking at the data it's our sixth wettest month on record and our 9th warmest by night on record unless we get a extremely cold night tonight which it's unlikely

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18.0c to the 28th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

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4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Looking like a sub 18 month now, finishing mark 17.8 perhaps.

Yes we could end up as low as 17.5C with two chilly days and nights to add on plus the month-end adjustment to come.

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15 minutes ago, Kentish Man said:

Yes we could end up as low as 17.5C with two chilly days and nights to add on plus the month-end adjustment to come.

Yes I'm thinking that. I was expecting 18c by the 29th, but what with rounding up/down I wasn't quite sure that it would actually happen. As to a final figure, well it depends again if that 18c has been rounded up or down, I noticed that temps got as low as 4c in quite a few places last night, and today's max temps look to be in the mid teens so another 0.2c drop should be on the cards. Bank holiday Monday might turn out somewhat milder by the afternoon though as HP temporarily moves in, high teens likely maybe but tonight looks rather cold again, so another drop of 0.1c, possibly 0.2c by the 31st would put us on 17.7 or 17.6.

With the usual downward correction a final figure of 17.5c looks very possible, maybe an outside chance of 17.4c.

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43 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes I'm thinking that. I was expecting 18c by the 29th, but what with rounding up/down I wasn't quite sure that it would actually happen. As to a final figure, well it depends again if that 18c has been rounded up or down, I noticed that temps got as low as 4c in quite a few places last night, and today's max temps look to be in the mid teens so another 0.2c drop should be on the cards. Bank holiday Monday might turn out somewhat milder by the afternoon though as HP temporarily moves in, high teens likely maybe but tonight looks rather cold again, so another drop of 0.1c, possibly 0.2c by the 31st would put us on 17.7 or 17.6.

With the usual downward correction a final figure of 17.5c looks very possible, maybe an outside chance of 17.4c.

That would be quite a drop from mid month point. A month with two very contrasting halves.

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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

That would be quite a drop from mid month point. A month with two very contrasting halves.

Yes quite a drop indeed, I never expected a drop into the mid 17s myself last week.

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Sunny Sheffield down to 17.3C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall at 137.6mm 208.2% of the monthly average

Final figure looks to be 17.1C for us 0.8C  above normal.

Edited by The PIT
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On 30/08/2020 at 09:54, The PIT said:

Well looking at the data it's our sixth wettest month on record and our 9th warmest by night on record unless we get a extremely cold night tonight which it's unlikely

Well we got the cold night it was the sixth warmest month by night for us not the 9th and still is. Last night knocked it down from 13.3C to 13.2C. It's also joint 6th warmest summer by night since our records began back in 1955.

Edited by The PIT
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17.8c to the 30th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

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On ‎12‎/‎08‎/‎2020 at 11:33, DAVID SNOW said:

A finish somewhere in the 17s is my estimate, ATM.

Rather pleased with this which I posted on the 12th.

Corrections will be interesting.

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6 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

another fail for me - was looking good a week and a half ago.

I'll let you off in the summer months but just dont fail this winter feb...:cold: ;) 

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9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

17.8c to the 30th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

Likely I went too high after all.  Didn't think that a few weeks ago!

Edited by Don
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CET posted as 17.6 ... no adjustment (17.61 to 17.57). The very warm days were boosted up and the colder days at the end boosted down, cancelling out. 

Records set on 11th (24.0) and 12th (25.1), the latter now an all-time August record and just 0.1 below tied July values from 1948 and 2019. 

EWP preliminary figure appears to be 124 mm. Adjusted value for that will appear on 5th (124 to 30th but nothing showing on 24h precip map for 31st). 

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So no adjustments then, I'm not really all that surprised, that 17.6c is spot on according to my calculations as the final figure so I must be doing something right.

My 17.3c entry is the closest I've got in a while so I'm pretty happy with that considering where we were last week in the 18's.🙂

Edited by snowray
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