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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    GEM and ICON do too; GFS not quite so far north.

    Date record of 33.9C looks like going for sure.

    Funny how uppers are almost always lower on the GFS. You wouldn't think there would be much variation this close to Friday but there is quite a big difference still between GFS and the others.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Is the ECM alright?! :cc_confused:

    ECM1-192 (4).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    ECM1-240.thumb.gif.ecb4bcaceaa11d23a6087f3b930c395e.gif   ECM0-240.thumb.gif.74511f86da4d603743306e0a03885967.gif

    Has to be an outlier surely - too good to be true.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

    Sort of came out of nowhere, but to be fair this is what the ensembles have been broadly saying in the past 24 hours. 

    Regarding Friday this week, ecm raw temps gives several spots as 32C now, add the usual 2-3C uplift and potential is there for 34/35C, just like ARPEGE. 

    It’s sort of appeared out of nowhere - but as @Tamara says, it shouldn’t be too surprising given the shuffling of the cards globally. Always takes the models some time to pick this change up (signals lead the models etc). Not that I’m complaining - we’ve suffered enough this summer. A decent August will somewhat make up for the poor June and July.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton

    If bookies were taking bets on what week will be the best of summer I would bet on 2nd week of august right now 😀👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    32 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    ECM1-240.thumb.gif.ecb4bcaceaa11d23a6087f3b930c395e.gif   ECM0-240.thumb.gif.74511f86da4d603743306e0a03885967.gif

    Has to be an outlier surely - too good to be true.

    Defo an outlier as it brings the risk of a hot weekend...😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    I have just had a W.T.F moment looking at the ecm...

    ECM1-240.thumb.gif.b0dfc9e6cf066abc45fdca546ce08956.gifECM0-240.thumb.gif.4105496b8a61d5acd466dd13eae66cae.gifECM101-240.thumb.gif.c4fa389254df8d66890529906437f336.gif

    although the temps won't be as high as this Friday,there could be more wiggle room to match that in ten days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    If anyone wanted to see all the ecm ensembles at T216, I've posted a link to the control run here

    complete_model_modez_2020072912_222_18_3
    WEATHER.US

    ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 08/07/2020, 01:00pm of parameter "Temperature, 850hPa", model...

     

    Select "switch members" to get through the 51 members - I gave up counting how many bring the 18C uppers line over the UK either next Friday or Saturday, must be more than half. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    8-10 day 500mb mean:

    ECM to the left, GFS to the right

    test8.thumb.gif.f01745e32fd72c8262bf7e123a59eedc.gif

    I think it's clear who wins this. ECM has the low wafting up some warm air from the continent, as the op showed. GFS doesn't really have any of it, but I reckon it will start trending towards what the ECM is showing shortly.

    Edited by Zak M
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  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    41 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    If anyone wanted to see all the ecm ensembles at T216, I've posted a link to the control run here

    complete_model_modez_2020072912_222_18_3
    WEATHER.US

    ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 08/07/2020, 01:00pm of parameter "Temperature, 850hPa", model...

     

    Select "switch members" to get through the 51 members - I gave up counting how many bring the 18C uppers line over the UK either next Friday or Saturday, must be more than half. 

    Hi MWB , I’m going to ask probably a silly question to you and others but where do you find the graph for where the operational sits within the ensembles , I’ve looked where I think it might be but can’t seem to find it ? I’d appreciate the help .

    Please note the chart I’ve posted is yesterday’s run . 
     

    Kind Regards 

    Mark

    0F4651E9-15CF-40E6-9116-5A85EF5E9297.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    2 hours ago, clark3r said:

    If bookies were taking bets on what week will be the best of summer I would bet on 2nd week of august right now 😀👍

    Not exactly a lofty accolade though is it...

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