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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    Could definitely be threatened. We’ve seen 35c achieved even in September a couple of times, in March (Cambs) and Bawtry (Notts). I don’t know exactly what years they were. 

    In March ???  Are you sure it wasn’t F ??. 
     

    incidentally, the meto were originally predicting today to be hotter than yesterday sun/mon forecasts whilst we were looking at nwp saying Friday ....  

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    In March ???  Are you sure it wasn’t F ??. 
     

    incidentally, the meto were originally predicting today to be hotter than yesterday sun/mon forecasts whilst we were looking at nwp saying Friday ....  

    Think he means the town of March, in Cambridgeshire.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    A nice thing to see would the GFS showing a run that doesn’t drop that area of low polar heights into Greenland. None of the other operational show this and this is at the 4-6 day range. That development is crucial as it impacts the level of amplification upstream and the strength of the jet exiting N.America. If it ditches this expect a sudden shift to an ECM/GEM solution, as much as the UKMO verifying would probably result in a potentially severe heatwave, I think that is probably too far the other way and an ECM/GEM blend is probably the most likely outcome.

    06z is a bit better with more separation between that polar low and the Atlantic trough.

    image.thumb.png.99ff2b6da72f311965e134ccab7828dd.png

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    The GFS remains the "dodgiest" model with its 06Z still skirting with more Atlantic influence, but even so it is very hot - Friday looking a particularly hot day on its latest run, probably into the 90Fs. Saturday/Sunday not out yet but I think they will also be hot, judging by the upstream trajectory. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    GFS 6z seems to take a small step towards the other output.

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    I can't help but look at some of the eye candy on offer the models are pumping out this morning. ECM forecasting higher temps for next weekend than it did for yesterday...As a country from never having officially record a 100f until 2003 to wait until 2019 to do it again I don't think is outlandish. But for it to happen again the following year is ridiculous, given some of output you couldn't rule out another run at 100f next weekend and it then happening twice in the space of 8 or 9days. That thought compared to our historical trends is a little scary even from someone who loves the heat like me.....

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    40 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    in my opinion having weather like this at this time of year is redundant , the nights are beginning to draw in now and sundown in London by next weekend is 8.35pm , even earlier further SE so those who want to spend their evenings in the sun will be out of luck , this type of weather would have been more useful in second Half June , First Half July where people could enjoy it , most on here probably will still think it's great and will enjoy but I won't be one of them

    I'm pretty sure my opinion on this is in the minority ie ME so I'll say no more on it

    Yup, we're on holiday, boating, and every MetO  or GFS showing possible Summer is fantastic

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    GFS 6z seems to take a small step towards the other output.

    Indeed it is, Friday and Saturday looking particularly hot, 35/36C looks likely again with a pocket of 18-20C uppers over the southeast and several days worth of day on day heating. Yesterday those with the heat generally escaped with dew points around 10C the airmass next weekend looks much more humid along with some very high minima. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 06Z at T+192: loads for heat around; and, for those of us in the Triangle & Cone (a good pub name?) plenty more storms to miss!:oldlaugh:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    24 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Indeed it is, Friday and Saturday looking particularly hot, 35/36C looks likely again with a pocket of 18-20C uppers over the southeast and several days worth of day on day heating. Yesterday those with the heat generally escaped with dew points around 10C the airmass next weekend looks much more humid along with some very high minima. 

    Certainly not true of this area, Td 13 C early am increasing to 15 tempo 16 C pm and of course around the storms 20C

     

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Was there as superadiabatic lapse rate yesterday? doesnt that ramp up temps? @johnholmes ? would that explain the higher then expected temps?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    18 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Certainly not true of this area, Td 13 C early am increasing to 15 tempo 16 C pm and of course around the storms 20C

     

    Nor here, John... When I got home yesterday afternoon, Beccles was at 31C and I was shiny with sweat, which, had the Td been only 10C, would not have been the case. And I think it stayed near 20C, overnight, in Norwich... So, IMO, pretty humid?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    Nor here, John... When I got home yesterday afternoon, Beccles was at 31C and I was shiny with sweat, which, had the Td been only 10C, would not have been the case. And I think it stayed near 20C, overnight, in Norwich... So, IMO, pretty humid?

    Jeez Louise Ed I was sweating like a pig yesterday but I will absolutely love sweating like a pig if the ECM 0z op is correct!!!?😜

    2BEE0474-2E65-4444-9164-B4B2EFD1DC38.thumb.png.c9ba3f8dd58eb3bfc4967a86945c5e82.png3526FD1C-D902-4975-AE05-B49FB6213C6F.thumb.png.d2f9812bd32c0556e1c0be91ea619dae.png6DE50E5C-B5B7-43B3-A647-540918CC9265.thumb.png.60fdfae3a88764d405e70316c9538ecc.png7D13C62C-EB09-4BD1-9370-E10640264062.thumb.png.aaa238c9aeb0e68c9c27e47b25d824a7.png

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    Minor tweek to a word to avoid offence.
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Potential for a number of consecutive days to exceed 90F, and it will certainly feel like it, with the extra humidity.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton

    BBC have updated for London back to 34 next Saturday, hoping we get at least a 4 day heatwave as current output, hoping this doesn’t get watered down to a one day event and hoping peak heat is at the weekend so can enjoy it 😀

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Potential for a number of consecutive days to exceed 90F, and it will certainly feel like it, with the extra humidity.

    What amazes me, DJ, is that, after 46-years' spent waiting for the UK to breach the (then seemingly almost as unbreachable as were the Walls of Constantinople) 100f barrier, we now have the very real possibility of seeing it go twice in the same year!🤔

    As the late, great Sir Richard Burton once said: Who would have believed...?:oldgrin:

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    41 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Don't know mushy, was not watching things too closely but the Max values for several places were quite well predicted close in by the models I thought. Just prior to the storms reaching here it was almost what we used to call 'day darkness', very eerie a sort of blackish-greeny colour to everything, and I only got 1.4 mm, the storm(s) looking at the radar late last night when I got back appeared to split either side of my post code.

    I don't fancy another repeat of the humidity and temperature for next weekend so for once hope the models are way out!. The anomaly charts suggest a sort of rinse and repeat of Atlantic and heat. It amuses me when folk, only a week or so ago, where talking of the end of summer.

    Just for info the latest 500 mb anomaly charts

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    Quite, John. Where’s everyone favourite doom monger who predicted summer was over in July gone? Does my absolute head in when we get these posts in any season. Looks like yet another example of this ringing true coming up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Clusters this morning. T168 - can't really get more agreement on a plume that this - all clusters almost straight lines from the south or SSW

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020080100_168.

    By T240, some weaknesses in the ridge incoming from the west but with the block to the east still there, a good chance the heat may persist even this long. 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020080100_240.

    With a lot of moving parts in the pattern and the main ridge some way east of the UK, it will be hard to achieve a 1995 style long term heatwave, but it could happen if the Azores High ridges back in around D10 (like cluster 4) - sometimes the models are slow to pick this until D7/D8 - or if the Scandi High proves very resilient. 

    Summing up: getting more and more likely that Thursday to Saturday will be increasingly hot. If it breaks down earlier than Sunday (D8) that would be slightly earlier than might be expected, and if the heat extends beyond D10 then that's probably a bit longer than might be expected. 

    Would be a major model failure if the plume did not materialise, given that level of support.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Quite, John. Where’s everyone favourite doom monger who predicted summer was over in July gone? Does my absolute head in when we get these posts in any season. Looks like yet another example of this ringing true coming up.

    Indeed. Highly conspicuous by their absence! I think this summer has really gone against the “front loaded” prediction, which seemed like the form horse. This is why I love the weather: it’s always two steps ahead of us, and defies all logic.

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