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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    On 27/07/2020 at 09:41, mushymanrob said:

    There are very weak signs though, on the 8-14 day chart that theres is a slight Eastward progress of the AZH with slight ridging over Iberia?

    Ok, im clutching at straws, but that very slight ridging may build on subsequent runs and at least back the contour lines to a warmer southwesterly towards mid month?.. That might re-enforce a SE/NW divide but conditions shouldnt be too bad.
     

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    On 27/07/2020 at 09:48, johnholmes said:

    As you say mushy, very slight, just 30 DM, IF it starts to increase and gets to about 90DM then it is worth keeping a close eye on.

    I should have added if the 90DM was there for a couple of days and also started to show on the 6-10 then it would be pointing about 60:40 to this occurring

    Thinking these developments are favouring a "better" August by the look of it, and is in line with what Tamara has been saying ?. IMHO they certainly lend support to the current ops although currently they retain a moderate SW upper flow , so no lengthy heatwave nor high pressure sitting over the UK for long, but above average conditions? with plenty of warmth, not much frontal rain (plumes may bring thundery spells) with the old NW/SE bias.

    Edit, i posted this before i read Johns update 3 hours ago..
     

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    Edited by mushymanrob
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Lots of members for Manchester are flirting with uppers of 16 to 22C

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    06z AROME not downgrading 37°C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    The end of This afternoons Navgem 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    Another increase on the temperatures with 33C now shown in the SE and 28C up here again adding a degree or two onto that 🔥 still need more runs to get a confident idea about storms, wrf nmm 2km which I would usually use over the 0.05 version didn’t show much but it’s only just within range so see what next few runs show but the 0.05 has been consistently showing storms breaking out across northern parts of England and up here, also the NetWx-MR Has same idea so that’s what I’m leaning toward ATM, 18376599-B65E-49A3-B87C-43357256A83F.thumb.png.3e94cb579722bd959a4e564abe17af8d.png97E8895B-C277-4F6F-A7DC-818AB2253CED.thumb.png.738412e9cc0e3808aff3b7fc1b3464a2.png5F21A724-0682-42F3-B0E3-080F508A873D.thumb.png.6d29f1dd37f45af418fdb1783d9ad458.pngACBBE644-9CC4-4811-A12B-8E4AFA121F32.thumb.png.149b82ea319afe4e7ecaa352c43189ab.png0E969BDE-CB22-4C7A-96AC-53E1FDC23589.thumb.png.1d4c733b1a32c3d1a939a7dba08f8c0a.pngD5464361-2729-4C25-AA62-BC3D8F6FBC5F.thumb.png.bf96d49efb662a9e2ee5f137d9f17b01.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Some excellent runs this morning with EC and GFS keen to introduce another southerly flow next weekend.

    I would still exercise a little caution as Exeter not on board at this juncture..

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    image.thumb.png.354ff133f8e9c84980770a4eb8767021.png AugustPhase3gt1500mb.gif

    The MJO suddenly took off eastward with some vigour in the past few days - flying in the face of much of the modelling.

    Lagged response to the amplified crossing of phase 3 lends some support for a Scandinavian high development next week, such as GFS has been exploring.

    Not to be taken at face value of course, but this does give some cause for skepticism of any model guidance maintaining a generally westerly regime for the UK later next week. Not a reason to rule such out by any means, but suggestive that there should be at least some break with some continental flow occurring. This is also coherent with a mid-summer response to the sharp climb in AAM toward near-neutral.

    For what it's worth, continued propagation of the MJO through phases 4 to 5 offers mixed signals - (much?) cooler, then (a lot?) warmer but perhaps unstable.

    AugustPhase4gt1500mb.gif AugustPhase5gt1500mb.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
    2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    Another increase on the temperatures with 33C now shown in the SE and 28C up here again adding a degree or two onto that 🔥 still need more runs to get a confident idea about storms, wrf nmm 2km which I would usually use over the 0.05 version didn’t show much but it’s only just within range so see what next few runs show but the 0.05 has been consistently showing storms breaking out across northern parts of England and up here, also the NetWx-MR Has same idea so that’s what I’m leaning toward ATM, 18376599-B65E-49A3-B87C-43357256A83F.thumb.png.3e94cb579722bd959a4e564abe17af8d.png97E8895B-C277-4F6F-A7DC-818AB2253CED.thumb.png.738412e9cc0e3808aff3b7fc1b3464a2.png5F21A724-0682-42F3-B0E3-080F508A873D.thumb.png.6d29f1dd37f45af418fdb1783d9ad458.pngACBBE644-9CC4-4811-A12B-8E4AFA121F32.thumb.png.149b82ea319afe4e7ecaa352c43189ab.png0E969BDE-CB22-4C7A-96AC-53E1FDC23589.thumb.png.1d4c733b1a32c3d1a939a7dba08f8c0a.pngD5464361-2729-4C25-AA62-BC3D8F6FBC5F.thumb.png.bf96d49efb662a9e2ee5f137d9f17b01.png

    And storms moving into the SE to.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
    17 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

    And storms moving into the SE to.

    I'm a bit wary the further south u go as looks like a high amount of capping will be in place. 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    23 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    I'm a bit wary the further south u go as looks like a high amount of capping will be in place. 

    Wouldn’t capping Just prevent Home grown storms? Won’t prevent elevated storms spreading up from France in the evening?

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    ARPEGE now up to 37C in the SE tomorrow. A top 5 all-time maximum within reach?

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    (UK view not available until later)

    U.K. chart for 4pm

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    The thing that has surprised me is how much the temperatures have upgraded north of London over the past 48 hours. 35/36c possible up along the A1/M1 corridor as far north as Nottingham. So the heat could be quite widespread.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
    Just now, Tim Bland said:

    Wouldn’t capping Just prevent Home grown storms? Won’t prevent elevated storms spreading up from France in the evening?

    I think the main threat across the uk is from a trough and the winds converging, as always the radar and sat watching will be the best bet to see what’s developing 🌩 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    AROME 12z still at it with 37°C near Whitstable.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield

    Better GFS 12z with a stronger and more sustained switch to a high pressure dominated outlook. Very warm at times too with hot air just a waft away 😎

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Beauutifulllll :clapping:

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    ECM 12Z now delays the cloud a couple more hours and consequently has raw 33C near Bedford - add the usual 2-3C degrees (a 4C increase on raw temps isn't unknown of course), and we have another model to back up a prediction of 35-36C tomorrow. 

     

    My home town having one of the highest temperatures in the UK?

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    ECM 12Z now delays the cloud a couple more hours and consequently has raw 33C near Bedford - add the usual 2-3C degrees (a 4C increase on raw temps isn't unknown of course), and we have another model to back up a prediction of 35-36C tomorrow. 

     

    Like today MWB wasn’t 28c the top temperature predicted but it got close to 30c ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Probably the best GFS run of the summer, the Ops run is in the bottom few ensembles or a 'cool' outlier pretty much from the 5th the 12th mean 850s are above 15C now for 3 days down on the south coast this is backed up by an el schorchio GEM taken temps into the mid 30's. Tomorrow could just be the warm up, excuse the pun.....

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