August 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[summer blizzard]

4 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Models John?

ECM.  GFS toying the same way.  Quite deep for August, not unique but potential there for some ‘awful summer weather’ ?

 

BFTP

Would have to track back but that may be enhanced by the energy of TS Josephine.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Interestingly, the provisional mean for August 12th is 24.2C. This is only the 4th August CET day on record to be 24C or more, and a record for the date by 1.6C. It also pushes out the latest date that a day with an average of 24C or more has been record out by 9 days. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 19C +2.5 above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Slow drop now for the next five days here.However warm nights preventing a quick drop.

[Summer Sun]

19.5c to the 13th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

[summer blizzard]

CET should probably peak here however minima may hold up the decline. Gavin in the other realm estimates 18.3C to the 28th so high 17's post correction perhaps likely.

 

Rather fits 2004 actually which we've been tracking close to since May in CET terms.

[Don]

10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

CET should probably peak here however minima may hold up the decline. Gavin in the other realm estimates 18.3C to the 28th so high 17's post correction perhaps likely.

 

Rather fits 2004 actually which we've been tracking close to since May in CET terms.

My 17.7C could be in with a shout after all then....

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 19C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall still at 9.8mm 14.8% of the monthly average.

Edited August 15, 2020 by The PIT

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 19C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall 17.2mm 26% of the monthly average.

Most of the rain has fallen in two days 16.3mm worth. Temperatures aren't dropping as the high and lows are coming in at the present average just about.

[Summer Sun]

Hadley still not updating.

The last update was on Thursday.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 18.6C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall 51.3mm 77.6% of the monthly average

[Roger J Smith]

Despite the lack of updates I think it's safe to assume the CET has stalled out in the low 19s since that last update. Probably a top ten first half, we can compare that better with the final numbers anyway. 

Will update EWP tomorrow as the heavy Sunday rainfalls will then be in the tracker total (although more to be added today). If anything the recent model trend has been down from earlier as the focus of heaviest rain switches to west/central Ireland now (exceptionally heavy rains coming there later this week apparently). 

[summer blizzard]

Assuming the Netweather CET is dropping at the same rate then accounting for the different starting point I think we are at 19.1C. The 22nd onwards is when it looks like we'll start hammering away so somewhere in the high 17's most likely post adjustment.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield unchanged at 18.6C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall 51.6mm 78.1% of the monthly average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 18.6C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall now at 55.8mm 84.4% of the monthly average.

[Earthshine]

Cowbridge at 18.9°C.  Mean maximum and minimum temperature at 23.0°C and 15.3°C respectively.  Mean dewpoint at 16.2°C.

[cheeky_monkey]

sunny Edmonton is at 16.3c which is still 0.6c below normal..had some lovely hot sunny days in the last week and at the start of the month..bit surprised still below normal..this is due to some very cold nights about a week ago which broke some cold records...looks unlikely to get above normal as we are in a cooling trend here from today onwards..esp as the nights get longer

[summer blizzard]

Just tracking the drop in the Netweather CET in the past 2 days and we are probably now at 18.9/19.0 for Hadley. 

Edited August 19, 2020 by summer blizzard

[Scorcher]

18 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Just tracking the drop in the Netweather CET in the past 2 days and we are probably now at 18.9/19.0 for Hadley. 

Hadley has now updated on the Met Office site and is at 19.2C to the 18th. I've been saying all along that the CET is not going to take as big a hit as many are expecting- with the warm humid air around, night time temps are holding up which is stopping it dropping too much.

That could change a little bit from Sunday onwards as we introduce some slightly cooler air- but it's not really looking that cool even then.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Hadley has now updated on the Met Office site and is at 19.2C to the 18th. I've been saying all along that the CET is not going to take as big a hit as many are expecting- with the warm humid air around, night time temps are holding up which is stopping it dropping too much.

That could change a little bit from Sunday onwards as we introduce some slightly cooler air- but it's not really looking that cool even then.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Could be looking at the first 18C+ CET month since July 2018.

[SummerShower]

7 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Could be looking at the first 18C+ CET month since July 2018.

It wont happen with maximum temperature, but could we have a record breaking minimum this month.  Would have to be higher than 14.0 (aug 97 and July 83 had that figure).  Not guaranteed, but in with a shout?  Currently at 14.7 to 18th.

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, SummerShower said:

It wont happen with maximum temperature, but could we have a record breaking minimum this month.  Would have to be higher than 14.0 (aug 97 and July 83 had that figure).  Not guaranteed, but in with a shout?  Currently at 14.7 to 18th.

Could end up being a warm wet August a bit like 1997. Max temps rest of the month though look very near average, as you say night minima is what will hold the CET up, though northern parts will see incursions of polar air from Sunday onwards.

[Roger J Smith]

The CET has updated today, now at 19.2 C (to 18th). The four missing days were all in the range 17.9 to 18.4 so I imagine the daily values that we missed were basically nearly 0.1 lower each day after that 19.5 peak. 

EWP had reached 44 mm (17th) and probably added 6 mm on 18th to reach 50 mm. Next ten days promise about 30-40 more, could easily reach 100 mm at month's end at this rate. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 18.6C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall 69.6mm 105.3% of the monthly average.

It may start dropping here from the weekend but not by much.

[Summer Sun]

19.1c to the 19th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

19.1c to the 19th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th

Data was unavailable between the 14th and 17th

Probably need to average 16C for the rest of the month to get below 18C now, and 13C to get below 17C. 

So, likely outcome is somewhere in the mid-high 17Cs, or just maybe low 18Cs as a really long shot.