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2020 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Poll: No. 4


Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent Poll 2020   

13 members have voted

  1. 1. What will the 2020 NSIDC daily sea ice extent minimum be this year? Options are in millions of km2

    • > 7.0
      0
    • 6.75 - 7.0 (80s average)
      0
    • 6.5 to 6.75
      0
    • 6.25 to 6.5 (90s average)
      0
    • 6.0 to 6.25
      0
    • 5.75 to 6.0
      0
    • 5.5 to 5.75
      0
    • 5.25 to 5.5 (00s average)
      0
    • 5.0 to 5.25
      0
    • 4.75 to 5.0
      0
    • 4.5 to 4.75
      0
    • 4.25 to 4.5 (10s average)
      0
    • 4.0 to 4.25 (2007)
    • 3.75 to 4.0
    • 3.5 to 3.75
    • 3.25 to 3.5 (2012)
    • 3.0 to 3.25
    • 2.75 to 3.0
    • 2.5 to 2.75
    • 2.25 to 2.5
      0
    • 2.0 to 2.25
      0
    • 1.75 to 2.0
      0
    • 1.5 to 1.75
      0
    • 1.25 to 1.5
      0
    • 1.0 to 1.25
      0
    • <1.0
      0


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Latest poll to see how we think the Arctic sea ice melt season will go this year. Extent has generally been hovering around 2nd to 6th lowest during June, not a whole lot different to the last 3 months.

As before, the data will be based on the NSIDC extent measures. They provide excel spreadsheets here that contain all of their daily data. Below are the values for the last 10 minima, in millions of km2

2019:    4.1
2018:    4.6
2017:    4.6
2016:    4.1
2015:    4.4
2014:    5.0
2013:    5.0
2012:    3.3
2011:    4.3
2010:    4.6
 

From the April poll, the average of 22 votes was 4.1 million km2, with a 90% range from 2.5 to 5.7.
From the May poll, the average of 15 votes was 4.0 million km2, with a 90% range from 3.2 to 4.9.
From the June poll, the average of 14 votes was 3.7 million km2, with a 90% range from 3.3 to 4.2.

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