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August 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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August CET averages and extremes
 

(the table includes all years 1981 to 2019, colour codes show warmest, middle and coolest thirds, and

all of these values are mean daily CET values, the average of daily max and min)

 

24.9 ... warmest August day (1st, 1995)

19.2 ... warmest August, 1995

18.9 ... second warmest August, 1997

18.7 ... third warmest August, 1975

18.6 ... fourth warmest August, 1947

18.3 ... fifth warmest Augusts (tied 1747 and 2003)

18.2 ... seventh warmest August, 1911

18.1 ... eighth warmest August, 1955

18.0 ... ninth warmest August, 1990

17.8 ... tied 10th warmest 1736, 1899

17.6 ... tied 12th warmest (with 1976 and earlier years) 1984, 2004 

17.3 ... 1983

17.1 ... 1991, 2019 

17.0 ... 2002, 2016 

16.9 ... 2013 

16.8 ... 2001 

16.6 ... 1989, 2000, 2009, 2012, 2018 

16.5 ... average of 1990 to 2019 and also 1991 to 2019 (emerging 1991 to 2020), 1996 

16.4 ... average of 1981-2010 and 1986-2015 and 2001-2019

16.2 ... average of 1971-2000, 1981, 2005, 2008 

16.1 ... 1999, 2006 

16.0 ... 1994 

15.9 ... 1998, 2015 

15.8 ... average of 1961-1990, and 1701-1800, and 1901-2000

15.7 ... 1982

15.6 ... average of 1659-2019 (15.645), and 1987, 2017

15.4 ... average of 1801-1900, and 2007, 2011 

15.3 ... 1992, 2010

15.2 ... 1988

15.1 ... average of 1659-1700

14.9 ... 2014

14.6 ... 1985, 1993 

13.7 ... coldest August since 1956 (1986) -- tied 16th coldest

13.6 ... tied 10th coldest (six years ... 1817, 1848, 1860, 1885, 1920, 1922)

13.5 ... coldest August since 1912 (1956) -- tied 5th coldest with 1674, 1683, 1844, 1845

13.3 ... fourth coldest August (1725)
13.0 ... second coldest Augusts (tie) (1694,1695)
12.9 ... coldest August, 1912

 9.5 ... coldest day to 16th (16th, 1888) ... earliest sub-10 value in August

 8.8 ... coldest August day (26th, 1864) ... although it was 7.1 C on 1 Sept of 1816

_________________________________________________________

Enter your CET forecasts by end of the day Friday, 31st July, or with increasing late penalties, up to end of Monday, 3rd of August.

=======================================================================================

 

EWP forecasts 

192.9 mm __ wettest August 1766 to 2019 (1912) -- (192.1 mm in 1799 a close second)

156.5 mm __ wettest August 1981 to 2019 (2004) 

 82.9 mm ___ average for all years 1766 to 2019

 79.7 mm ___ average for 1990-2019

 75.6 mm ___ average for 1981-2010

 14.4 mm ___ second driest August (1947)

 _ 9.1 mm ___ driest August 1766 to 2019 (1995) 

_____________________________________________________________________

Recent years: 2019 _ 86.8 mm ... ... 2018 _ 76.7 mm ... ... 2017 _ 83.8 mm ... ... 2016 _ 67.5 mm ... ... 2015 _ 109.1 mm ... ... 2014 _ 118.9 mm ____

... ... ... 2013 _ 66.1 mm ... ... 2012 _ 94.2 mm ... ... 2011 _ 91.4 mm ... ... 2010 _ 107.2 mm ... ... 2009 _ 60.5 mm ... ... 2008 _ 116.5 mm

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hadley EWP is used for contest scoring. Deadlines are the same as for CET contest. Add your EWP forecast to your CET forecast for one combined entry. You can enter either contest without making a forecast in the other category.

Good luck !! 

 

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19.3c to the 12th 3.3c above the 61 to 90 average 2.4c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 19.3c to the 12th Current low this month 15.6c

18.1c to the 9th 2.2c above the 61 to 90 average 1.2c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 18.1c to the 9th Current low this month 15.6c to

Table of forecasts for August 2020 The numbers in brackets show your order of entry into the contest(s).    CET _ EWP _ Forecaster _________________________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster _____

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Rest in pieces summer 2020!  21.5C  :oldsad:  Last sub 13C August in 1912.  Last sub 14C August in 1986.  Last sub 15C and last sub 15.5C August in 2014.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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5 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

Rest in pieces summer 2020!  21.5C  :oldsad:  Last sub 13C August in 1912.  Last sub 14C August in 1986.  Last sub 15C and last sub 15.5C August in 2014.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

That would produce high humidity!

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Drab July thus far (cooler and drier than my expectation however.....)

 

 I expect August to be truly insipid, cool, giving 2014 a run for coolness. It will fail to hit 20.C in all but SE most days with NW winds dominant, dull, damp and Atlantic in an unseasonable Polar Maritime way. 

 

So 14.6.C please and 105mm

 

  However..... I see a very slow Azores High migration and a September almost as sunny as Spring and warm with it (infact Sep 2020 will have a higher CET than any of the 3 summer months of this year).....

 

  Plenty of Summer weather in 2020, just not in *actual Summer *

Edited by Shillitocettwo
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8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

What I think too, Sept does tend to have a break from the Atlantic dominance of July and Aug

Not really helpful in the August CET thread though is it.

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