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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 hours ago, Zak M said:

    Disappointing? Are we looking at the same model?! 🤪

    I understand that you live in Northern Ireland but a few days of hot weather can't be that bad surely?! Unless you expect everything to be 2018-esque!

    A couple of days of warm weather would be great never mind hot.

    The "plume" for tomorrow lasts about 6 hours over here.

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    I just watched the Beeb Forecast now saying 35c possible . Also said uncertainty about rain moving in on Monday , well the icon is out .  Not much rain here . Gfs does have this feature more pronounced.

    6D9E932D-E4FF-4975-83F1-D0DB9317B233.png

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    What did people expect though? A 3 week heatwave? That ain't gona happen this summer.

    Erm. Is a week of dry warm weather out of 13 weeks of Summer too much to ask?

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    A couple of days of warm weather would be great never mind hot.

    The "plume" for tomorrow lasts about 6 hours over here.

    Yes I’ve seen that , Very unfortunate for you in NI hopefully next week is better for you guys , I too wasn’t to chuffed with the ecm as amazingly other models like the GFS and gem had less heat but more widespread conditions and potentially for longer , let’s see what tonight’s and more especially tomorrow’s runs bring .

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    28 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    What did people expect though? A 3 week heatwave? That ain't gona happen this summer.

    Wanna bet? Lots of support coming through the models that this August is going to be the best since 2003. I have a feeling that tomorrow is just the opening credits!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

    UK version MWB😍

     

    and the gfs/p going for 36c but i suspect a notch or two on those values,can we squeeze 38c?

     

    Would be remarkable to record 38C (100f) two years on the trot, especially after 17 years since 10th August 2003.  However, it wouldn't surprise me if somewhere hits that temperature tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    GEFs this morning

    gens-21-1-144.png   gens-21-1-192.png   gens-21-1-240.png

    The operational whilst settled, again doesn't bring the heat north as it is messier with the Atlantic trough, however the general ensembles are in line with the GEM op, and possibly the UKMO at day 6 shown below.

    UW144-21.GIF?31-07

    The GEM yet again delivers a set up where the mid-thirties will be reached by next weekend.

    As for today, Arpege still going for a high of 36C, which is possible anywhere from London northwards into the East Midlands. North Kent I would also put a punt on for high temperatures due to a lack of sea track and tapping the heat directly from France. Also it appears that any cloud and showers will arrive late afternoon at the earliest now.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    7 hours ago, Don said:

    Would be remarkable to record 38C (100f) two years on the trot, especially after 17 years since 10th August 2003.  However, it wouldn't surprise me if somewhere hits that temperature tomorrow.

    I think the previous 100F (prior to 2003) was way back in 1911?🤔

    Anywho, today's GFS 00Z is something of a goodie -- two or three weeks' fine weather might, at last, be on the cards::yahoo:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And, there's one mighty fine stonker in those ens... @JON SNOW; and the GFS 00Z, 2m, op is a cold outlier!:oldlaugh:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    And now for the farm... Holy moly guacamole! 🔥 :shok: Enjoy your day, folks!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    In the gambling business, they often say there’s nothing sweeter than a repeater....well next Friday/weekend looks like we’re getting furnace heat once again!

    A2E619D1-1123-4934-B7C0-66CFE6190FC4.thumb.png.0443a52e42a1daa9744f1e3ac671a91a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    22 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    A much better overnight from the ECMWF,  with the Atlantic held at bay.

    Yes EC is a very nice run,it maybe an outlier though.

    All eyes on Exeter later because they have not bought into it,yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes EC is a very nice run,it maybe an outlier though.

    All eyes on Exeter later because they have not bought into it,yet.

    GFS isn’t on board yet. I see it as settled and warm later next week but not the blow torch that is the ECM  

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The ECM 0z ensemble mean is gob smacklingly amazing, not just for today!..holy cow!:shok:🔥...could squeeze 36c 97f in the SE today..summer fights back!!😉

     

    C441D987-4B44-4E8E-B564-F35830FE0D71.thumb.gif.429e551f0c268eff6df52cf98457d464.gifC4F45659-4CA3-4F3B-8C89-3E10F539E3EA.thumb.gif.70f9503e3ab3d62e9909da5a81b528b6.gif3132B13A-A42F-448B-A801-D0E5DCB4AE8C.thumb.gif.536d99fc2b999b1bdee473e6123cea8e.gif48E6EB21-B081-4920-AA97-D875BB200A8B.thumb.gif.b5e5b547ba79044834fd6d6c9d4dea13.gif1FABD94D-617A-402E-9349-B47AF08C27A3.thumb.gif.6d7b37d7655c994427cf55853b992801.gifF145EC16-CA0B-40A9-8EBA-02E87BC3D639.thumb.gif.53be9ebade84adc6d41b2788cea25b63.gif

     

     

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    I think the previous 100F (prior to 2003) was way back in 1911?🤔

     

    I  do not believe 100f had been officially recorded anywhere in the UK prior to August 2003.  The official record up to that point was 37.3C in Cheltenham August 1990.

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    15 minutes ago, Don said:

    I  do not believe 100f had been officially recorded anywhere in the UK prior to August 2003.  The official record up to that point was 37.3C in Cheltenham August 1990.

    I think the 1991 figure was 37.1c at Cheltenham.

     

    2003 was the first time the UK broke 100f.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes EC is a very nice run,it maybe an outlier though.

    All eyes on Exeter later because they have not bought into it,yet.

    Met office have had a shocker this year with their 30 day forecasts. Warm and settled weather has been 2 weeks away for 3 months now according to them.

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Already 33c at Heathrow at 11am could the Arpege be right about its 37c hope the cloud stays away until after peak heating time 

    Screenshot_20200731-112046_Samsung Internet.jpg

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