Model output discussion - into July 2020

[MattStoke]

Can probably add a further 2-3 degrees to the ECM raw temperature values. Although it was 5 degrees too low last Friday.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

My word, ECM is on steroids! One could rightfully question the temperature record going on that, as well as the night time minimum record. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

one more day for 40 degrees? if it is ever reached, Atlantic will likely break through that night

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

ECM seems to be screaming a 2003 potential when you look at the heat in France, mid to high 30s. Could be making news headlines soon.  

[Scorcher]

A really remarkable run from the ECM- one of the hottest ever seen? Even at the end of the run it's still hot for virtually the whole of the UK, although temperatures would have dropped back slightly at that point as the very hottest air shifts east. If this run came off, we'd surely be looking at the UK record going on Tuesday and possibly even 40C.

[Zak M]

This 12z ECM run has got to be my favourite run of this summer. Potentially record-breaking heat, as well as that nearby low potentially sparking big thunderstorms for a few days.

@240

Edited August 3, 2020 by Zak M

[Djdazzle]

This is even hotter than the 12z of a couple of days ago. 

[Djdazzle]

If this isn’t an outlier, then I’ll wear a pair of Chris’ dodgy shorts!

Have ECM and GFS ever been this far apart?

[Man With Beard]

So my take on this outrageous ECM run - taking raw values and adding 2-4C to get nationwide highest temps:

Thurs 30-32

Fri 34-36

Sat 35-37

Sun 33-35

Mon 36-38

Tues 38-40 (FORTY)

Weds 37-39

It's easy to forget this is the best verifying model in the world. Could it really happen? Feels like a dream.

 

 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

So my take on this outrageous ECM run - taking raw values and adding 2-4C to get nationwide highest temps:

Thurs 30-32

Fri 34-36

Sat 35-37

Sun 33-35

Mon 36-38

Tues 38-40 (FORTY)

Weds 37-39

It's easy to forget this is the best verifying model in the world. Could it really happen? Feels like a dream.

 

 

Probably get a watered down version or something between the GFS and ECM but nearer to the latter. Normally the case.

[Man With Beard]

25 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Can we see the storm potential day 7 onwards?

You might like this one Crewe. Thunderstorms into the night for the North West

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/significant-weather/20200811-0000z.html

 

[stodge]

As the usual fans of heat are salivating, I think we can assume there's plenty in the evening output to get them excited.

I'll cast my somewhat more jaundiced view over the gruel dished up thus far:

ECM 12Z certainly brings a spell of very warm weather starting from Friday and especially for southern areas. The 20c 850hpa briefly crosses the south coast on Tuesday so that looks the peak of the heat before at T+240 it all eases away.

As for the synoptics, as the HP builds into Scandinavia, the air source swings from NE through E to SE bringing up the heat but as the trough takes over the air becomes more unstable - a nice storm for midweek next week?

Now, as for GFS 12Z OP, let me introduce you to chalk vs cheese as we compare ECM at the same time:

GFS brings the Azores HP back in from the Atlantic keeping all that "lovely" heat trapped to the south. Probably more settled with GFS - the problem is if you want the heat you want the HP to the east, not to the SW.

Here's GEM at T+192:

There you have it - at T+192 three wildly divergent evolutions. A more pronounced trough so showers or thunderstorms for many especially in the south.

Anyone who is banking on record temperatures next week better hope ECM is correct - and you'd be foolish to dismiss it - but I wasn't convinced yesterday and I'm not convinced today.

[Mr Frost]

Piping hot runs this evening! Unbelievable stuff for the SE especially. 

UKV for Saturday 12:00 and 15:00

Standard stuff at the moment...35C!  

I am getting excited about all of this and I don’t even live down there! 

[clark3r]

As much as I would love the ecm to come off I worry about the vulnerable in that kind of heat, I think it is v unlikely to come off like the latest gfs, I do think we are in for a spell with temps well in to the thirties 

[Methuselah]

It's a bit like waiting ages for a London bus (in this case the Big 100)... and then three come along at once!

[Daniel]

Ecm for Southampton (where I live) if you would like one let me know your nearest official station 

 

[mushymanrob]

24 minutes ago, Kid Thunder said:

There's no way northern/central England will be anywhere near that cool.

Excellent ECM it must be said (dodgy temp profiles aside).

We could be with a gentle easterly.. possible north sea cloud too.. 

[Ice Day]

Well, there's not much more for me to add.  An insanely hot ECM run, which culminates in a potentially record breaking day 8.

MWB's post above estimating the daily temperatures says it all, it's fascinating viewing but also a little concerning!  Surely it's a warm outlier?

 

 

[Daniel]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Well, there's not much more for me to add.  An insanely hot ECM run, which culminates in a potentially record breaking day 8.

MWB's post above estimating the daily temperatures says it all, it's fascinating viewing but also a little concerning!  Surely it's a warm outlier?

 

 

Indeed it is a outlier 

[Ice Day]

.... and it is a warm outlier for days 6-9.  Still looking ruddy hot though!

Edit - Daniel beat me to it!

Edited August 3, 2020 by Ice Day

[Guest]

Well talk about Chalk and Cheese with ECM & GFS.....opposite ends of the spectrum. You'd have to fancy ECM being a pretty outlier beyond Saturday although both GEM and ICON are similar so I'd say there's probably more chance of national max of 35C on Monday than 23C which is what GFS is showing....

Very little in the way of TS activity until you get to Day8/9 as well. 

Edited August 3, 2020 by Guest

[Frosty.]

52 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Feels like a dream.

It could feel more like a nightmare if you don’t like heat, humidity and sweating like a pig!..but..if you do like / love heat..you couldn’t ask for better charts than the ECM 12z operational shows, and the mean looks amazing, for a mean!

 

[Daniel]

Looking at the ecm ensemble mean it would have temps reaching 30c from Friday to Tuesday for Southampton now that's one good mean! What should also be noted is there is a lot of scatter from Monday. 

Edited August 3, 2020 by Daniel

[Captain Shortwave]

   
 

So good support to keep a ridge east of the U.K. with a flow between the south and east. Also good support to introduce a weak trough from the west. In conclusion very warm or hot with possibly an increasing chance of something thundery developing. It certainly suggests something like the ECM op is possible.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Looking at the ecm ensemble mean it would have temps reaching 30c from Friday to Tuesday for Southampton now that's one good mean! 

Given the raw output for Monday for Southampton is about 30C looking at the above it suggests its in about the 75th percentile and certainly not a stonking outlier.