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Autumn 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Pretty grotty here as expected. Steady light rain, 11.7 °C. At least the winds are light, so it doesn't feel too cold. It's not that gloomy either, considering. If we're lucky and get the odd glimmer of sun in the afternoon it might not feel too bad. Certainly nothing like the warmth we've had, though.

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I'd hate to be a thermostat, in a house shared by @markyo and @Azazel!

Today I spent a lot of time studying IOD. I was working out the relationship between IOD, ENSO and MJO.  There is a connnection between IOD and ENSO, mostly during strong events. During weak La Nina I

I take it from reading some of the comments on here that I’m not allowed to look forward to, or comment about the signs of autumn in the autumn thread??  I could understand if the post I made this

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Had some heavier bursts in that rain band but clearing up now with some sunshine. Certainly more September-like now than the last 10 days.

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Perfect Septembers day at my location imo. Cool and dry,sunny spells ,light wind.  Max 14c

Edited by sundog
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1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Deep Fi but early October looks potentially  more settled, especially further south, with high teens still possible...

 

AC87D084-16DB-4C14-ACF3-3BB655629B97.png

That looks awful, not what we need at all. Fingers crossed this Autumn pans out as a Autumn for once, that crap is just vile.

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19 minutes ago, markyo said:

That looks awful, not what we need at all. Fingers crossed this Autumn pans out as a Autumn for once, that crap is just vile.

What’s crap and vile about it? What do we ‘need’ in early October? Feet of snow? Driving rain?  Personally I’d like a return of settled conditions, winter can arrive in winter!

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20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

What’s crap and vile about it? What do we ‘need’ in early October? Feet of snow? Driving rain?  Personally I’d like a return of settled conditions, winter can arrive in winter!

Its Autumn!! Seasonal weather is what is needed for a change! Feet of snow? Driving rain? Sorry where was that mentioned? 

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26 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

What’s crap and vile about it? What do we ‘need’ in early October? Feet of snow? Driving rain?  Personally I’d like a return of settled conditions, winter can arrive in winter!

Aye, settled and the warmer the better for me in Oct

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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, settled and the warmer the better for me in Oct

Settled and warm early in the month but then turning stormy later on, a bit like the last weeks of 2000, would be an ideal october

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16 minutes ago, markyo said:

Its Autumn!! Seasonal weather is what is needed for a change! Feet of snow? Driving rain? Sorry where was that mentioned? 

Personally I like warm and sunny or snowy and cold.  What’s there to like about ‘Autumnal’ weather? Presumably that’s 12-14c and unsettled? How anyone enjoys that’s is beyond me? 

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36 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Personally I like warm and sunny or snowy and cold.  What’s there to like about ‘Autumnal’ weather? Presumably that’s 12-14c and unsettled? How anyone enjoys that’s is beyond me? 

Each to our own surely? I hate Summer, Autumn brings such a relief,  by far my favourite season hence my Autumnal weather preference!

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1 hour ago, markyo said:

That looks awful, not what we need at all. Fingers crossed this Autumn pans out as a Autumn for once, that crap is just vile.

Whilst I have enjoyed the summer, I am quite frankly getting bored of warm weather now and feel that it's now time for something more active and akin to autumn. I don't want unseasonably warm weather during October just like I don't want unseasonably cold weather during April. I do feel that it's time to say goodbye to warm weather now until next spring.

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1 hour ago, markyo said:

Its Autumn!! Seasonal weather is what is needed for a change! Feet of snow? Driving rain? Sorry where was that mentioned? 

We don’t need dull dreary wet and windy days. All that rubbish can wait until November.

I would be happy for some more milder weather.

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13 minutes ago, markyo said:

Each to our own surely? I hate Summer, Autumn brings such a relief,  by far my favourite season hence my Autumnal weather preference!

You make it sound like we have unbearably hot weather for long periods in this country, which isn’t the case lol. 

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54 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Personally I like warm and sunny or snowy and cold.  What’s there to like about ‘Autumnal’ weather? Presumably that’s 12-14c and unsettled? How anyone enjoys that’s is beyond me? 

I agree, that’s the worst kind of weather, and sometimes we tend to get stuck with it for weeks at a time.

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2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I agree, that’s the worst kind of weather, and sometimes we tend to get stuck with it for weeks at a time.

Autumn brings variety, but more often than not long periods of rather uniform temperatures in the 10-16 degree range. From mid October to mid November really need a cold northerly or anticyclonic conditions to bring more variable temps, anything from the atlantic tends to be associated with temps around 10,11, 12 degrees. Alas atlantic tends to dominate in this period. By late November a NW airstream can bring chilly weather, and chances of cold anticyclonic weather increases markedly. Easterly and NE airstreams can bring notably cold weather by then as well.

The worst cuplrit for uniform temps all year round is the long fetch SW airstream, this can bring low-mid teens widespread in depths of January and not much higher temps in summer, indeed sometimes cooler bizarrely.

Edited by damianslaw
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10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Autumn brings variety, but more often than not long periods of rather uniform temperatures in the 10-16 degree range. From mid October to mid November really need a cold northerly or anticyclonic conditions to bring more variable temps, anything from the atlantic tends to be associated with temps around 10,11, 12 degrees. Alas atlantic tends to dominate in this period. By late November a NW airstream can bring chilly weather, and chances of cold anticyclonic weather increases markedly. Easterly and NE airstreams can bring notably cold weather by then as well.

The worst cuplrit for uniform temps all year round is the long fetch SW airstream, this can bring low-mid teens widespread in depths of January and not much higher temps in summer, indeed sometimes cooler bizarrely.

Agreed, I'd say late September / early October has the narrowest percentile range in temperatures on average with daily highs rarely going above 18 or below 12. 

A similar analogy is when you warm up a pan of iced water, with the hob being the sun and water being the Northern hemisphere.

As you heat it up in Spring, some parts get hot but not all as you stir the water, explaining the swings we tend to get in April and May. 

After the solstice you begin to turn the heat down but the water continues to heat a bit more peaking in late July, by now all the cold patches are gone. 

At the Autumn equinox you're really turning the gas down, and this pot of water is cooling very uniformly helped by the stirring. Things cool much more evenly in comparison to being heated up but also more quickly as the heat source is way below sustaining the residual heat. This way this time of year sees less variation.

In November you start adding the ice again, with cold patches now swirling amongst the tepid water. By now the gas is very low but the rate of cooling slows.

After the winter solstice you edge up the gas again but the cooling will only stop and reverse in February, by which point you're turning the gas up higher and higher.

I realise that was a long exploration, but I trust it makes sense! 

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12 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Agreed, I'd say late September / early October has the narrowest percentile range in temperatures on average with daily highs rarely going above 18 or below 12. 

A similar analogy is when you warm up a pan of iced water, with the hob being the sun and water being the Northern hemisphere.

As you heat it up in Spring, some parts get hot but not all as you stir the water, explaining the swings we tend to get in April and May. 

After the solstice you begin to turn the heat down but the water continues to heat a bit more peaking in late July, by now all the cold patches are gone. 

At the Autumn equinox you're really turning the gas down, and this pot of water is cooling very uniformly helped by the stirring. Things cool much more evenly in comparison to being heated up but also more quickly as the heat source is way below sustaining the residual heat. This way this time of year sees less variation.

In November you start adding the ice again, with cold patches now swirling amongst the tepid water. By now the gas is very low but the rate of cooling slows.

After the winter solstice you edge up the gas again but the cooling will only stop and reverse in February, by which point you're turning the gas up higher and higher.

I realise that was a long exploration, but I trust it makes sense! 

A good analogy - next time i'm cooking pasta or boiling eggs i'll be thinking about spring as I stir the water! 

I just dislike the amount of windy days we tend to get in autumn and early winter. Last year was just relentless wind and rain!
I like it as winter ends and spring starts when things tend to calm down as the PV starts to weaken again.

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