Model output discussion - into July 2020

[StormChaseUK]

Might be worth a bet on the UK record being broken this year.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens

   
 

Looks good for the heat to build from Thursday onwards (mind you Wednesday will probably be very warm for some as well). Southerlies likely Thurs/Fri/Sat with temperatures clearly on course to hit the mid thirties in the south. The detail after this still looks blurry to say the least, but heights maintained to the east look very likely to day ten. It doesn’t look like the Atlantic will get in, but of course unsettled weather can develop in other ways. For example some form of low drifting up from France is certainly possible (Thunderstorm risk).

Edited August 1, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T168, and we have +18C uppers on the mean  just off the SE.  Good reliability about this spell now, the only questions are how hot and for how long...

[Guest]

31 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So just for fun, here's what the ECM would mean for maximums if one adds the usual 2-3C :

Thursday 31-32

Friday  35-36

Saturday 36-37

Sunday 39-40

Monday 37-38

Tuesday 36-37

 

Anything like that happened it would be the greatest heatwave in U.K. history maybe not for longevity but certainly for intensity  - also a risk of a 25c min in London or on south coast with sea temps peaking.

[Earthshine]

45 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So just for fun, here's what the ECM would mean for maximums if one adds the usual 2-3C :

Thursday 31-32

Friday  35-36

Saturday 36-37

Sunday 39-40

Monday 37-38

Tuesday 36-37

 

Madness.  I remember seeing a theoretical weather forecast in 2080 (I think it was ITV) with temperatures similar to these.  Seems like it's arrived 60 years early 

[mb018538]

Everyone now....booooo! Rotten tomatoes!

Still an excellent mean.

[Man With Beard]

A tiny bit of balance based on the ECM ensembles :

- The ECM op is hotter than every other ensemble next Sunday 

- More than half the ensembles have cleared out the 90F temperatures by Sunday 

- The day of real focus is still SATURDAY. A very large number of ensembles would produce a maximum between 35C and 38C (maybe even higher on a few) 

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Everyone now....booooo! Rotten tomatoes!

Still an excellent mean.

While the operational output isn't definitively incorrect, the fact that it's a strong outlier from the ensemble spread, and the fact that its trend is to increase temperatures while that of the ensembles is to decrease them suggests that it's unlikely at this juncture.

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

While the operational output isn't definitively incorrect, the fact that it's a strong outlier from the ensemble spread, and the fact that its trend is to increase temperatures while that of the ensembles is to decrease them suggests that it's unlikely at this juncture.

But it does have support from other op runs, most specifically the GEM, but probably UKMO too if it went that far, and we are talking about a week hence when the higher resolution of the op runs might prove more indicative than the ensembles.  On the timescale of next weekend I’d watch all the ops together as a big ensemble, rather than the ensemble suites.

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

While the operational output isn't definitively incorrect, the fact that it's a strong outlier from the ensemble spread, and the fact that its trend is to increase temperatures while that of the ensembles is to decrease them suggests that it's unlikely at this juncture.

Then again, it’s run at a higher resolution. And has support from some of the GFS ensembles as well as the GFS parallel.

If similar op runs are produced tomorrow, it will be very interesting.

[MattStoke]

10 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Then again, it’s run at a higher resolution. And has support from some of the GFS ensembles as well as the GFS parallel.

If similar op runs are produced tomorrow, it will be very interesting.

I don’t understand why people post very little about the GFS Parallel when it verifies better than the older GFS which is generally poor in these setups.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I don’t understand why people post very little about the GFS Parallel when it verifies better than the older GFS which is generally poor in these setups.

Yes you are correct about the verification stats, here day 5:

But usually it is running one run or more behind the other models (on Meteociel anyway) so it kind of gets overtaken by events.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

So just for fun, here's what the ECM would mean for maximums if one adds the usual 2-3C :

Thursday 31-32

Friday  35-36

Saturday 36-37

Sunday 39-40

Monday 37-38

Tuesday 36-37

 

Nothing personal but I sincerely hope those values are too high, one day was bad enough without days on end-yuk

[Portsmouth Sun]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Nothing personal but I sincerely hope those values are too high, one day was bad enough without days on end-yuk

These are temperatures for the SE not Yorkshire where even yesterday it was not that hot.  For what it’s worth looking at the charts a settled very warm few days beckon within the next week. Yesterday temperatures soared, albeit briefly in the SE, but come Friday the models seem to indicate places further west could come up trumps with 35c plus temps.  

[ChannelThunder]

It's quite telling when the BBC app is already giving a 33C for Bramley next Saturday.

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, Lance M said:

It's quite telling when the BBC app is already giving a 33C for Bramley next Saturday.

34’C for Heathrow, with the Met Office giving 33’C. Yesterday’s temperature projection was 33’C just a couple of days before. They always get revised upwards nearer the time.

[ChannelThunder]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

34’C for Heathrow, with the Met Office giving 33’C. Yesterday’s temperature projection was 33’C just a couple of days before. They always get revised upwards nearer the time.

Exactly, if it says 33 now, then it's only going to get higher than that through the week!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Heat haters will cringe at these charts. No cold fronts to freshen things down from the west either like last night.. Some of the night time values next week look very high around next fri/sat night. . Wonder if the record of 24C could go?  

[Jason M]

Yesterday was remarkable given the fact that it was essentially a one day event. Its getting easier to achieve these extreme temperatures and goodness knows what we will see if we end up with a 4-5 day repeat. Interesting from a weather perspective but deeply concerning taking a wider view of things.

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Yesterday was remarkable given the fact that it was essentially a one day event. Its getting easier to achieve these extreme temperatures and goodness knows what we will see if we end up with a 4-5 day repeat. Interesting from a weather perspective but deeply concerning taking a wider view of things.

I think the next one might be a 4 day event, Jason.  Further west with the heat before it hits UK, slower moving with high pressure, we will see....

[Mapantz]

Rather a lot of general weather discussion going on in here.. model discussion only, please?

All other stuff can go in here

Cheers.

[Djdazzle]

Will the pub run try to trump the ECM . . .

[Jason M]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think the next one might be a 4 day event, Jason.  Further west with the heat before it hits UK, slower moving with high pressure, we will see....

Yup, and with very dry ground in the SE, higher than average SSTs, 4 days of heat...……     Goodbye UK record I'd have thought.

[bluearmy]

V  Low eps heights spread at day10 adds confidence 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Thankfully GFS isn't quite as hot here on Sat. 24-25c with a thunderstorm risk. Will take that.