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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Uppers of 21 at day 8...

 

If uppers at 21 if clear sunshine and previous days heat surely a chance the all time record would be at threat?

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...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

Self evidently this is yet more nonsense excessive hyperbole. Ultimately, and it seems ridiculous to have to keep mentioning it on the basis of the weather to come in the days ahead for many -  t

It gets a bit of a "boys own" scrum on here. Computer models being assessed like they are competing engines being road tested for performance.  Temperatures being frantically compared from one compute

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4 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Just goes to show how much warmer our heatwaves/spikes have gotten, over the years... in 1975, 28C was 'hot', 31C was 'very hot'... and 1976's record of 36C (recorded on only one day!) was exceptional?🤔

I remember when I was younger, 15-20 years ago, the top temp for the entire year would be either 32 or 33C - obviously in the south east. Nowadays we can get 31 or even 32 in the northwest, which hardly ever used to happen.

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Second pulse of uppers via the digging Atlantic upper trough is a sure fire way of getting some v high temps although that run seems to have slp a little on the low side overall in fi to provide the cloudless skies we would need to set records ... tbh, I would prefer the probable widespread thunderstorms that it would deliver !!

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Aside from the heat pump they're showing, it's interesting to see such cross-model agreement now when compared to earlier in the summer. Is this related to the fact the skies are once again full of planes by any chance?

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9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It is serious. 

That would undoubtedly put last years 38.7c under massive threat, and a realistic chance of 40c....probably the hottest run I’ve ever seen!

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9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Is that a raw 37C? You cannot be serious . . .

We all need to take a chill, it’s the model version of ‘Super Saturday’ BUT IS THAT A RAW 37c ON ECM

Clearly they’ll be flex in the output but as any year ever even had two separate spells that have delivered 35c? 

 

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Evening al!

Great posts in here today! Another fantastic week of model/chart viewing for the week ahead! 

Just a quick one - maybe we can squeeze in a bonus 30C day on Thursday before the main event arrives! 

UKV: Thursday 15:00

28C showing in the SE...quite a bit of cloud about so hopefully nearer the time that is not an issue. (These charts will of course change slightly over the coming days) 

D8B784B8-5C9B-4DED-8862-4B685DDBC581.thumb.png.11954320443930aeba36a7bff40fbf54.pngB4DB5E4C-53AA-4320-B4AC-D7104217F6EB.thumb.png.9418e09e454db4e0e029ac1c6908021d.png
 

Have a good night everyone! 

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7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

We all need to take a chill, it’s the model version of ‘Super Saturday’ BUT IS THAT A RAW 37c ON ECM

Clearly they’ll be flex in the output but as any year ever even had two separate spells that have delivered 35c? 

 

1911 is the only one I can think of.

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13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

We all need to take a chill, it’s the model version of ‘Super Saturday’ BUT IS THAT A RAW 37c ON ECM

Clearly they’ll be flex in the output but as any year ever even had two separate spells that have delivered 35c? 

 

Not quite, but last summer London had 34c in June, 38c in July, and then 3 consecutive days above 33c in August.

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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec op Sunday 18z sees 577 dam on the Kent coast ....yesterday was 576 

40C somewhere in the south east next weekend?

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3 minutes ago, Don said:

40C somewhere in the south east next weekend?

It’s possible 

just illustrating the potential next Sunday compared to yesterday following some v hot days when yesterday hadn’t seen such preparation 

next Sunday is a long way off though and plenty of time for things to swing the other way a bit ....

Edited by bluearmy
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