Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Paceyboy]

21 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I do see where you're coming from, but, unlike when chasing winter charts, we've got rather accustomed in recent years to plume events being continually upgraded nearer the time rather than downgraded, would you agree!

I started posting ECM predicted temperatures last summer in the run up to the hottest day - I remember wondering if I really should post predictions of 38C or 39C on a D6 chart, wondering if it was too much hype, yet that's what the ECM was suggesting (with the adjusted raw), and it was bang on. Last week, it was miles *under* the eventual temperature - they all were - and the GFS was even more wrong. Do we just naturally remember disappointments more than successes?

So whilst I realise the ECM's more outlandish charts of the past 48 hours were perhaps not the most likely final outcome (and there are still plenty of ensembles that go that way, so don't write it off!), I think it is worth posting what the chart says whatever, and then we can all look back and see if it was onto something. 

I would agree and hopefully this time will be the case. I am cautiously optimistic this will happen and much of southern uk will have a few consecutive days around 30c.

I agree also that we do remember disappointments more and makes it all the more raw in the memory. Your adjustment of the raw goes down well and also ends up being quite accurate. 

Seen alot of outlandish ECM output folliwing that easterley that disappeard. I used to consider it more trustwortht until then prior to 2013!

I appreciate and enjoy reading your contributions and those of other experienced posters, please dont forget that those reading this!

[Paceyboy]

12 minutes ago, Kid Thunder said:

No, occasionally the GFS spots a trend well in FI and it takes other models time to catch up. This isn't one of those scenarios.

At the moment, nothing has verified and all I see is uncertainty from late weekend onwards. GFS has already started to back down from its overly progressive outlook. ECM is flip-flopping and only the UKMO seems to be consistent.

This isn't the time for back-patting of the GFS or any other model. Not yet.

Im with you, lets hope GFS is not with it this time. UKMO has been consistent it better not flip later!

[clark3r]

Don’t know how good the GEFS is? but it’s a hot run temps in mid thirties Friday to Sunday and continues 30 degrees + until Thursday, 32,33 Saturday in the south east very hot in France though 

Edited August 4, 2020 by clark3r

[Guest]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

The model output looks nothing like that. I’m not seeing any change over the weekend from what was already expected. It remains very warm/hot in the south east before the heat becomes more widespread again into next week. 

Just the usual knee jerk reactions from people this 

In all my years I've not experienced a summer with such strong winds on the coasts - I know as I'm a sea kayaker so speaking from experience. 

The GFS model shows plenty of rain and more strong winds after the brief 2 day settled spell - therefore a continuation of the overal poor wet and windy conditions, be it a tad warmer.

GFS is very poor if you are after a long settled calm spell for coastal regions, and I rate the model very highly when taken each run as an average over the days.

No knee jerk reaction, just basic evidence. 

[Man With Beard]

41 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Whats the raw temps for the midlands saturday?

Between 22C and 25C is the *raw* maximum. At the moment!

[Guest]

31 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

GFS has a weekend affair only - as for the mid of the week no way - a bit like last weekend - unfortunately me and the lad have to go to Bournemouth this week - wish us luck 

I've been waiting for a long period of calm weather too! The trend is against us but fingers crossed. 

[clark3r]

06z so far 27 possibly 28 as early as Wednesday 32 Thursday if the sun is out, 35 36 Friday, 32 33 Saturday then much cooler Sunday, any chance gfs and ecm will head towards ukmo tonight?

Edited August 4, 2020 by clark3r

[Guest]

Hmmm I know its the ICON but its 06Z run is more aggressive with cloud on Thursday and maxes are down generally 23-25C for most, 28C  in the south east. Then Friday even by 9-10am the sun goes into hiding in the west and by 3pm its right across London, if that happens maxes will be well down in the west and it could turn out a little disappointing even quicker than last Friday where here in Bournemouth it was apparently cloudy by 1-2pm. That said ICON still has maxes of 34C from London up to the Wash.....

[Guest]

GFS similar to its previous output, although by 15Z on Friday the 15C isotherm is a touch further south and the shortwave has dug down a touch further, its going to be another progressive run for sure.

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, DCee said:

In all my years I've not experienced a summer with such strong winds on the coasts - I know as I'm a sea kayaker so speaking from experience. 

The GFS model shows plenty of rain and more strong winds after the brief 2 day settled spell - therefore a continuation of the overal poor wet and windy conditions, be it a tad warmer.

GFS is very poor if you are after a long settled calm spell for coastal regions, and I rate the model very highly when taken each run as an average over the days.

No knee jerk reaction, just basic evidence. 

That evidence has to verify though - too many jump on the GFS bandwagon because of how much data we get to see and extrapolate opinions from. It's a pretty poor model and it'd drive us crazy (even more than now!) if it was the only one we could view.

[MattStoke]

27 minutes ago, DCee said:

In all my years I've not experienced a summer with such strong winds on the coasts - I know as I'm a sea kayaker so speaking from experience. 

The GFS model shows plenty of rain and more strong winds after the brief 2 day settled spell - therefore a continuation of the overal poor wet and windy conditions, be it a tad warmer.

GFS is very poor if you are after a long settled calm spell for coastal regions, and I rate the model very highly when taken each run as an average over the days.

No knee jerk reaction, just basic evidence. 

I don’t rate it all. It’s so often wrong in these situations and the verification stats show it. The comments this morning are the usual knee jerk nonsense. Suddenly everything has fallen apart and the GFS is king - Nonsense. There is nothing to suggest a prolonged return to wet and windy conditions. It looks very warm/hot to end the week, with the heat holding on in south eastern areas as it very briefly turns cooler elsewhere over the weekend before heat re-builds next week. No change to the outlook from yesterday.

Anyway. Automated Met Office forecast for Friday ups Heathrow’s maximum temperature to 37’C.

 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

I don’t rate it all. It’s so often wrong in these situations and the verification stats show it. The comments this morning are the usual knee jerk nonsense. Suddenly everything has fallen apart and the GFS is king - Nonsense. There is nothing to suggest a prolonged return to wet and windy conditions. It looks very warm/hot to end the week, with the heat holding on in south eastern areas as it very briefly turns cooler elsewhere over the weekend before heat re-builds next week. No change to the outlook from yesterday.

Anyway. Automated Met Office forecast for Friday ups Heathrow’s maximum temperature to 37’C.

 

I'm  not particularly liking its output for here, 21C Thurs & 25C Friday......really.....

[Daniel]

6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I'm  not particularly liking its output for here, 21C Thurs & 25C Friday......really.....

Ecm has 22c Thursday 28c Friday 27c Saturday 27c Sunday 27c Monday for Bournemouth Airport that's not bad tbf. 

Edited August 4, 2020 by Daniel

[MattStoke]

8 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Ecm has 22c Thursday 28c Friday 27c Saturday 27c Sunday 27c Monday for Bournemouth Airport that's not bad tbf. 

Add on the usual couple of degrees for correction and Bournemouth could be scraping 30’C on multiple days.

[clark3r]

Gfs does not look bad, very hot Friday, hot Saturday, warm Sunday Monday 27 in south east then hot Tuesday back up to 33 in south east 

[Uncle_Barty]

9 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Ecm has 22c Thursday 28c Friday 27c Saturday 27c Sunday 27c Monday for Bournemouth Airport that's not bad tbf. 

Likely to be 19/22/22/22/22 here in town unless a ENE'ly prevails and stops a sea breeze developing. The airport is a few miles inland over sandy soils.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Likely to be 19/22/22/22/22 here in town unless a ENE'ly prevails and stops a sea breeze developing. The airport is a few miles inland over sandy soils.

No way, SST's are maxing around 18C through the weekend I'm expecting 30C down to the coast as the sea breeze will likely be supressed. 

[qwertyK]

31 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I don’t rate it all. It’s so often wrong in these situations and the verification stats show it. The comments this morning are the usual knee jerk nonsense. Suddenly everything has fallen apart and the GFS is king - Nonsense. There is nothing to suggest a prolonged return to wet and windy conditions. It looks very warm/hot to end the week, with the heat holding on in south eastern areas as it very briefly turns cooler elsewhere over the weekend before heat re-builds next week. No change to the outlook from yesterday.

Anyway. Automated Met Office forecast for Friday ups Heathrow’s maximum temperature to 37’C.

 

But its actually only 35c on Friday if you look at the full forecast. BBC only showing 33C for Heathrow as well.

[Djdazzle]

GFS 6z wants to brIng back the heat next week it seems.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, qwertyK said:

But its actually only 35c on Friday if you look at the full forecast. BBC only showing 33C for Heathrow as well.

The full forecast tends to focus more on hourly snapshots though.

That said, I am sceptical about any Met Office forecast, which is a sad state affairs for what should be the go-to place for accurate forecasts.

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

The full forecast tends to focus more on hourly snapshots though.

That said, I am sceptical about any Met Office forecast, which is a sad state affairs for what should be the go-to place for accurate forecasts.

35-36’C would be my punt on the highest temperature for Friday. That’s about what the most accurate publicly available high resolution models are suggesting. Their in house model must be slightly hotter though.

[Evening thunder]

 

Friday the apparently 'locked in' hot day is looking sketchy for some, ECM has a band of cloud here and 21C in the afternoon.


Although it is hot for most of lowland England.

I don't think you can say there hasn't been any change/drift in the models.. well unless this thread's impression on previous days of a prolonged, widespread or record breaking heatwave coming was a bit off 

It's not a bad outlook, just again a little disappointing if you wanted something notable away from the SE.
 

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS 6z wants to brIng back the heat next week it seems.

Must admit I don't really see it on the temp charts unless you live in the SE. A lot of thundery activity on this run though.

Edited August 4, 2020 by Evening thunder

[qwertyK]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

35-36’C would be my punt on the highest temperature for Friday. That’s about what the most accurate publicly available high resolution models are suggesting. Their in house model must be slightly hotter though.

Certainly the hottest day of the "heatwave", after that the clouds move in with rain forecasted for monday next week in london

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by qwertyK

[Paceyboy]

Seems alot of cloud being forecast for certain times now when looked beautiful before. 

Hope this upcoming isnt a damp squib (or dry squib in the circumstances)

Lets hope the UKMO is right and the GFS falls from the throne.

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters for Saturday morning. Not what forecasters want to see! A perfect split between runs which introduce westerly source to northern areas only, and runs which will bring a westerly source to all areas! (Follow the lines)

A 5-10 degree difference possible between the clusters in central/eastern areas, at just T96!