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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    I'll do an update on the 500 mb anomaly charts tomorrow as there does appear to be a shift developing.

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    20 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Hi MWB , I’m going to ask probably a silly question to you and others but where do you find the graph for where the operational sits within the ensembles , I’ve looked where I think it might be but can’t seem to find it ? I’d appreciate the help .

    Please note the chart I’ve posted is yesterday’s run . 
     

    Kind Regards 

    Mark

    0F4651E9-15CF-40E6-9116-5A85EF5E9297.png

    Here it is:

    https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres

     

    This is another one with more information, you can also search other UK cities

    ensemble-euro.png
    WEATHER.US

    London, England, United Kingdom - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    Not much talk of the GFS tonight which shows the heat all but gone by Saturday, and back into a westerly regime next week. However chances of a warm up again towards the end of next week, but perhaps not as hot as this Friday. (Appreciate the ECM is more favourable if you like hot weather, but the GFS doesn’t want to know about those extremes at the moment). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z JMA - el scorchio!!

    J204-21.thumb.gif.3afd5584ba56fa200a6bdf1f26591c2a.gif   J216-7.thumb.gif.47a9b7a79f966868892f7f3ba1599b12.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    The Aperge still going for 36’C to the west of London tomorrow. The Arome is showing similar.

    All things considered though, I will take a punt at a maximum of 34-35’C.

    48CE7F9F-3BBD-4125-88A4-5370589DFD31.jpeg

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    GEFs

    gens-21-1-144.png   gens-21-1-192.png   gens-21-1-240.png

    Tie this in with the operational outputs and last nights ECM suite, you have to admit there is a strong trend towards an amplified ridge building during the second half of next week over Europe with the UK seemingly in a good position to benefit is fine and potentially hot weather is your thing.

    Just for fun the GEM

    gem-0-144.png?00   gem-0-192.png?00   gem-0-240.png?00

    The real difference potentially here compared to the last couple of months is the longwave pattern is shifting towards the chance of a proper heatwave developing instead of a brief plume (June did however last four days before breaking down mind you).

    As for tomorrow, Arpege still suggesting a high of 36C close to London (Still feels a little too high), however the metoffice are now suggesting 33C for up here in Peterborough so maybe the mid-thirties is possible....

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

    The Aperge still going for 36’C to the west of London tomorrow. The Arome is showing similar.

    All things considered though, I will take a punt at a maximum of 34-35’C.

    48CE7F9F-3BBD-4125-88A4-5370589DFD31.jpeg

    I always feel the ARPEGE and AROME are the "go to" models for temperatures inside T48 - in which case I think 36C is on. But it depends on how quickly cloud moves in from the south. The ARPEGE has it moving in by 3pm, the AROME is an hour later (and looks slightly hotter, maybe 37C). Of course if they are both wrong and cloud moves in earlier still, knock the temps back down a bit. (Edit: the ECM has broken cloud approaching London by 1pm and consequently looks more like a 33C or 34C)

     

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    GFS PTB 2 Smashes the UK 850 record with +25c Uppers ...

    Havent seen many runs like that before...

    68EEF54B-69C6-4021-BB7F-9B1C4452D3EA.thumb.png.c4e563ead9ffc74c4eb61615c5acf082.pngAAFDAEC1-C6BD-4027-96A6-1F24D97D43ED.thumb.png.797266d7737dfb0a8ad023d17c2e061f.png

    Just been marvelling at that run myself. GFS shows 2m temps of 33-37C widely for a few days. Given it underestimates max temps you'd have to say 40C would be achievable in such an extreme set up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    52 minutes ago, Kid Thunder said:

    Just been marvelling at that run myself. GFS shows 2m temps of 33-37C widely for a few days. Given it underestimates max temps you'd have to say 40C would be achievable in such an extreme set up.

    I would have thought 40c would be a possibility under such a set up.

    But this is likely to go the same way as a -20c run we see in winter! A watered down version likely, maybe similar to the setup tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    ECM - Whilst clearly a little flatter than yesterday still clearly shows the establishment of heights over most of Europe into week 2 with an Atlantic trough in place.

    image.thumb.gif.a55b81d7d0bd5ad9cc0f56cfbd7537b7.gifimage.thumb.gif.7c5cd143e0226ca2859af31ef7979191.gif   
     

    As long as the trend remains, there is certainly a good chance of conditions turning very warm or hot by the end of next week, a low but statistically significant chance of something more substantial.
     

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Thursday 30 June

    Ec and gfs; ec continues with its idea of modest height rises coupled with ridging fro Iberia/western Europe into the se half of the uk, less so for the nw with the main trough around 30W; gfs does not really show this trough position/shape and has no ridging, and its very limited height rises are not directed towards the uk area although the very weak ridging from Africa into central Europe are a change from previous days?

    Noaa has very modest height rises but no sign of any ridging and the trough at about 30 W is a rounded one, not like the ec version, so on the 6-10 outlook the jury is still out in my view. Its 8-14 chart is very similar, so overall no clear suggestion of marked heating up although the 500 flow is certainly more s of west than for some time. It is still a fairly strong flow so any idea of a ridge developing, other than the odd day here and there, seems not to be supported on the anomaly charts just yet.

    The 12z ec-gfs yesterday did show, I think, gfs also with some ridging, but not this morning.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

     

     

    image.png

    Edited by johnholmes
    changing wording re gfs
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Both AROME and ARPEGE rapidly sweep the heat through during the day tomorrow with increased cloud cover, in fact I'm sure ARPEGE is contradicting itself and hasn't got a good handle on tomorrow. By early afternoon it has is raining from Birmingham to the south coast and across to east London, while I appreciate its showery activity the suns almost gone by 1/2pm for the London area and even earlier for areas south and west of London. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Both AROME and ARPEGE rapidly sweep the heat through during the day tomorrow with increased cloud cover, in fact I'm sure ARPEGE is contradicting itself and hasn't got a good handle on tomorrow. By early afternoon it has is raining from Birmingham to the south coast and across to east London, while I appreciate its showery activity the suns almost gone by 1/2pm for the London area and even earlier for areas south and west of London. 

     

    Which is totally at odds with the BBC and Meto forecasts which show full sun until late afternoon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    Just now, Djdazzle said:

    Which is totally at odds with the BBC and Meto forecasts which show full sun until late afternoon.

    Arpege seems to be on its own a bit with the extent of the showery activity hence my comment about it not having a good handle on tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    A wee bit of spread in them thar GFS 00Z 850 hPa ens::shok:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    Wouldn't it be interesting, were a hurricane-remnant to waft 25C uppers in our direction... if only far a day or two?:help::oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    10 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    A wee bit of spread in them thar GFS 00Z 850 hPa ens::shok:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    Wouldn't it be interesting, were a hurricane-remnant to waft 25C uppers in our direction... if only far a day or two?:help::oldlaugh:

    We are likely to see ex-Isaias heading out into the mid Atlantic through next week:

    405C75F6-9224-466E-AEDF-85302674B53A.thumb.png.55600360e38f50f7646f49a8e6d4bc61.png

    You can see it here as the neat little circular low off the eastern seaboard. Likely to play havoc with forecasts as usual, be wary of this as usual.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    47 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Both AROME and ARPEGE rapidly sweep the heat through during the day tomorrow with increased cloud cover, in fact I'm sure ARPEGE is contradicting itself and hasn't got a good handle on tomorrow. By early afternoon it has is raining from Birmingham to the south coast and across to east London, while I appreciate its showery activity the suns almost gone by 1/2pm for the London area and even earlier for areas south and west of London. 

     

    Cloud base will be extremely high so less interference with insolation I suspect

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    44 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    We are likely to see ex-Isaias heading out into the mid Atlantic through next week:

    405C75F6-9224-466E-AEDF-85302674B53A.thumb.png.55600360e38f50f7646f49a8e6d4bc61.png

    You can see it here as the neat little circular low off the eastern seaboard. Likely to play havoc with forecasts as usual, be wary of this as usual.

    I'm thinking/hoping that will phase with the low out west and help hold it there longer to bring a continental source for us late next week/weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    Just now, joggs said:

    I'm thinking/hoping that will phase with the low out west and help hold it there longer to bring a continental source for us late next week/weekend.

    Tbh..I think that's the [email protected] of continental source based heat after a 3\4 day cool off. And tbh...next weekend could surpass what we have now..and indeed tomorrow..imo of course but I'll descript things better later today....

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    On ‎29‎/‎07‎/‎2020 at 10:59, MattStoke said:

    Obviously we cannot see what the Met Office's internal computer model data is showing but their automated forecasts for Northolt and Heathrow are showing 34'C and 35'C respectively for Friday. That's an increase of 1'C for both locations since yesterday.

    Met Office automated forecasts now up to 35'C for Northolt and 36'C for Heathrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff

    Looks like some mighty fine summer weather could be a possibility after the first week of August.  I don't think anyone could complain with a chart like this?

    30_07_2020.png

    Edited by Earthshine
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    6 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

    Looks like some mighty fine summer weather could be a possibility after the first week of August.  I don't think anyone could complain with a chart like this?

    30_07_2020.png

    GFS 6z is warm and dry too.

    Lets hope we've seen the back of this horrendous Summer..

     

    image.thumb.png.325eeba60e7c9f0491d3a7147924fc59.png

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