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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Look what the CFSv2 is showing for week 2... looks like a blocking if I'm correct? ?

    wk1.wk2_20200702_z500.thumb.png.b412bcf9082458fc75f064952d5853fd.png

    Meanwhile, the 12z ICON has just rolled out, and it's showing the warmer and more settled conditions to be confined to the south

    anim_kar6.thumb.gif.e33c2b2af534375168469d66a93bea19.gif

    Doesn't matter what model it is when you got a 120-140knt Jet overhead its never going to be pretty 

    ICON for T+72 & T+120

     

     

     

     

    ICOOPEU12_72_21.png

    ICOOPEU12_120_21.png

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    UkMO 144 - Col

    9B150FA7-9940-41A3-9182-F3A012E79343.thumb.gif.4e76497d3e66c45b2a1b27e75a60e9ef.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Without getting all moany, I don't like where GFS 12Z is going, running lows closer and closer to the UK through next week and but looks a though it finally will build high pressure but again all day 8+ and UKMO while at least slack at T+144 and gives us a breather from the incessant wind that chart is absolutely inviting trouble and I'd bet my house if there was a 168/192 we'd end up under a slow moving trough.....

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Without getting all moany, I don't like where GFS 12Z is going, running lows closer and closer to the UK through next week and but looks a though it finally will build high pressure but again all day 8+ and UKMO while at least slack at T+144 and gives us a breather from the incessant wind that chart is absolutely inviting trouble and I'd bet my house if there was a 168/192 we'd end up under a slow moving trough.....

    Nice edit ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    A look at UKMO GEM and GFS at 144hrs..settled to the south not so settled further North... I said last night the EC46 was average at best, and it appears Exeter may have followed it.. Don't want to discredit anyone on here but these long range efforts from both them and the Beeb are leaving alot to be desired.. The 46 has never highlighted the conditions that they were putting out the last few days.. The mind boggles. 

    But we should get some fine conditions during next week at least in places.. And you know what it's possible we could go against the climatic norm for this August and at last get a decent month.. I can't see this pattern holding firm for all 3 months. But let's be honest if you want great weather right now, the only option looks to be a cheap Mediterranean Holiday. ?

    gem-0-138.png

    UW144-21.gif

    gfs-0-144.png

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Fag-end of the GFS 12Z looks okay...But, IMO, when the MetO are chopping-and-changing their monthly forecasts (almost daily) you know there are uncertainties ahead. Even more uncertainties than usual!:oldlaugh:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    C47AFAF0-4267-4E7E-B7F3-E65E2744611A.thumb.jpeg.b9b1676c2be32a6d8d956ff9525de35a.jpeg88038E98-EAF1-4838-8E14-CB9C33FDCD3F.thumb.jpeg.a8a37f782280ae66479c6fcea1c63a11.jpeg
     

    GFS 12z - a snapshot of a few days time vs the latter stages of the run. Much better polar profile, and something we’d need to switch things up.

    Yes,something I have been looking at over recent days.The meto outlook lended support to the proposed drop in pressure across the Pole and knock on effects at mid latitudes (positive for summer lovers).

    Exeter have backed off a little today so we will have to wait to see if the ridging from the Azores is downgraded which will of course have an effect across the UK..

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    55 minutes ago, Tamara said:

    All those things are possible. But in summary - if anyone expects guarantees and magic bullets, at any time of the year, then there will inevitably be disappointment (and disillusionment) at some time or other. More often than not as well.

    This should be pinned to the top of every MOD thread for evermore!!! 

    Onto the 12z's, some decent agreement at 168 and 192 between the ECM and GFS

    168

    image.thumb.png.83040cd943182267374f41c4e810979f.pngimage.thumb.png.195203cc0e07f41fbc99885077b9055d.png   

    Then at 192, which is looking pretty good to me!

    image.thumb.png.2078aa8153f7479a287befaadbd8e6ef.pngimage.thumb.png.8e0461c000bbc72b17eb700e1c378846.png 

    Overall, the waxing and waning is going to continue for the next few days, best in the south (I'm not going to say the rest ?).  Then the possibility of something better nationwide next weekend.... hopefully!

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z ECM @216

    1198066682_ECM1-216(2).thumb.gif.e1efd9b22bb8e56fca99bd73c34da87e.gif

    That's quite good tbh, it could have been worse...

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z ECM @240

    1969582513_ECM1-240(1).thumb.gif.53f0635a09411cebc1d59c055d46e435.gif

    Alright run this.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    We can’t see to shake off the general ridge trough scenario as the Azores trends to Atlantic ridging rather than extending towards nw Europe .... no reason at this time to expect any change and caution on the six day means as with much of the troughing looking to be quite shallow, the mean will look more promising than it actually is. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    We can’t see to shake off the general ridge trough scenario as the Azores trends to Atlantic ridging rather than extending towards nw Europe .... no reason at this time to expect any change and caution on the six day means as with much of the troughing looking to be quite shallow, the mean will look more promising than it actually is. 

    I'm sure you are absolutely correct..

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Yes Zak a good day ten indeed?

    and to add to that including the ECM,the gfs op,control and mean at day ten are also showing some settled conditions,are we going to see a trend here,i hope so

    ECM1-240.thumb.gif.c7cf1c4956ca2ffdaba8a3884b801bc5.gifgfs-0-240.thumb.png.7e483fb4dff72cd6ff0a92949d3c2fa3.pnggens-0-1-240.thumb.png.07288ab880ce89b8180beee08288e971.pnggens-21-1-240.thumb.png.5c6c422602982db8346b9ecab9511112.png

    a quick glance at the pressure chart and the ens look quiet consistent up to the 13th(black circle) but huge scatter afterwards,it is from the 13th that i will be keeping my tabs on to see if we can gain on some more height's 

    graphe4_1000_313_144___.thumb.png.9aeab09020e0c09a6c816f1103c95090.png

    the JMA last night was a good run out to 264 but this is pushing the tin a bit?

    J264-21.thumb.gif.d63afc1a93f19bf4687583846b6def0d.gif

    tonight's JMA at 192 ain't bad either

    J192-21.thumb.gif.b7f58ffe2d8f700f21d1f2f763b05e7c.gif

    i have not posted for a couple of days because there wasn't that much to post about really and it has just been mundane weather all week and i would be one of the first to jump on here if there is even the sniff of decent weather showing in the models but lets not get too carried away ATM

    pubs open tomorrow....yay! but lets be sensible peeps

    have a good evening and weekend all and stay safe.

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The ECM mean at day ten v's the GEFS mean and ecm pressure

    EDM1-240.thumb.gif.60c518bc03a3709ea03de37b55d59872.gifgens-21-1-240.thumb.png.cb45daf117f9b7206e7887f110c1dd5e.pnggraphe1_00_313_145___.thumb.png.ed8d588ca60539322f35a8457b365219.png

    bam...i will take that?

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    added info
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM control run is similar to the op at D10

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m0_sea-level-pressure/20200713-1800z.html

    About 50% of tonight's ensembles have a UK high at D10, many of which drift NE in the days after. 

    Very interesting - not many Icelandic lows by D10, suggesting the Atlantic is to have a slow down? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Just catching up..well, there are some good signs, especially longer term..here’s a T+240 snapshot from various output and beyond that, the Gfs 12z looks very pleasant..better from the ECM to!!!?

    930BAF4E-5F3F-49E0-8E51-969BDE49B61F.thumb.gif.f1a5ac14d1fa0ccbdb6405be14651bbd.gif0F297C8B-0488-4911-95F2-31D490E080D1.thumb.gif.757ca81e0bf50a860ac3810acfa6bbeb.gif043ECA33-0192-4D78-83FF-D46C17A24746.thumb.png.bef55ed4da7218863e0924c32a3e5040.png23F62DE0-7B3B-43CA-BADF-437F89141562.thumb.png.d08c5bc827a6ad406c65b22a5192dd22.png5B4A92A5-4D2F-45B1-8A38-765F27134DD2.thumb.png.c813bd08730eefbeffe0ed22bfcf98c8.png7167EB05-E1D4-4E66-BA00-29011D86D178.thumb.png.798df4919384682595865f456fc20e34.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    ECM control run is similar to the op at D10

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m0_sea-level-pressure/20200713-1800z.html

    About 50% of tonight's ensembles have a UK high at D10, many of which drift NE in the days after. 

    Very interesting - not many Icelandic lows by D10, suggesting the Atlantic is to have a slow down? 

    Yes MWB after viewing the EC weeklies the precipitation amounts for Iceland are very low through mid month and out to the end.. These low pressure systems seem to be situating over Scandy where the precipitation amounts are very high at this time frame. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    37 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Yes MWB after viewing the EC weeklies the precipitation amounts for Iceland are very low through mid month and out to the end.. These low pressure systems seem to be situating over Scandy where the precipitation amounts are very high at this time frame. 

    Ideally we would want the jet up towards Iceland.Low precip in that part of the world not usually a good sign of the UK ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, the GFS 00Z doesn't look too bad, to me; it even looks rather good, post Day 10:?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And neither do the GEFS 00Z ensembles resemble anything from a horror movie:?‍♂️

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    NH profiles:

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

    So nowt to disastrous there, either.:oldgood:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Not too much to add this morning other than Friday is starting to have the risk of being a stinker too:

    7F44AA58-961B-4ABA-B886-08DD61DEE98A.thumb.gif.37df4f3501dcd06f9c1563b42065a974.gif999C58F5-89D8-420E-9E6D-B8A93ABBC0CF.thumb.gif.97b88f144d11c46d37997ec9c6249f6e.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

    Not too much to add this morning other than Friday is starting to have the risk of being a stinker too:

    7F44AA58-961B-4ABA-B886-08DD61DEE98A.thumb.gif.37df4f3501dcd06f9c1563b42065a974.gif999C58F5-89D8-420E-9E6D-B8A93ABBC0CF.thumb.gif.97b88f144d11c46d37997ec9c6249f6e.gif

    Yep, really quite disappointing temps down and rain on increase even in the south. It’s clear to see we are in a very different place to where we were in spring. 

    A823F661-260A-42EF-86BA-D6FEEEB841F8.thumb.png.2206499b23d55946de6666cce011d9d3.png>E9E6E5CF-3F89-4961-81E3-C5A58B5188B3.thumb.png.0339d4180fc1a7eaf309df3f4d99202a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    Not too much to add this morning other than Friday is starting to have the risk of being a stinker too:

    7F44AA58-961B-4ABA-B886-08DD61DEE98A.thumb.gif.37df4f3501dcd06f9c1563b42065a974.gif999C58F5-89D8-420E-9E6D-B8A93ABBC0CF.thumb.gif.97b88f144d11c46d37997ec9c6249f6e.gif

    Indeed, the 6z is looking somewhat similar.  Friday is certainly shaping up to be a bit of a rotter!  It's what happens after that's now of interest as the ECM looked pretty good days 8-10

    image.thumb.png.3decff1c1372dca2d4408c6819a2a836.pngimage.thumb.png.cbb8431930bb1927a439f866afc93e6d.png 

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