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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    GFS 168. Cut off low out west screams heatwave potential.

    image.thumb.png.54448668c057d4cef12cfd1f5482334b.png

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    GFS 168. Cut off low out west screams heatwave potential.

    image.thumb.png.54448668c057d4cef12cfd1f5482334b.png

    By the weekend we're looking at high 20s/low 30s widely for England, and that's with the GFS's famous underestimation of max temps 😎

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Unfortunately it does indeed look like we will see another hot spell around next weekend with both the Euro and GFS advertising this albeit in different ways. 

    Euro is essentially from day 7 a plumy pressure build (important because the plume at the start means high uppers in the high rather than spending days waiting on them). 

    spacer.png

    GFS is essentially a bit more like the spell in the second half of June in that the trough is more dominant and so its much less stable.

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    2 hours ago, MattStoke said:

    It’s the way all computer models work. The temperature they give is the maximum for the preceding interval rather than for that precise period of time. I think it’s for the preceding 6 hours but could be 3 hours. Either way, it only showed a high of 32’C today, and widely lower than that. About 6 degrees off across the board.

    Thanks for that 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    I’ve had little time for watching the models in any detail in the last few days, but impressed by the hot day today, temperatures exceeded my expectation of about max 36C.  But on to the future, and here are the main models at T144:

    A11A81A5-99A3-48AF-9B87-C11C22A21FB2.thumb.gif.697fbacafa818eb3951ea3bb5150d4d0.gif7406AAC2-6103-418C-912F-D31698DC3AE4.thumb.png.adc29f95c0d46e32562265b2d7328267.pngDE8AEDFB-6DAF-49CA-98E8-FF701BB60B28.thumb.png.728a3fab19ee30de7dcbd328cac39fee.png2400B4D6-2A54-482D-B5A6-AD908518558B.thumb.gif.bd485486fdae3411aa20b69fefea1c1d.gif

    GFS less keen on the plume, GEM and UKMO more keen and a hot start to August looking the form horse.  ECM maybe in between re amplification where it is needed.  Let’s see how this one develops...

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    Just now, Djdazzle said:

    ECM 168

    image.thumb.png.a3ff90014a890ebd4bafec9e02f88e8c.png

    Yeah Jeez 

    DFC5D96E-3BDC-4431-9B8A-BE99CEB34203.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T192, another good dose of heat from the southeast.

    37337812-01B9-477E-BFF3-6C0929E4F3D9.thumb.gif.a45d333f6cfd6cc0c28945be136c23b4.gif6F04716A-D179-496B-82DE-AA8A27BBA30C.thumb.gif.64d565df44bf48314fa4d2ca16bcaa00.gif

    Interesting to compare 850s with GEM at same time:

    391C2945-9E99-4DD2-BAD1-A717BFAC5062.thumb.png.befa6dac347f37cfabc3a3fe420b848b.png

    Here high temperatures much further west, so influencing for longer.  ECM looks another short sharp shock.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Yes, well, as one short-lived heatwave moves off, we start looking at the next one.

    GFS 12Z is a case of "close but no cigar" - warm yes but the 20c 850hpa line stays just to the south. GEM is much the same.

    ECM 12Z is rolling out and, as is often the case, more of a friend for the fans of heat. Even so, it looks as though, for now, and I'm sure it will change a lot in the coming days, the heat may not quite be as extensive as it has been today.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Mind you, this time last week, there was no sign of 20C uppers. So who knows?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    14 minutes ago, stodge said:

    Yes, well, as one short-lived heatwave moves off, we start looking at the next one.

    GFS 12Z is a case of "close but no cigar" - warm yes but the 20c 850hpa line stays just to the south. GEM is much the same.

    ECM 12Z is rolling out and, as is often the case, more of a friend for the fans of heat. Even so, it looks as though, for now, and I'm sure it will change a lot in the coming days, the heat may not quite be as extensive as it has been today.

    I don’t agree re the GEM, I think it is the better run. Some seem to be getting overexcited by the +20C isotherm, it is a recent visitor only in recent years, previously once a decade, and in those days the best heatwaves generally started further west, as per the GEM.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Not worth worrying about at this stage, but the ECM 240 chart looks like it would lead to a trough splitting the high pressure and heading over the UK. No way we could be that unlucky again!

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    47 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    ECM 168

    image.thumb.png.a3ff90014a890ebd4bafec9e02f88e8c.png

    The output of the past 48 hours has been overwhelming, and I'm fairly confident we will get that heatwave next weekend (one that will include more of the country, too), but with the yellows not too far off the Irish coast, I'd still like a couple more days before considering this to be "in the bag". 

    ECM raw maximums from Friday 7th to Monday 10th are around the 28C mark each day - which we know will be an underestimate of between 2C and 4C, or even 5C like today though that's unusual - I'll leave others to do the maths 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Definately got the looks of a possible heatwave, though caution should be had that this whole set-up is still a ways away in the grand scheme of things and it wouldn't require too much of a shift SE to put the UK back into the cooler set-up around the south-east side of the upper low.

    Also, hurricane Isaias may well prove to be a wildcard here depending on the exact track and how much land interaction it ends up having....both in a good or  a bad way in terms of any heatwave in the 5-10 day range,

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    I think we now have a good idea of the form horse for next weekend and beyond.  It is hot and sunny, this ECM mean is sensational:

     anim_pgt2.gif

    With longevity in that in my view.  What has changed?  Well AAM for one thing, here CFS take:

    4165E758-6BB7-48CA-9A7E-538D991E2E87.thumb.png.c3e233610a8b050a73fe25e5645420a9.png

    Yes, I know CFS is like a yearly stopped clock, right twice a year.  It has been forecasting this for two months and no show, but it is showing now and promotes a great start to August.  It’s been a while since we said that.  In fact, given it was 2003, it was ten years before I joined Netweather!

    Any updates gfs 18z? Still flat or more amplified?

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Day 6 charts

    GFS

    gfs-0-144.png

    Now the thing that bugs me is the area around Greenland and the model's persistence at placing some very low heights over the region, which doesn't appear as influential on any of the other runs. It would certainly produce a flatter solution.This run sees a brief plume at the end of next week before high pressure builds more strongly across the UK.

    UKMO

    UW144-21.GIF?01-06

    Best chart of the entire summer. the Atlantic trough has dug as far south as the Azores with high pressure over most of Europe. The day 7/8 could be spectacular with heat pumped directly northwards.

    GEM

    gem-0-144.png?00

    Between the two options above, looks like a southerly plume setting up, Friday and Saturday are very hot with the 20C isotherm getting into the UK again before a cold front struggles through.

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