August 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Earthshine]

53 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Probably need to average 16C for the rest of the month to get below 18C now, and 13C to get below 17C. 

So, likely outcome is somewhere in the mid-high 17Cs, or just maybe low 18Cs as a really long shot.

I think we are in for a good chance of 18C+.  Nothing notably cold on the horizon, generally just returning to around average.

[Badgers01]

this month shows how amazing August 95 was for countrywide heat and securing the record breaking CET it was also really settled and dry - although we have had some heat this month its been very unsettled also. Personally the hunt for a settled warm August goes on ! 

[Roger J Smith]

I worked out these ongoing daily values to fill in the gap, shows that the peak was indeed 19.5 after 13 days sustained on 14th ...

13 _ 19.5 (19.47)

14 _ 19.5 (19.48)

15 _ 19.4 (19.44)

16 _ 19.3 (19.30)

17 _ 19.2 (19.18)

18 _ 19.2 (19.18)

19 _ 19.1 (19.08)

[Don]

4 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

this month shows how amazing August 95 was for countrywide heat and securing the record breaking CET it was also really settled and dry - although we have had some heat this month its been very unsettled also. Personally the hunt for a settled warm August goes on ! 

I would be fine with another August 1995 with heat evenly distributed throughout the month, a bit like June and July 2018.  I would much prefer that to a week of intense furnace heat like we had recently!!

[Badgers01]

36 minutes ago, Don said:

I would be fine with another August 1995 with heat evenly distributed throughout the month, a bit like June and July 2018.  I would much prefer that to a week of intense furnace heat like we had recently!!

I would agree its really unsettled at the moment ..

[Scorcher]

8 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Probably need to average 16C for the rest of the month to get below 18C now, and 13C to get below 17C. 

So, likely outcome is somewhere in the mid-high 17Cs, or just maybe low 18Cs as a really long shot.

I think there is a good chance of 18C+ now. Corrections may take it slightly below but I'd be surprised if it ends up much below 18C.

I've also been noting how warm Stonyhurst has been over the past couple of weeks- there has been a lot of humid air in that part of the country and I find when Stonyhurst is warm that the correction tends to be small- may be wrong but we will see. It is the coolest station after all.

It will probably hold steady today as it's been another quite warm day after a warm night.

[Summer Sun]

19.0c to the 20th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 18.5C +2.0C above normal. Rainfall 70mm 105.9% of the monthly average.

[damianslaw]

21 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I think there is a good chance of 18C+ now. Corrections may take it slightly below but I'd be surprised if it ends up much below 18C.

I've also been noting how warm Stonyhurst has been over the past couple of weeks- there has been a lot of humid air in that part of the country and I find when Stonyhurst is warm that the correction tends to be small- may be wrong but we will see. It is the coolest station after all.

It will probably hold steady today as it's been another quite warm day after a warm night.

Yes the CET is holding firm at the moment countrywide largely due to the mild minima - August is not renowned for cool nights mind, SST values are approaching there warmest values, so an airstream from between NW and South will result in pretty mild nights. Maxima at the moment are only just around average though, diurnal range is very small. Maxes of 20 degrees and mins 15 degrees return 17.5 value.

A cooling trend over the coming day but again minima don't look like dropping that much with alot of wind around. Sunday night could be quite chilly. Later next week if we do see a pronounced ridge development we might see something more notably cooler at night at least to start with, but then cancelled out by warming as the ridge cuts off the cooler uppers. A finish in the low 18s looks a good  bet, outside chance of high 17s. The CET for 2003 did quite a similiar thing with a very hot start, cooling second half but not significantly so.

Despite the exceptional heat earlier this month, given the outlook, the month as a whole won't go down as a particularly good summer month overall, likely to end up a very wet one, and not especially sunny. A hot week doesn't make a good summer month overall.

[summer blizzard]

Gavin in the other realm estimates 17.89C before corrections. We do get sub 5C uppers for the final three days.

[Roger J Smith]

Assuming 19.0 is really 18.8, what's needed from 21st to 31st ...

18.0 requires 11d mean of 16.6

17.5 requires 11d mean of 15.1

17.0 requires 11d mean of 13.7

Most likely outcome then is probably 17.6 to 17.8 (after corrections)

As noted in the post on 2nd of CET values, the last daily minimum record was in August 1931. Values of 8-10 are required by late this month, an outside chance of that I suppose, but 12 seems to be the lowest modern Augusts can achieve. 

That record was 11.0 on 9 Aug 1931. Since then, the coldest values have been

10.6 on 23 Aug 1931 and 10.2 on 24 Aug 1931 (neither set a record)

10.8 on 31 Aug 1934

10.6 on 28 Aug 1935

11.0 on 30 Aug 1956 and 10.6 on 31 Aug 1956

11.3 on 23 Aug 1979

11.0 on 21 Aug 1986 and 11.2 on 31 Aug 1986 -- average only 12.2 for 21st-31st. 

11.5 on 31 Aug 1992

11.2 on 23 Aug 1993

11.9 on 31 Aug 2003

11.9 on 30 Aug 2010

11.7 on 20 Aug 2014, 11.6 on 21 Aug, 12.2 on 23 Aug and 11.8 on 24 Aug. Seven day mean 12.3 (19-25)

----------------

The earliest sub-10 CET means we have seen in recent decades occurred in 1986 (9-11 Sep all sub 10). The mean was only 9.6 on 1 Sep 1956. The last sub-10 August days were 30, 31 Aug 1890. The cold August of 1912 had a couple of days at 10.5 earlier in the month but no sub-10 values.  

 

 

Edited August 22, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

19.0c to the 21st

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 18C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall 71.5mm 108.2% above average

[The PIT]

Missed a dec place off yesterday. Sunny Sheffield 18.4C +2.0C above normal. Rainfall 73.1mm 110.6% of the average.

Estimate landing zone for us 17.1C to 17.5C at the moment

 

Edited August 23, 2020 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

18.9c to the 22nd

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

[Roger J Smith]

EWP has passed 70 mm with 66 reported to 21st, 4-5 yesterday (my estimate, 10-15 mm over half the grid), and GFS 204h to end of month indicating a wet finish of at least 50 mm, possibly 60-70. Much of this comes from low pressure systems Tuesday and Thursday-Friday, some uncertainty must be factored in but if we do pass 120 mm these would be the high scoring finishers (Thundershine may have lowest error but with 3d late penalty drops behind some other forecasts). Once again the scoring is more or less order of forecasts from top to bottom except for LG's 200 mm which really isn't totally out of the running but I will assume it may end up middle of the pack. 

Scoring from 122 mm ... 

Rank __ Forecaster ________ Fcst __ Error ____ Points ___ (notes on deductions)

_ 01 ___ B87 _____________ 125.0 _ +3.0 _____ 10.00 ____

_ 02 ___ NeilN ____________ 111.0 _-11.0 ______ 9.66 _____ third scoring interval see below

_ 03 ___ Summer Blizzard ___110.0 _-12.0 ______ 9.49 _____ fourth scoring interval see below

_ 04 ___ I Remember Atl252 _105.0 _-17.0 ______ 9.32 _____ fifth scoring interval see below

_ 05 ___ shillitocettwo ______ 105.0 _-17.0 ______ 9.24 _____ 0.08 deduction for 2nd entry

_ 06 ___ Thundershine _____ 129.0 _ +7.0 ______ 9.23 _____ loses 0.6 for 3d late penalty from 2nd score 9.83

_ 07 ___ syed2878 ________ 105.0 _-17.0 ______ 9.16 _____ 0.16 deduction for 2nd entry

_ 08 ___ brmbrmcar _______ 104.0 _-18.0 ______ 8.81 _____ scoring intervals resume

_ 09 ___ DR(S)NO ________ 100.0 _-22.0 ______ 8.64 _____

_ 10 ___ stewfox __________ 100.0 _-22.0 ______8.56 _____ 0.08 deduction for 2nd entry

_ 11 ___ relativistic ________ 100.0 _-22.0 ______ 8.48 _____ 0.16 deduction for 3rd entry

_ 12 ___ Emmett Garland ____93.0 _-29.0 ______ 8.14 _____ scoring intervals resume

_ 13 ___ Weather26 ________ 86.2 _-35.8 ______ 7.80 _____ 14th scoring interval see below

_ 14 ___ Blast From The Past_ 87.0_-35.0 ______ 7.77 _____ 0.2 deduction for 1d late

_ 15 ___ JeffC _____________85.0 _-37.0 ______ 7.60 _____

_ 16 ___ ProlongedSnowLover 85.0 _-37.0 ______ 7.52 _____ 0.08 deduction for 2nd entry

_ 17 ___ J10 ______________ 85.0 _-37.0 ______ 7.44 _____ 0.16 deduction for 3rd entry

_ 18 ___ Roger J Smith ______80.3 _-41.7 ______ 7.09 _____ scoring intervals resume

_ 19 ___ Summer Shower ____80.0 _-42.0 ______ 6.92 _____

_ 20 ___ Born From The Void _ 80.0 _-42.0 ______ 6.84 _____ 0.08 deduction for 2nd entry

__________________________________________________________-

to estimate your potential score next scoring interval is 6.58 (21st) and each forecast between that and yours will drop you 0.17,

with two upward adjustments of 0.01 required after 30th and 50th to reach 0.17 and 0.00 for last two scoring intervals.

If your entry was a duplicate, calculate the best score in your group and reduce by 0.08 for each position to your own.

If your entry was late, calculate as above but reduce that value by 0.2 per late day. 

___________________________________________________________

Note all scores below 100 mm are very likely to be locked in, scores for forecasts 100-129 could change if the final value is below 118 mm, 

LG would finish 54th at 122 mm, but can move up considerably with additional rain past that level, for example, ties 18th at 140 mm.

 

 

Edited August 23, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

18.9c to the 22nd

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

Based on today's model output, rest of the month looking pretty cool, so expecting the CET to take a more concerted climb down over remaining days. Perhaps a tall order to expect a full 1 degree drop, but a finish in the low 18s looking highly probable, with maxim supprseed though minima will hold up until the end of the week when we may see some significantly colder than average nights. Outside chance may finish in the high 17s. So despite the exceptional heat earlier in the month, August 2020 likely to go down as a very warm one, but not in the most warm category.

Edited August 23, 2020 by damianslaw

[North-Easterly Blast]

22 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Based on today's model output, rest of the month looking pretty cool, so expecting the CET to take a more concerted climb down over remaining days. Perhaps a tall order to expect a full 1 degree drop, but a finish in the low 18s looking highly probable, with maxim supprseed though minima will hold up until the end of the week when we may see some significantly colder than average nights. Outside chance may finish in the high 17s. So despite the exceptional heat earlier in the month, August 2020 likely to go down as a very warm one, but not in the most warm category.

Some cooler nights are now looking likely over the bank holiday weekend, and days are not looking that warm for the rest of the month, so I think that it is likely that the CET by the end of the month could come in below 18*C after adjustments.  It is at least looking likely that we will see the warmest August since at least 2004 and more likely the warmest since 2003 (which was the fifth warmest on record I believe), so August 2020 looks like the first very warm August since 2003 or 2004, although it is also looking likely that Aug 2020 will end up on the wet side as well as being well above average for the CET.

[damianslaw]

47 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Some cooler nights are now looking likely over the bank holiday weekend, and days are not looking that warm for the rest of the month, so I think that it is likely that the CET by the end of the month could come in below 18*C after adjustments.  It is at least looking likely that we will see the warmest August since at least 2004 and more likely the warmest since 2003 (which was the fifth warmest on record I believe), so August 2020 looks like the first very warm August since 2003 or 2004, although it is also looking likely that Aug 2020 will end up on the wet side as well as being well above average for the CET.

Interesting to note that some were saying either an Aug 95 or Aug 97 could be on the cards. Both were very warm Augusts but quite different, Aug 95 exceptionally dry, Aug 97 very wet. Looks like Aug 2020 will be closer in character to Aug 97 though not as warm, and nowhere near as warm as Aug 95.

I remember Aug 95 was followed by a very wet cyclonic and cool September, whereas Aug 97 was followed by a very good September with a fair bit of dry sunny often warm weather especially latter stages. Overall so far 2020 has shared hallmarks of 1995 much more so than 1997, although the latter produced a very dry second half to March and April much like this year.

[Earthshine]

CET at 18.8C.  I think the chance of getting an 18C+ CET this month is dropping away but still quite a significantly warmer than average month regardless (still a chance to get the warmest CET minima).

[Summer Sun]

18.8c to the 23rd

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 18.3C 1.9C above average. Rainfall up 74.2mm 112.3% of the monthly average.

[North-Easterly Blast]

22 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Interesting to note that some were saying either an Aug 95 or Aug 97 could be on the cards. Both were very warm Augusts but quite different, Aug 95 exceptionally dry, Aug 97 very wet. Looks like Aug 2020 will be closer in character to Aug 97 though not as warm, and nowhere near as warm as Aug 95.

I remember Aug 95 was followed by a very wet cyclonic and cool September, whereas Aug 97 was followed by a very good September with a fair bit of dry sunny often warm weather especially latter stages. Overall so far 2020 has shared hallmarks of 1995 much more so than 1997, although the latter produced a very dry second half to March and April much like this year.

Augusts 1995 and 1997 were the all time warmest and second warmest on record respectively.  August 2003 also saw a very warm month which was the joint fifth warmest on record.  I think that it is most likely that the chance of an 18 putting August will be swept away by a cool final three or four days to this month.

Edited August 24, 2020 by North-Easterly Blast

[DogToffee]

On 23/08/2020 at 21:34, damianslaw said:

Interesting to note that some were saying either an Aug 95 or Aug 97 could be on the cards. Both were very warm Augusts but quite different, Aug 95 exceptionally dry, Aug 97 very wet. Looks like Aug 2020 will be closer in character to Aug 97 though not as warm, and nowhere near as warm as Aug 95.

I remember Aug 95 was followed by a very wet cyclonic and cool September, whereas Aug 97 was followed by a very good September with a fair bit of dry sunny often warm weather especially latter stages. Overall so far 2020 has shared hallmarks of 1995 much more so than 1997, although the latter produced a very dry second half to March and April much like this year.

I'd be very happy with a 1995 analogy - there was a hell of a freeze at the end of December that year.

[Daniel*]

I’m anticipating a bit of a drop to end month looking much cooler by night too. Leeds & London forecast max/min over next 10 days from ECM 12z.