August 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

No change sunny Sheffield temp wise still at 18.3C +1.9C above normal. Rainfall now up to 89.1mm 134.8% of the monthly average.

Looks like the 100mm mark will passed for the 2nd time this year. Perhaps in 20 years time I'll be working at 150mm mark as something special.

Last year the mark was passed six times this year so far only twice.

Edited August 25, 2020 by The PIT

[Earthshine]

Cowbridge at 18.6°C.  Mean maximum and minimum temperature at 22.5°C and 15.3°C respectively.  Mean dewpoint at 16.0°C.

92.5mm of rainfall (16 rainy days)

[Summer Sun]

18.7c to the 24th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

[Don]

7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

18.7c to the 24th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

Only needs to drop by a degree and I will be happy....

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Only needs to drop by a degree and I will be happy....

Could be quite a notable drop over the rest of the week, temperatures by day and more notably by night will be below average for many, especially by Friday and through the weekend. I say a 50/50 chance will end up just into the high 17s all dependent on whether there are any significant makrked downward corrections, we have 7 days more readings, a drop of 0.1 day on day takes us to 18.0 degrees, without any corrections. 

[mb018538]

40 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Could be quite a notable drop over the rest of the week, temperatures by day and more notably by night will be below average for many, especially by Friday and through the weekend. I say a 50/50 chance will end up just into the high 17s all dependent on whether there are any significant makrked downward corrections, we have 7 days more readings, a drop of 0.1 day on day takes us to 18.0 degrees, without any corrections. 

It’ll be weird if it ends up at 18c - that would usually indicate a very good summer month.....but it’s been inflated massively by that record breaking heatwave. The rest of the month has been poor.

[Earthshine]

26 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’ll be weird if it ends up at 18c - that would usually indicate a very good summer month.....but it’s been inflated massively by that record breaking heatwave. The rest of the month has been poor.

Yeah, apart from that hot spell, the CET of August 2020 will just be of statistical interest rather than indicative of a classic summer month.  The minimum CET, however, is one to watch (the record is 14.0C, achieved in July 1983 and August 1997).  I think we are easily in for the second warmest minimum CET August on record, however (potentially beating 13.4C in August 2004).

[Don]

2 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Yeah, apart from that hot spell, the CET of August 2020 will just be of statistical interest rather than indicative of a classic summer month.  The minimum CET, however, is one to watch (the record is 14.0C, achieved in July 1983 and August 1997).  I think we are easily in for the second warmest minimum CET August on record, however (potentially beating 13.4C in August 2004).

Yes, nights have been very warm.

[Weather-history]

Wettest August since 2015 for England and Wales currently.

[Roger J Smith]

Through 24th, EWP at 89 mm. Map of 24h precip on 25th appears to have roughly 10-12 mm average (a lot heavier across north), so we are likely past 100 mm now.

My earlier estimate of 122 mm for scoring may be a bit high as the rainfall later this week is looking more like 5-10 mm, however, some more comes in on Monday so maybe into the 110s at least. 

[Summer Sun]

18.6c to the 25th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

[JeffC]

On ‎21‎/‎07‎/‎2020 at 21:50, JeffC said:

15.7 deg C and 85 mm please

looks like I have undershot rather this month on both scores!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 18.1C +1.7C above normal. Rainfall 103.4mm 156.4% of the monthly average.

[Scorcher]

18 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Could be quite a notable drop over the rest of the week, temperatures by day and more notably by night will be below average for many, especially by Friday and through the weekend. I say a 50/50 chance will end up just into the high 17s all dependent on whether there are any significant makrked downward corrections, we have 7 days more readings, a drop of 0.1 day on day takes us to 18.0 degrees, without any corrections. 

Not sure it's going to drop 0.1C every day though- it was again quite a warm night last night, although it didn't feel it. I reckon the average for today will be close to 18C. As we get into the last week it's harder for single days to make an impact on the figure- although it does look like we will get some genuinely cool days from Friday on which could dent it.

[mb018538]

6 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Not sure it's going to drop 0.1C every day though- it was again quite a warm night last night, although it didn't feel it. I reckon the average for today will be close to 18C. As we get into the last week it's harder for single days to make an impact on the figure- although it does look like we will get some genuinely cool days from Friday on which could dent it.

Friday to Monday has a combination of cool days and cold nights though - could see 12-14c cet days incoming which will drop the monthly right down. I’d expect a finish below 18c now.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 18.1C +1.7C above average. Rainfall still 103.4mm 156.4% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

18.5c to the 26th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

[Roger J Smith]

EWP close to 100 mm now, 96 after 25th, yesterday and first half of today (before 12z GFS projections started) would probably total 4-6 mm, then another 15-20 indicated, still on track to reach 115-120 mm end of month. 

[summer blizzard]

Two interesting questions for Roger.

1) Where did we rank to the 20th Vs 2003/2004.

2) With a large drop in the final third, will the final third be cooler than 2018 which I believe had the coolest final third for a few decades.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 17.9C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall 117.5mm 177.8% of the monthly average.

Well summer 2020 is going to 6th to 8th wettest on record for us. How afar up depends on todays rainfall.

 

Edited August 28, 2020 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

18.4c to the 27th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

[The PIT]

Looking at the latest local forecasts and predicted temps we could be as far down as 17.1C by the 31st. These tend to be two low so 17.3 to 17.5 is the likely landing zone.

[Roger J Smith]

19 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Two interesting questions for Roger.

1) Where did we rank to the 20th Vs 2003/2004.

2) With a large drop in the final third, will the final third be cooler than 2018 which I believe had the coolest final third for a few decades.

(1) This year provisionally at 19.0 through 20th, that may reduce to 18.8 or 18.9 in final numbers, 2003 was 19.3 and 2004 18.9.

(1995 was 20.2, 1997 was 19.9, 1975 was 19.8, 1911 was 19.2, so that 2020 if  18.9 ranked t6th or if 19.0 ranked 6th warmest on the 20th), 

(2) 2018 fell from 17.7 on 20th (and 17.8 21-22) to final value of 16.6, average for 21-31 was 14.7. The same value in 2020 would drop an adjusted 18.8 to 17.4. 

A similar event was 1800 which sat at 18.6 on 20th and finished 16.8. 1893 was 18.7 and finished 17.4. 

In recent years (since 1975) the only other August to fall from above 18 by more than 1.0 was 2004 (18.9 to 17.6), 2003 fell by 1.0 to 18.3.

 

Edited August 28, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 17.7C +1.3C degrees above normal. Rainfall at 136.7mm 206.8% of the monthly average.

2nd wettest August on record  here although nowhere near the 195.9mm we got in 2004.

6th wettest summer as well.

Edited August 29, 2020 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

18.2c to the 28th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th