Autumn 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 hours ago, Stabilo19 said:

It's indeed a lovely start to Autumn, sunny with a chill to the air. 

November 2019 was relatively chilly for London but then pretty much the entire winter was average or above average. So perhaps we need to suffer through a wet and windy autumn to get some cold + snow this year.. 

I remember in November 2009 thinking 'oh here we go again, wet and mild crap for winter'....The rest is history 

A November stagnant troughing scenario is actually a positive indicator for UK winter cold.

Edited September 1, 2020 by CreweCold

[DAVID SNOW]

October/November is the time during Autumn when the term 'Indian summer' should be used, not September.

[markyo]

41 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

October/November is the time during Autumn when the term 'Indian summer' should be used, not September.

Sorry thats wrong,it can be used in all 3 months,check the definition.

[Freeze]

An Indian summer is actually a spell of calm, sunny, warmer than average conditions after the first air frosts, so September is included.

Edited September 1, 2020 by Freeze

[DAVID SNOW]

9 minutes ago, markyo said:

Sorry thats wrong,it can be used in all 3 months,check the definition.

Don't need to thanks.

[Freeze]

1st day of meteorological autumn was lovely, mostly sunny with light winds and reached 20.2c what’s not to like?

[summer blizzard]

Regarding seasonal models I don't take much notice personally. I have observed that they are usually quite poor except in picking out the more extreme months. Certainly, not all that good seasonally normally.

[Coopsy]

So technically we’re already having an Indian summer. Nice...long may it continue

[Sunny76]

11 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I remember in November 2009 thinking 'oh here we go again, wet and mild crap for winter'....The rest is history 

A November stagnant troughing scenario is actually a positive indicator for UK winter cold.

It doesn’t always work out like that. November 1994 and 97 were mild and the winters that followed remained so.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Anyone seen any credible LR Winter forecasts yet? By credible, I mean NOT anything from James Madden or the Daily Express.

[Weather-history]

11 hours ago, markyo said:

Sorry thats wrong,it can be used in all 3 months,check the definition.

But have you had an air frost? No air frost, no Indian summer. 

I bet most years the claim of an Indian summer weren't because they are still waiting for their first air frosts

 

 

Edited September 2, 2020 by Weather-history

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Anyone seen any credible LR Winter forecasts yet? By credible, I mean NOT anything from James Madden or the Daily Express.

I've saw one for the USA which indicates a much colder Winter for the NE USA, the opposite of what they had last year.

Does this mean we will get the opposite of last year too and hint a mean low pressure in the NE states with a Greeland High?

You can but dream.

[markyo]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

But have you had an air frost? No air frost, no Indian summer. 

I bet most years the claim of an Indian summmer weren't because they are still waiting for their first air frosts

 

 

I know, without a airfrost no Indian Summer, that is a proper definition. Can happen in any of the 3 months of Autumn not just the last 2.

[mushymanrob]

7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

But have you had an air frost? No air frost, no Indian summer. 

I bet most years the claim of an Indian summer weren't because they are still waiting for their first air frosts

 

 

sorry if i missed it, but where in the chart does summer 2020 come in your index? not sure where 182 fits

[Schnee]

12 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

October/November is the time during Autumn when the term 'Indian summer' should be used, not September.

I've always believed this is a main part of the definition to the term ''Indian Summer'' too. Just googling ''indian summer definition'' brings up tonnes of stuff saying late Autumn or October/November.

 

September for me is the Summer version of December to Autumn (or in recent Winters, Winter as a whole...) and March to Winter.

[Methuselah]

28 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

But have you had an air frost? No air frost, no Indian summer. 

I bet most years the claim of an Indian summer weren't because they are still waiting for their first air frosts

I haven't seen any Indians yet, either...

[James1979]

Googling this gives a lot of answers including late September need not be precluded but it generally applies to October and November (vague and therefore September still applies) and some claim you need to have an air frost (again vague) but there are no concrete definitions that I can find. I didn't realise this was actually a reference to Native American harvest planning, interesting  reading.

[Weather-history]

56 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

sorry if i missed it, but where in the chart does summer 2020 come in your index? not sure where 182 fits

 

Manchester Summer Indices: one of the poorest. Temperatures have kept it from being it even lower

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180
2020 182

[mountain shadow]

New month, new season, still pouring down.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 

Manchester Summer Indices: one of the poorest. Temperatures have kept it from being it even lower

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180
2020 182

wow, thats poor... just down the road here in Derby its not been that poor, we havnt had as much rain and we have had several days with temps into the 30's c..

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

5 hours ago, Coopsy said:

So technically we’re already having an Indian summer. Nice...long may it continue

Not really, as these current temperatures and weather conditions are pretty average for early September. And we haven't had an air frost yet.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

46 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

wow, thats poor... just down the road here in Derby its not been that poor, we havnt had as much rain and we have had several days with temps into the 30's c..

 

East always better than west, looks wet afternoon coming up here, Derby likely stay dry

[Josh Rubio]

24 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

East always better than west, looks wet afternoon coming up here, Derby likely stay dry

Wouldn’t bet on it!

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

East always better than west, looks wet afternoon coming up here, Derby likely stay dry

its peeing down, as expected..

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Good news for us Coldies: "The La Nina phase will continue all the way through winter 2020/2021"

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/fall-forecast-2020-enso-lanina-winter-influence-fa/