Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - into July 2020


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Navgem , Hold your head in shame . I’m withdrawing my unofficial sponsorship until it shapes up again 😂.

    7EB8CA6E-981C-42C1-B0CA-6059AA960B36.png

    ADE6C170-FF9F-45B8-848C-B010156A9190.gif

    Edited by Mark wheeler
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.7k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z ECM @192

    ECM1-192.gif

    Bingo! Judging by the previous two frames, it looks like the low is stalling in the Atlantic again, meaning that it should be a couple of days longer than this weeks plume. It has the 18c isotherm on the south coast too.

    Edited by Zak M
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    7 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Like today MWB wasn’t 28c the top temperature predicted but it got close to 30c ?

    ECM raw maximum temp for today was 25C! Arpege flittered with 27/28C over the past 48 hours. AROME nailed it as usual, showing the 28/29C color band. 

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    Wow that is some serious heat heading our way on the ECM

    2B831000-C719-42E0-976E-EE7CF6AF78A4.jpeg

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    @216

    1827841211_ECM1-216(1).thumb.gif.69d7ff7f8bc8544ec80d8a362f445966.gif   500695820_ECM0-216(1).thumb.gif.76c481bbadb8c55d89d5daf707f0c744.gif

    850hpa temps really starting to ascend for the south! Could potentially be some cracking storms too.

    Edited by Zak M
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    To much energy to sustain the southerly flow in the Atlantic but time for that to change. 

    6488C946-0FDB-421A-904C-4231CF004AB0.png

    Edited by seabreeze86
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    11 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    @240

    1827841211_ECM1-216(1).thumb.gif.69d7ff7f8bc8544ec80d8a362f445966.gif   500695820_ECM0-216(1).thumb.gif.76c481bbadb8c55d89d5daf707f0c744.gif

    850hpa temps really starting to ascend for the south! Could potentially be some cracking storms too.

    Hi Zak this is the ecm @240 you posted the 218hrs 👍

    2CB22D17-0F54-4F5F-A093-12F90FBBD84A.gif

    74B69CDD-9461-4561-A47D-D6CF77C94763.gif
     

    Being picky I’d take the gem please as in Devon and come back Monday so Sunday not so good 😊.

    Edited by Mark wheeler
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    22 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    @216

    1827841211_ECM1-216(1).thumb.gif.69d7ff7f8bc8544ec80d8a362f445966.gif   500695820_ECM0-216(1).thumb.gif.76c481bbadb8c55d89d5daf707f0c744.gif

    850hpa temps really starting to ascend for the south! Could potentially be some cracking storms too.

    ECM raw temps suggest 36-37C could be reached next Saturday. 

    The models have an insatiable appetite for a height rise through Europe south to north for next weekend! 

    I'm still a bit cautious as I know the models can sometimes misread the strength of the Atlantic until within T144, and plumes can entirely miss with just a little nudge (as well be the case for the far west tomorrow). Mind you, a stronger trough in the Atlantic may only serve to pump up to heat more, of course! 

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    The ECM is disappointing. A couple of ridge days then the Atlantic back in again.

    Hopefully a big zonal outlier.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    The ECM is disappointing. A couple of ridge days then the Atlantic back in again.

    Hopefully a big zonal outlier.

    Disappointing? Are we looking at the same model?! 🤪

    I understand that you live in Northern Ireland but a few days of hot weather can't be that bad surely?! Unless you expect everything to be 2018-esque!

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    The ECM is disappointing. A couple of ridge days then the Atlantic back in again.

    Hopefully a big zonal outlier.

    I’m glad I checked the charts after reading this. 😵

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    The ECM is disappointing. A couple of ridge days then the Atlantic back in again.

    Hopefully a big zonal outlier.

    It's not zonal at all? We get another plume at the end of next week.

    Are you sure you looked at today's 12z? If so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt 😄 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    the mobility we have seen for many weeks remains but with more amplitude in the pattern - hence we see real  plumes separated by a less hot spells rather than the flatter ridge/trough we have become used to. - how long this more amplified pattern lasts is the question .......

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    4 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    U.K. chart for 4pm

    image.thumb.png.cc206c36a06e4fbaf14f8c0dd8c8b20c.png

    The thing that has surprised me is how much the temperatures have upgraded north of London over the past 48 hours. 35/36c possible up along the A1/M1 corridor as far north as Nottingham. So the heat could be quite widespread.

    Was the highest max today only 28 degrees, would be a rare thing to shoot from 28 max to 35/36 in a day. My guess is a max of 34 degrees, the cold front is edging in quicker than perhaps anticipated and might bring some cloud ahead of it, preventing very high maxima.

    Back to the models, back to atlantic airstream over the weekend, showers about, many spots should see some decent sunny dry weather with temps around seasonal average. Into next week, mmm a bit messy and uncertain but looking rather unsettled , with rain or showers for many, and temps average at best still. 

    As we move through the week, the models showing a ridge development again, a plume event, not quite on the same scale as we have now, but perhaps something more sustained with the trough held back further west allowing heights to ridge into Scandinavia - it will be a stand off between the ridge and the trough - lots of oomph in the atlantic at present, so eventual outcome will no doubt be the trough invading, but before then we might see a few very warm dry sunny days - something we have had little of so far this summer.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    4 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

    ARPEGE now up to 37C in the SE tomorrow. A top 5 all-time maximum within reach?

    arpege-31-30-1.png?30-16

    (UK view not available until later)

    UK version MWB😍

    arpegeuk-31-30-0.thumb.png.1af9734b3a2982ffcef10a85e5d0e333.png

    and the gfs/p going for 36c but i suspect a notch or two on those values,can we squeeze 38c?

    EeMvze_WoAEEdCS.thumb.png.1fecf9bba279342b906dd74685f77f04.png

     

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    25 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    All right, I know I shouldn't do this, but I'm feeling a bit giddy with all these bonkers charts tonight - I just wondered if anyone had ever seen a run like P1 on the GEFS? 2003 RIP if this happens:

    gens-1-0-216.png

    gens-1-0-264.png

    gens-1-0-300.png

    gens-1-0-324.png

    Good job it’s after 9pm....that’s seriously x rated!!

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

    @damianslaw the Met Office have published today's high as 30C in London, which was an astonishing under-read on the forecast values even yesterday across all models. Which gives credence to the notion of 35C, 36C (maybe 37C?) tomorrow. 

    Yep and it hasn’t been highlighted yet , probably because of tomorrow’s heat but that means we now have May , June and July hitting 30c with hopefully now August to quickly follow next week .

     

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

    The ECM is disappointing. A couple of ridge days then the Atlantic back in again.

    Hopefully a big zonal outlier.

    What did people expect though? A 3 week heatwave? That ain't gona happen this summer.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...