Autumn 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Sunny76]

Just now, B87 said:

Can we have a hot September first though, just to offset the cool and extreme cloudiness of June-August?

Yeah, let’s have a warm September, with 25-29c for the first 2 weeks, then a cooler period of weather while still remaining sunny. The sunniest month since May please.

[B87]

8 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah, let’s have a warm September, with 25-29c for the first 2 weeks, then a cooler period of weather while still remaining sunny. The sunniest month since May please.

I was thinking a September like 2006. Average highs of 22-23c, sunnier and drier than average (but a couple of violent thunderstorms with the heat).

I think we will be lucky if we get an August like 2015 or 2017 (and they were both terrible). No hope for it at all.

Edited July 16, 2020 by B87

[Relativistic]

32 minutes ago, B87 said:

Can we have a hot September first though, just to offset the cool and extreme cloudiness of June-August?

I always find the use of the word "offset" a funny one. How about we have 30 years of well-below-average temperatures to offset the warm/very warm 30 years that preceded now?

[B87]

2 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

I always find the use of the word "offset" a funny one. How about we have 30 years of well-below-average temperatures to offset the warm/very warm 30 years that preceded now?

I use it because you get a lot of people on here using it to justify this summer weather as 'payback' for the spring. Then completely ignore the absolutely atrocious conditions from September-March.

Average August to me is 23c high and 14c low.

[MP-R]

Dare I say it, the very conditions I’m currently sat outside in would be fine in an otherwise poor setup. The sun is out, light breeze and it’s approaching 23C. The sun also feels strong.

Still, a more overhead high would be better!

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Relativistic said:

I always find the use of the word "offset" a funny one. How about we have 30 years of well-below-average temperatures to offset the warm/very warm 30 years that preceded now?

Hmm not sure about that lol. I certainly have no desire for a 1960s climate. In any case, there’s still been a number of poor since, even post 1987.

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, B87 said:

I use it because you get a lot of people on here using it to justify this summer weather as 'payback' for the spring. Then completely ignore the absolutely atrocious conditions from September-March.

Average August to me is 23c high and 14c low.

I agree about that. Far too many folk were moaning about the long sunny periods in April and May, which in my mind, made up for all the horrible dull damp and cool weather between October and March of 2019/20.

[B87]

11 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Hmm not sure about that lol. I certainly have no desire for a 1960s climate. In any case, there’s still been a number of poor since, even post 1987.

1900-1930s summer highs were comparable to those of the current day. The 1960s were probably the worst summers of the 20th century.

[Sunny76]

9 minutes ago, B87 said:

1900-1930s summer highs were comparable to those of the current day. The 1960s were probably the worst summers of the 20th century.

1975 and beyond seems to be a good marker for when summers started to improve or become much hotter. 1975, and 76 were both hot summers. 

[summer blizzard]

Just playing around with my Q3 analogue set and the signal is a bit mixed for Sep-Oct but average to cool in November. Early winter look is golden for Jan-March if things transpire as expected. Cheeky Monkey will also be glad to know there’s a good signal for brutal cold over western Canada and the central plains in Jan-Feb.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Early morning (05:30) mists in the back paddock. First of the season....

 

[Dangerous55019]

I popped to our Parish Church yard this morning, and noticed another tree just starting to gain its autumn plumage... Next I I go, I'll try and grab a photo. 

[Dangerous55019]

7 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Early morning (05:30) mists in the back paddock. First of the season....

 

I love seeing these gentle autumnal mists first thing in the morning. Thank you for posting these images @Turnedoutniceagain 

[markyo]

The slow transfer in to Autumn is my favourite time of the year. The first time in the morning you step out into actual cold is fantastic,it just feels so fresh and clean, fingers crossed we will get a actual Autumn season this year, been long over due...a frost in October on those dropped leaves when walking over them is magical....But knowing our climate it will be mild crap again!

[Sunny76]

51 minutes ago, markyo said:

The slow transfer in to Autumn is my favourite time of the year. The first time in the morning you step out into actual cold is fantastic,it just feels so fresh and clean, fingers crossed we will get a actual Autumn season this year, been long over due...a frost in October on those dropped leaves when walking over them is magical....But knowing our climate it will be mild crap again!

It was quite cold and fresh last autumn. We do need a clearer cold autumn and less rain, like the ones from 2016 or 2017, where we had dry cold Novembers. 

[jules216]

On 17/07/2020 at 02:02, summer blizzard said:

Just playing around with my Q3 analogue set and the signal is a bit mixed for Sep-Oct but average to cool in November. Early winter look is golden for Jan-March if things transpire as expected. Cheeky Monkey will also be glad to know there’s a good signal for brutal cold over western Canada and the central plains in Jan-Feb.

I have s feeling it will be a good start to winter this year also overall.My analogs that are verifying tremendously this summer are 1970,1977,1995,2005 and 2010.

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, jules216 said:

I have s feeling it will be a good start to winter this year also overall.My analogs that are verifying tremendously this summer are 1970,1977,1995,2005 and 2010.

1954, 1964, 1970, 2005, 2016 for me. 

2010 was a Q2 analogue when a heavy flip in ENSO seemed possible however its been binned for Q3. 

1995 was excluded as a poor PDO match. 

1977 was never included as a poor ENSO match. 

Edited July 18, 2020 by summer blizzard

[Dangerous55019]

On 17/07/2020 at 16:55, markyo said:

The slow transfer in to Autumn is my favourite time of the year. The first time in the morning you step out into actual cold is fantastic,it just feels so fresh and clean

Morning @markyo 

Seconded, thirded and fourthed mate. 

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone. 

I have to say that it does feel very autumnal outside this morning... The coolness, the dampness, and the quality of the light just screams autumn to me. 

Now I know that we’re still in July, and I know that summer has probably gotten one or two nasty tricks up it’s sleeve, but it really does feel like a corner has been turned, or is being turned, and we are now in (what I think is) that wonderful late summer period where we see autumn reaching out to us, with increasing strength each and every day. 

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Morning everyone. 

I have to say that it does feel very autumnal outside this morning... The coolness, the dampness, and the quality of the light just screams autumn to me. 

Now I know that we’re still in July, and I know that summer has probably gotten one or two nasty tricks up it’s sleeve, but it really does feel like a corner has been turned, or is being turned, and we are now in (what I think is) that wonderful late summer period where we see autumn reaching out to us, with increasing strength each and every day. 

Not yet. It still feels like high point of summer, regardless of how poor it’s been. Still light until nearly 9.30.

Once when hit mid August, there’s a more obvious transition from summer to autumn. 
 

That being said, there’s still time for another hot spell between now early September, which I’m still hoping for.

[jules216]

15 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

1954, 1964, 1970, 2005, 2016 for me. 

2010 was a Q2 analogue when a heavy flip in ENSO seemed possible however its been binned for Q3. 

1995 was excluded as a poor PDO match. 

1977 was never included as a poor ENSO match. 

To be honest I didn't use PDO as my main criteria. I have used a combination of ENSO,active hurricane season and cold Mays in Slovakia,tried to find kind of overall best combined years and got my list. Nonetheless their combined anomaly is turning out to be amazing match with half of the summer gone as you can see on the image I have attached in my original post, almost like r+0.8-0.9  correlation. I have plotted your and my combined 500mb following winter anomalies. How about that

[HafrenLMP1]

2 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

 

Now I know that we’re still in July, and I know that summer has probably gotten one or two nasty tricks up it’s sleeve, but it really does feel like a corner has been turned, or is being turned, and we are now in (what I think is) that wonderful late summer period where we see autumn reaching out to us, with increasing strength each and every day. 

As much as I like autumn, I'd prefer it's arrival to show early signs in the latter part of August; not just after the halfway point in July; especially after what has been a pretty poor summer. Saying that, many of my regular recent bike rides have felt very autumnal, as opposed to summer.

[stainesbloke]

It’s less than a month after the solstice, so still plenty of summer left. September can often be a warm and sunny month, too, which is my hope this year, as summer here has been rather underwhelming. 

Edited July 19, 2020 by stainesbloke

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

It’s less than a month after the solstice, so still plenty of summer left. September can often be a warm and sunny month, too, which is my hope this year, as summer here has been rather underwhelming. 

It’s just these people on here salivating at the prospect of autumn arriving.

Theres nothing to look forward to, as we will probably be moving into another mild boring winter. 

[matt111]

I don’t mind autumn as such, but I would like a summer first since we haven’t actually had one yet.