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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    35 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

    Met office have had a shocker this year with their 30 day forecasts. Warm and settled weather has been 2 weeks away for 3 months now according to them.

     

    Edited by johnholmes
    not model related-apologies
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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    I know not everyone is a fan of heat so this chart is for you , Cool and wet also Windy .

     

    8C4FB9DF-DFF3-4471-8AD0-6C735DDD0BD1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Met office now put a warning out for thunderstorms this afternoon across the south East...

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    22 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

    Astonishing, in your face Gfs..not even close!!!..I feel a Roy Castle (god rest his soul) record breaker 31st July..for anyone old enough to remember record breakers!!!😜

     

    8D1BB72B-0D29-45D0-8BCE-C4ACF63CD7B1.png

    Look at the time on that chart, 18.00 GMT which is 19.00 BST. Looks entirely reasonable to me

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic

    Blimey! Record might be under threat, at this rate

    6DC08C87-459B-4C2E-8766-720EAD5E4650.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    38 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

    Blimey! Record might be under threat, at this rate

    6DC08C87-459B-4C2E-8766-720EAD5E4650.png

    Yep....

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    37.8c (100F) at Heathrow. This means that even the ARPEGE has underestimated the temps.

    Holy bejesus.

    Amazing Zak.. There's climate change for you.. Many years ago you may have needed a run of warm days to end up with this kind of temperature.. These days it appears we can nudge 100F in the space of 48Hours..pretty worrying when you think hard about it.. But it is what it is unfortunately ☀️

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    20 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    UKV chart for 15:00 (Saved this from the 09Z run this morning)

    37C for today.

    17747F88-EFD8-4AB6-A0B1-00407977BE0A.thumb.png.ba818dd5d0cfe38f8875ccd31532d117.png

    It started off earlier in the week with a high of 32C! Then gradually increased the maximum each day with 36C showing yesterday lunchtime. (Posted in here)

    Great stuff from everyone in here this last ten days or so - really enjoyed the build up to this plume! We have got the wonderful high temperature...bring on the spectacular thunderstorms now! 😄 (Keep an eye on the sky - who knows what will pop up!)

    Have a good weekend everyone!

    Even that has been a touch too low. Just shy of 38’C at Heathrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    37.8C at heathrow?? In that case I think its worth mentioning the July 2006 record in Wisley which was 36.5 has been broken three times in just five years, 2015 (36.7) , 2019 (38.7) and then again 2020.  Also there was speculation around the end of July 2018 that it would reach 37/38C but was cut short when the heat was pushed away too fast. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    10 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    37.8C at heathrow?? In that case I think its worth mentioning the July 2006 record in Wisley which was 36.5 has been broken three times in just five years, 2015 (36.7) , 2019 (38.7) and then again 2020.  Also there was speculation around the end of July 2018 that it would reach 37/38C but was cut short when the heat was pushed away too fast. 

     

    Bet you were thinking about changing your name when you saw the 37.8c 😅

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    13 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    37.8C at heathrow?? In that case I think its worth mentioning the July 2006 record in Wisley which was 36.5 has been broken three times in just five years, 2015 (36.7) , 2019 (38.7) and then again 2020.  Also there was speculation around the end of July 2018 that it would reach 37/38C but was cut short when the heat was pushed away too fast. 

     

    That is amazing but looking that the regional breakdown there's reasonable evidence to suggest heatwaves are generally becoming shaper and more biased towards the south east. Despite the repeated recent records the last time Bournemouth officially reached 32c/90f was the day of the wisley record in 2006, 32C happened regularly in 1989/90/94/95/2003/06 here. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    3 hours ago, chapmanslade said:

    Look at the time on that chart, 18.00 GMT which is 19.00 BST. Looks entirely reasonable to me

    It’s the highest temperature projected for the preceding 6 hour period. The GFS temperature predictions are woeful. 6 degrees too low.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    It’s the highest temperature projected for the preceding 6 hour period. The GFS temperature predictions are woeful. 6 degrees too low.

    They have always been woeful for the U.K. Not sure what they are like in other parts of the world.

    Models looking good for more plumes - hoping for a cracking12z suite.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    It’s the highest temperature projected for the preceding 6 hour period. The GFS temperature predictions are woeful. 6 degrees too low.

    Really ? It says valid 18.00GMT with nothing about the last 6 hours ???

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

    Really ? It says valid 18.00GMT with nothing about the last 6 hours ???

    It does, but it’s always worked that way.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    1 minute ago, chapmanslade said:

    Really ? It says valid 18.00GMT with nothing about the last 6 hours ???

    It’s the way all computer models work. The temperature they give is the maximum for the preceding interval rather than for that precise period of time. I think it’s for the preceding 6 hours but could be 3 hours. Either way, it only showed a high of 32’C today, and widely lower than that. About 6 degrees off across the board.

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