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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Afternoon all 🙂

    While the fans of heat are getting excited (it is August after all), I'm far from convinced.

    Once again, both the ECM 00Z and GFS 06Z OP runs show a second pulse of heat moving north out of Iberia next Friday and into Saturday. The 20C 850hpa flirts tantalisingly with the south coast but soon falls away 

    The GFS Parallel 00Z pushes that a bit further north (more akin to yesterday) as does the 00Z GEM.

    As we all have different interpretations, expectations and measures (it seems) of what constitutes "warm", "very warm" and "hot" everyone's view of what might happen will very.

    For me "hot" is 30-35c and "very hot" above that. Yesterday was very hot, the next plume looks more in the "hot" category and may settle back to nearer "very warm" (25-30c).

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    21 minutes ago, stodge said:

    Afternoon all 🙂

    While the fans of heat are getting excited (it is August after all), I'm far from convinced.

    Once again, both the ECM 00Z and GFS 06Z OP runs show a second pulse of heat moving north out of Iberia next Friday and into Saturday. The 20C 850hpa flirts tantalisingly with the south coast but soon falls away 

    The GFS Parallel 00Z pushes that a bit further north (more akin to yesterday) as does the 00Z GEM.

    As we all have different interpretations, expectations and measures (it seems) of what constitutes "warm", "very warm" and "hot" everyone's view of what might happen will very.

    For me "hot" is 30-35c and "very hot" above that. Yesterday was very hot, the next plume looks more in the "hot" category and may settle back to nearer "very warm" (25-30c).

    ......while forgetting that yesterday was showing in the "hot" category five days before it happened

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    50 minutes ago, stodge said:

    Afternoon all 🙂

    While the fans of heat are getting excited (it is August after all), I'm far from convinced.

    Once again, both the ECM 00Z and GFS 06Z OP runs show a second pulse of heat moving north out of Iberia next Friday and into Saturday. The 20C 850hpa flirts tantalisingly with the south coast but soon falls away 

    The GFS Parallel 00Z pushes that a bit further north (more akin to yesterday) as does the 00Z GEM.

    As we all have different interpretations, expectations and measures (it seems) of what constitutes "warm", "very warm" and "hot" everyone's view of what might happen will very.

    For me "hot" is 30-35c and "very hot" above that. Yesterday was very hot, the next plume looks more in the "hot" category and may settle back to nearer "very warm" (25-30c).

    There is so much support for a hot to very hot plume; it would take a huge backtrack to water it down to maxes below 30.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    Wishful thinking but judging by the changes in the output regarding yesterday’s plume over the past week. I think it’s more likely that it’ll upgrade rather than show cooler.

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  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 hour ago, stodge said:

    Afternoon all 🙂

    While the fans of heat are getting excited (it is August after all), I'm far from convinced.

    Once again, both the ECM 00Z and GFS 06Z OP runs show a second pulse of heat moving north out of Iberia next Friday and into Saturday. The 20C 850hpa flirts tantalisingly with the south coast but soon falls away 

    The GFS Parallel 00Z pushes that a bit further north (more akin to yesterday) as does the 00Z GEM.

    As we all have different interpretations, expectations and measures (it seems) of what constitutes "warm", "very warm" and "hot" everyone's view of what might happen will very.

    For me "hot" is 30-35c and "very hot" above that. Yesterday was very hot, the next plume looks more in the "hot" category and may settle back to nearer "very warm" (25-30c).

    Just goes to show how much warmer our heatwaves/spikes have gotten, over the years... in 1975, 28C was 'hot', 31C was 'very hot'... and 1976's record of 36C (recorded on only one day!) was exceptional?🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    10 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Just goes to show how much warmer our heatwaves/spikes have gotten, over the years... in 1975, 28C was 'hot', 31C was 'very hot'... and 1976's record of 36C (recorded on only one day!) was exceptional?🤔

    Yes, I remember the tabloids with the hesdline “80F - Phew, What a Scorcher!” How times have changed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, stodge said:

    Afternoon all 🙂

    While the fans of heat are getting excited (it is August after all), I'm far from convinced.

    Once again, both the ECM 00Z and GFS 06Z OP runs show a second pulse of heat moving north out of Iberia next Friday and into Saturday. The 20C 850hpa flirts tantalisingly with the south coast but soon falls away 

    The GFS Parallel 00Z pushes that a bit further north (more akin to yesterday) as does the 00Z GEM.

    As we all have different interpretations, expectations and measures (it seems) of what constitutes "warm", "very warm" and "hot" everyone's view of what might happen will very.

    For me "hot" is 30-35c and "very hot" above that. Yesterday was very hot, the next plume looks more in the "hot" category and may settle back to nearer "very warm" (25-30c).

    It's fair enough to want a bit longer to be convinced - D6/D7 is on the very edge of the reliable, and in winter we sometimes see cold spells go belly up at D4. But I'm just impressed at the consistency of the plume for Friday and Saturday across all runs, op and ens. I think the threshold has been reached to make a calculated prediction, and I don't think we're far off the point of no return for at least forecasting an incursion into the 90Fs, maybe another 24 hours to be sure. Plumes have an element of uncertainty but nothing like in winter when the outcome rests upon northern blocking, which the models are next to hopeless at forecasting 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    It's fair enough to want a bit longer to be convinced - D6/D7 is on the very edge of the reliable, and in winter we sometimes see cold spells go belly up at D4. But I'm just impressed at the consistency of the plume for Friday and Saturday across all runs, op and ens. I think the threshold has been reached to make a calculated prediction, and I don't think we're far off the point of no return for at least forecasting an incursion into the 90Fs, maybe another 24 hours to be sure. Plumes have an element of uncertainty but nothing like in winter when the outcome rests upon northern blocking, which the models are next to hopeless at forecasting 🙂

    Yes, more things have to fall into place to get deep cold into the Uk compared to high temperatures.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ICON 12z has some serious heat here T174:

    5B478EB1-3835-41F5-8D96-42E2E3574A79.thumb.png.5b82bf36facdfde91d9db850fe97324e.png650F6C43-CC5D-47F6-AFA2-3FBD4C42931A.thumb.png.18b15e831daf6e8665c79847fe5b5697.png

    Looks a longer spell next weekend, uppers not quite so hot but that longevity will allow the heat to build, but 18C uppers widely in the south on this run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

    UKMO almost identical to this morning. A really hot looking chart. 

    UW144-21.GIF?01-18

    Wow im surprised you have not ramped this chart up any further!!that looks absolutely STUNNING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!☀️🌡🔥

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Whoa daddy..here comes summer..again!😜

    36A0E208-7DD2-4CA6-90A9-E18FFBB092D0.thumb.gif.2b1ee2b42f3123386321ac064c0344e8.gif333D5106-BE38-45F3-AA29-F0128F47110D.thumb.gif.e8f8cfeb9666debf0ce2a538bd788a1f.gif2378FA55-A459-4564-8F65-13232C7E52C1.thumb.gif.827115c90440c41340041f16477e71c5.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    UKMO is looking very warm this evening .

    Strange that I am I'd love to see a 144 chart like that in November off a cold continent..

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  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    UKMO is looking very warm this evening .

    Strange that I am I'd love to see a 144 chart like that in November off a cold continent..

    Probably wouldn’t be that cold. More crisp and cool.

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  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    18 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    UKMO almost identical to this morning. A really hot looking chart. 

    UW144-21.GIF?01-18

    Looking at the 850s, probably mid/high twenties in the north, low thirties in the south. You would probably struggle to find a single cloud anywhere in the U.K. 

    Then there is the really intense heat to the south, which will be going only one way.

    The GFS comparison is kind of funny as such subtle difference seen to change the Atlantic profile from having a sharp trough on the UKMO to...

    image.thumb.png.b0d7134221ebe0b8843eaea839f5c740.png
    No trough at all virtually, yet the conditions over the U.K. and indeed Europe would be close to the same.

     

    Given the UKMO, it would be interesting to see a ten day model follow this path, just to see how extreme the later charts get.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Probably wouldn’t be that cold. More crisp and cool.

    My ideal Autumn weather 😊

    Takes me back to childhood memories ,often foggy and cool..(for avoidance of doubt I was born in the early 70's).

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    3 hours ago, stodge said:

    Afternoon all 🙂

    While the fans of heat are getting excited (it is August after all), I'm far from convinced.

    Why am I not surprised?? 🤣If you're not convinced by this, you never will be. The signals could not be any better from the ensembles for another hot spell. The GFS op is gradually coming into line with the others now as well. The UKMO is spectacular at 144 hrs this evening- if that doesn't convince you I really don't know what will!

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Yes,it's been a while waiting for an August to deliver.

    Ingredients seem loaded to a very warm first half of August as it stands.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z GEM @150:

    gem-0-150.thumb.png.de0c196b08ecea54aec6466ed290831b.png   gem-1-150.thumb.png.489b54120fd43c04b3d17db50266c9f4.png

    It's a scorchio!

    Cracking posts today guys, surprised my reaction button hasn't broke 😆

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  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    GFS 12z is hot. 30°C+ breached from Thurs until at least Wednesday in a large swathe of England.. allowing for the usual adjustment!

    image.thumb.png.a376210bc1cd93107a179fb8edd9b1aa.pngimage.thumb.png.3fd0aaac70ec670a7a608d40a0cf0895.pngimage.thumb.png.b2fbd32d765276a96ec841f9e8fc6f7f.pngimage.thumb.png.3ecffefae3a2c90e27d9b1335d8f8436.pngimage.thumb.png.435c726e116a74125c9398d837b56c0d.pngimage.thumb.png.4de2d3539fcf54877cc5cdd0d651581d.pngimage.thumb.png.d23f8d5f3e4331e65b0244f56892e74c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Zak M said:

    12z GEM @150:

    gem-0-150.thumb.png.de0c196b08ecea54aec6466ed290831b.png   gem-1-150.thumb.png.489b54120fd43c04b3d17db50266c9f4.png

    It's a scorchio!

    Cracking posts today guys, surprised my reaction button hasn't broke 😆

    That GEM 850s chart is ridiculous, Zak.  Last years record would be under threat with that.  To get the +20C isotherm that far north, brings places that are far from the coast into play, which may get hotter than the very SE, as happened with Cambridge last year.  

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Good chance of some new records later next week and over the weekend. Possibly by day and night. Horrible outlook.

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