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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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image.thumb.png.771bc2d5b0572fb2d4ddf939776c4c59.png

This is the extended surface and 500 mb flow from the UK Met model. To me not really showing what is suggested above. Just my take on this so feel free to shoot me down.

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...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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Quite a lot of rain coming next week for Scotland and parts of the north as low pressures zip through. I'm extremely sceptical of the very low rainfall in the south given the proximity of low pressures passing through the country, but I'm sure a multi-million pound weather computer knows better than me ?

228-777UK.GIF?04-12

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47 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Quite a lot of rain coming next week for Scotland and parts of the north as low pressures zip through. I'm extremely sceptical of the very low rainfall in the south given the proximity of low pressures passing through the country, but I'm sure a multi-million pound weather computer knows better than me ?

228-777UK.GIF?04-12

If that was because of thunderstorms I’d understand why my area is in the driest area on there 

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Mike’s ECM T0

Since the start of lockdown I’ve often commented on the ECM 12z run frame by frame.  Which I didn’t usually do.  I’m bored.  There has been nothing better to do.  But I intend to draw a line under this on Super Saturday,  and will comment on the models only generally, not frame by frame as I try to re-engage with the wonderful people around.  So, for one last time, all 10 frames, the 12z ECM as I really see it...T0:

ED3F6B56-3EF5-40FB-AE87-55503B97437C.thumb.gif.4f0dfca572e1fd97a1f68708c5fb0b0f.gif

I really cannot see why they publish this one, just look out of the window, the worlds gone mad!

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Mike’s ECM T24: 

EFB62503-94C8-46E8-AAC8-B4640638CEB8.thumb.gif.080498aefb530fa0598820611b0f1f38.gif

So there’s a major depression coming in, for summer, anyway. Fortunately, in my town hairdressers have been taking due precautions, some of the draped plastic and visors would not be out of place in an apocalypse drama (or maybe Dexter, if anyone has watched that).

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Mike’s ECM T48:

AEE81EA7-4E0C-4F6D-A5D5-10CE029894AA.thumb.gif.967b76d096edffdfa033b41ac0f70bc5.gif

It’s quiet, too quiet!  Weather is improving, but we don’t know whether the world still exists, government all but admitted that opening up the economy was a risk, are we still here?

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12z GEM and GFS look pretty similar at day 8 on how that high is positioned and it looks pretty good on both of those runs -

gem-0-198.png   gfs-0-198.thumb.png.b13666b63deb8374f57d1ab603392679.png

Edited by Zak M
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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Quite a lot of rain coming next week for Scotland and parts of the north as low pressures zip through. I'm extremely sceptical of the very low rainfall in the south given the proximity of low pressures passing through the country, but I'm sure a multi-million pound weather computer knows better than me ?

228-777UK.GIF?04-12

Good chart, but sorry MWB, are those accumulated totals between now and 14/7? 

Not that low away from South coast, really...

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Mike’s ECM T144:

AFCA0C80-8A1D-4DA5-AB1F-02EF288E7179.thumb.gif.084c7b6bc286189b7c4217a0ba644c4e.gif

To me looks less likely than the other runs to recover.  But what can we expect, we are allowed to go to the pub, encouraged to use the garden, outdoor gyms etc, I’m buying shares in waterproofs.

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3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Now THAT is what you call a perturbation...

Crikey :shok:

5_294_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.df6e09f49f2a9409d4f0e66c7a7413f6.png   gens-5-1-264.thumb.png.f4e753f7b2ae0c673b34ea0affdd4ed1.png   gens-5-0-288.thumb.png.24c6d44f641062575f401a9d0d804d1b.png

One perturbation, 12 days away, what could possibly go wrong? ?

I'm still enjoying 'average' anyway...

Edited by ribster
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1135C79D-609A-43A5-BA75-475DBBAEB9CA.thumb.png.b73f25f5e341b56d7f7ea722953d943a.png

I wouldn’t want to look too far ahead at the moment with this system that has rapidly developed in the Atlantic. Heading out towards the mid Atlantic by midweek, models notoriously don’t handle these well.

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18 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

Where is everyone.. ECM throwing out a nice run.. 

ECM1-216 (1).gif

I thought I'd wait awhile, so I could see what others are saying, before I posted the GFS 12Z ens... Heaps of scatter past around Day 9 -- and there's one 20C+ run in it? But the op looks like something you might tread in, on New Year's Day!:oldlaugh:

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

NH profiles:

npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

The Professionals (no, not Bodie & Doyle!:help:) must be pulling their hair out, when trying to make sense of some of the recent output!?

Edited by General Cluster
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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean T168, tempting, and T240, live with that!

1D377D60-96D7-4C87-9009-ADCAC38F7E7B.thumb.gif.f3f8707212e9d3fa574832774481fc38.gifCA2021C7-1A2C-4ADE-BEA5-ACF539769CDF.thumb.gif.f3b9d6c31f332c86afb5b899d0754ed9.gif

This will be my last post for a while.  It has been great that during the lockdown that this was the only one of my hobbies i could still do, but I must now divert my, now limited energies, however difficult, to rebreathe other areas of my life. My best wishes to all on here, some of whom might feel similarly.  Will be back when summer is back!

Best regards

Mike

Thanks for your contributions on here, Mike! If the ECM mean is anything to go by, you'll be back next weekend! Cracking UK high D7/D8, and the jet looks like it has lifted far north by D9/D10. A good chance to break out of the Atlantic dominance of last week and the one coming. 

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8B156ACE-0369-4A33-B0A3-04ED2B909AD9.thumb.jpeg.ef2bb8a0eef4e131ef0396db765576e4.jpeg

Just about sums it up. Strong jet across the Southern Hemisphere as you’d expect for mid winter.....the only strong jet (that really shouldn’t be this strong in July) pointed straight at the UK.

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

1135C79D-609A-43A5-BA75-475DBBAEB9CA.thumb.png.b73f25f5e341b56d7f7ea722953d943a.png

I wouldn’t want to look too far ahead at the moment with this system that has rapidly developed in the Atlantic. Heading out towards the mid Atlantic by midweek, models notoriously don’t handle these well.

Looks like an easy track with high confidence where it will end up to me ?

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Here is a broader view of tonight's ECM op run.. And regarding the mean we end up at around 1020mb by day 10 and out to day 14 we are on average at around 1018mb for the Midlands South. And around 1016mb further North.. Enjoy your evenings. 

modez_20200704_2200_animation.gif

modez_20200704_2200_animation (1).gif

Edited by MATT☀️
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