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Model output discussion - into July 2020

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GFS turns into a right mess - somehow manages to generate an upper trough over France, move it north and then park it over the U.K. for 3 days! Hilarious. . .

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JMA 12z should not be discounted, T264:

E6077D3B-5AF6-4154-949B-6C45D3EBC000.thumb.gif.05ea43c8998547f20a545146a4cde60d.gif

Lots of possibilities in the mix longer term, we will no doubt be watching them........

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Would be good to get an update on anomaly / NOAA charts / AAM etc. GFS / ECM both have HP retreating back to the Atlantic, which seems to go against what some of the above have been indicating.

 

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ECM clusters - T192 - most ensembles have stronger positive anomalies to the north than the op run - suggests we're probably better advised to look south for a breakdown than north - I still feel there's heat to be extracted from these charts even by this stage!

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020080412_192.

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Hope I'm not treading on any toes here...

6-10 day NOAA chart:
spacer.png

 

8-14 day NOAA chart:
spacer.png

 

Both excellent really, particularly when you consider how the summer has been for many on here. Suggest ongoing potential for warm, settled weather at least.

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Would be good to get an update on anomaly / NOAA charts / AAM etc. GFS / ECM both have HP retreating back to the Atlantic, which seems to go against what some of the above have been indicating.

 

 And I would contest that the GFS/ECM 8-10 day shows the HP retreating back to the Atlantic. If anything, both show HP dominant over Scandinavia and generally close to us, no real LP anomaly in our vicinity, and both suggest a good chance of a warm flow for the British Isles. The ECM in particular, which is better and therefore more important, shows a promising arrangement for mid-late next week.

ECM vs GFS:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

 

Edited by wellington boot
Forgot to add link
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5 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

 And I would contest that the GFS/ECM 8-10 day shows the HP retreating back to the Atlantic. If anything, both show HP dominant over Scandinavia and generally close to us, no real LP anomaly in our vicinity, and both suggest a good chance of a warm flow for the British Isles. The ECM in particular, which is better and therefore more important, shows a promising arrangement for mid-late next week.

ECM vs GFS:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

 

The issue is that’ the Scandinavian HP begins to weaken, which allows pressure to fall over the U.K. It’s well outside the reliable though.

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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

A potentially convective and humid period looking possible into next week. S areas look at risk from thunderstorm activity initially before the risk pushes further N.

Models starting to hint at some good lightning potential.

there also hinting at sunshine potential , cloudy potential , hot potential , cooler potential , and probably one or two more potentials as well which are pretty academic at the moment with conditions 48 hours away still up in the air to some extent never mind next week

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Well uncertainty remains even as close as Saturday. Major question marks on the development and northwards progression of low heights that could form over France and as such how hot and how thundery conditions could be. Worth noting a few GEFs members keep a wide area hot on Saturday thanks to a cyclonic flow up from France, something the GEM does too.

This question mark extends into next week, but probably increasing risk of more unstable conditions and the return of warmer 850s to most of the country as a shallow trough moves towards the west of Europe. The UKMO for the start of next week is pretty outrageous, not sure there is anything real time event to compare those charts to.

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Arpege for Friday/Saturday

arpegeuk-31-66-0.png?05-06

arpegeuk-31-90-0.png?05-06

Also, the Ukmo bizarrely has the 20C uppers line parked on the south coast from Saturday until the end of the run - I say bizarre because it is so different to last night's 12Z.

But the trend is certainly to keep it a bit hotter on Saturday, again.

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I'm just going to put the UKMO uppers chart T144 here for reference. There's been no other chart like it for this timescale, even in the ensembles. So different to its run last night!

UW144-7.GIF?05-07

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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm just going to put the UKMO uppers chart T144 here for reference. There's been no other chart like it for this timescale, even in the ensembles. So different to its run last night!

UW144-7.GIF?05-07

Very unusual for UKMO to be so different to the pack! Still wouldn’t say no and maybe it’s on to something else the others have quite grasped yet! 

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25 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Arpege for Friday/Saturday

arpegeuk-31-66-0.png?05-06

arpegeuk-31-90-0.png?05-06

Also, the Ukmo bizarrely has the 20C uppers line parked on the south coast from Saturday until the end of the run - I say bizarre because it is so different to last night's 12Z.

But the trend is certainly to keep it a bit hotter on Saturday, again.

Is that a 44 I spy in France?

That's a bit too much for me,and I wouldn't be on my own I suspect.

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I knew it wasn’t sorted yet!

A shift hotter by GFS before it succumbed to its usual convective feedback issues.

A huge shift back hotter by UKMO as noted by MWB. It’s almost like the previous run some kind of bugged output - but probably just a bizarrely large fluctuation for the model.

ECM 00z tolling out, also has the hot air further north as of +120. A bit further than GFS. Let’s see how the low to the south is handled.

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Is that a 44 I spy in France?

That's a bit too much for me,and I wouldn't be on my own I suspect.

No 😂

That's the temperature scale going up to 46 degrees. The highest I can see is approximately 40c in France. 

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What a cracking GEFS 0z mean..soooo much better than last month..!!😍

74E86D06-3F68-45E5-A55C-C645132F9F1F.thumb.png.e773f18ec0747ccef4558e7489013514.pngE1BF2A79-A625-43F4-BC89-5A0B20EEE8F8.thumb.png.3953471a499c0fedf0d24b417b55a3cc.png633D6AA1-9E35-4092-902C-4B188C1F1A57.thumb.png.acdb8a0b4a1079844957f5bf818dbd14.png7087A4A1-994F-45FB-96EA-CF981F97CB93.thumb.png.d16b718a997a9a05314423e5505ab28c.pngDBD9F4D2-1578-4CD8-9599-9F8A69B3B9C3.thumb.png.268acd22d357c706f4535e0af34ea92c.png

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image.thumb.png.8b20130e722a8c6cb9c3d4c95da10cc0.png

Flow off the North Sea relaxes and the heat spreads back northwest. It’s similar to what was being modelled by ECM the day before yesterday.

None of the surprising low movement that GFs went with, which in further study is actually caused by a weak upper trough suddenly racing across to S England from west of Europe instead of remaining stalled there. The same process has been behind the other two runs in recent days that developed much more cloud and rain across S England.

Something to be wary of but seems a bit of a long stretch that the upper low would move like that.

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27 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm just going to put the UKMO uppers chart T144 here for reference. There's been no other chart like it for this timescale, even in the ensembles. So different to its run last night!

UW144-7.GIF?05-07

The ICON has some pretty hot uppers also.

7CD7E66A-62B3-403F-9328-6F2FB9857A41.png

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Posted (edited)

The GFS is slowly moving itself towards the other models, as you would expect it's been overly progressive in moving the hottest temperatures SE.

At the moment I still think a 36-37c looks possible on Friday, the air looks a touch cooler than last Friday but still crazy hot overall.

Afterwards it looks good and reasonably hot for the south but with a possible onshore E type flow the temps will be cooler then you'd expect with 15c isotherm sat for days. SW probably favoured in such a flow, though south coast counties probably still looking good for 30-32c most days. Beaches will be rammed!

The wildcard would be a shift back ESE. If that happens then we will drag ultra hot stagnant air back towards us. In such a situation, the record is probably going to be beaten. One to keep an eye on.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted (edited)

Ec T2 maxes are above 32c from Friday through to next Wednesday (se U.K.)  and thats with plenty of cape and precip around from Sunday onwards .... so max records probably not on the agenda but a sultry tropical spell v unusual for this country could well be - I guess, seeing as we can’t go to places like hong Kong at the moment, we can have their weather instead! 

Edited by bluearmy
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Well the ECM has returned to one of its hot runs from earlier in the week.

I won't post my "adjusted raw predictions" as there was a bit too much of an uproar the other night, but, basically, the South East would remain in the low to mid 30Cs from Friday until next Wednesday. The general area of heat much further north and west.

Just one run only (OK two if you count the UKMO!). Need more runs, even at this late stage.

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