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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    25 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    A glimmer on hope and possibly settling down again after next week as we go into August 

    CPC,EPS and the ec46 gif courtesy of Matt Hugo.

    814day_03.thumb.gif.72fd08e471c9476818076881b31a3da0.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.145b19159daec05135b580d311ef6b56.png

     

    i did say last night that there might be a second surge of the Azores hp cell coming to visit,i felt it in my bones:whistling:😉

    enjoy the rest of the week guys and especially Friday,it looks a scorchio now.

    I mentioned this in my EC updates earlier.. I beat you to it Matt Hugo.. Only joking mate your a top bloke 😉

    .. 

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, MATT☀️ said:

    I mentioned this in my EC updates earlier.. I beat you to it Matt Hugo.. Only joking mate your a top bloke 😉

    .. 

    Yes you did and i hope it comes to fruition😉

     a few days ago the models where showing a trough dominated pattern from the NW,so fickle this model watching is and how quick it can change but in the meantime we have a plume at the end of the week and hopefully a breakdown to some beefy storms to boot too so plenty to talk about i would say and hopefully another plume after next week,this summer could end on a high note(excuse the pun)🙂

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Well Gfs 18z is again positive later on . 

    DD049F14-67FA-435D-93FA-CAA81B448AEE.png

    F2CE2EBB-71A4-475F-8493-ED5116B360B1.png
    Ps - I’m especially intrigued with the charts at the moment as I’m off to Devon on the 3rd so really need at least some decent weather on my 1 weeks hols .

    And the Beeb have upped the temperature by a degree . 

    DA89346C-4760-4429-8009-719E03F34405.jpeg

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    High pressure moving in again later on according to this mornings GFS .

    AAFB7B81-DE4A-40D8-BB3E-0C9D9FEA3B46.png
    meanwhile Aprege had downgraded the heat this morning with a max now showing at 34c 

    BF542DAB-C547-49CE-9DFC-CC30828FBAE6.png

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
    1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:

    High pressure moving in again later on according to this mornings GFS .

    AAFB7B81-DE4A-40D8-BB3E-0C9D9FEA3B46.png
    meanwhile Aprege had downgraded the heat this morning with a max now showing at 34c 

    BF542DAB-C547-49CE-9DFC-CC30828FBAE6.png

    I understand what you are saying,but how can 34c be a downgrade that is very hot for the UK.

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    29 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    Good runs this morning, with the midweek unsettled spell now looking fairly brief.

    The ECM days 8-10 have a lot of promise (no change there then!). *IF* this came to fruition it would usher in a very warm and potentially protracted spell of summer weather for most!

    image.thumb.png.ff0f66b673d53babb1aa7bd4c5486e0f.pngimage.thumb.png.2102b2b588e6f600b52d8072dcfb2d16.pngimage.thumb.png.01186790a0a08f800d650159a2823533.png   

    GFS at 240 is very much on the same page

    image.thumb.png.4386387520512e83ee312ea18a0f91d0.png

      The warming trend is clear to see on the ECM and GEFS 

    image.thumb.png.efc7f345cc1accc4b52866a3160e5c03.pngimage.thumb.png.cd70cdeef215ebdaa1ad0e4987fd7265.png  

    As always, at this range caution has to be exercised, hopefully we'll see a bit of consistency over the next few runs?  But as the great Ian Drury once said, reason to be cheerful!

    About 40% of ECM ensemble members have very warm air pushing up from the south by D10 on this morning's run. About 10% of runs would be similar to this coming Friday.

    It's a growing trend, but I'm wary of the tendency of the ECM to increase the level of Atlantic activity between D6 and D8 and I think the models are in such a position where a slight collapse will shunt the heat away from the UK entirely. So it's a "watch" situation for now 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Obviously we cannot see what the Met Office's internal computer model data is showing but their automated forecasts for Northolt and Heathrow are showing 34'C and 35'C respectively for Friday. That's an increase of 1'C for both locations since yesterday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

    I understand what you are saying,but how can 34c be a downgrade that is very hot for the UK.

    C.S

    Yep still scorchio so no actual downgrade , I was only alluding to the temps it predicted yesterday at 36c I think . 😀

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    2 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

    High pressure moving in again later on according to this mornings GFS .

    AAFB7B81-DE4A-40D8-BB3E-0C9D9FEA3B46.png
    meanwhile Aprege had downgraded the heat this morning with a max now showing at 34c 

    BF542DAB-C547-49CE-9DFC-CC30828FBAE6.png

    This also backs the same sort of temps on the BBC could we be reaching a consensus on a max of 34c? The Navgem still trying to blow its own trumpet with the +20c reaching up to Lincolnshire again😂1417900311_Screenshot_20200729-105313_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.c62d7f858f5074520450b734456d8d8c.jpg1752854747_Screenshot_20200729-103146_BBCWeather.thumb.jpg.5e90a85dbb552a13b4191027b8ccf8a7.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 06Z is looking good, at T+255: plenty of warm sunshine and nowt too hot::oldgood:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Although possible future developments over the near Continent might send some unpleasant heat our way, eventually...?:unsure2:

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    47 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    I note, if zoomed in, the ARPEGE is back up to 36C for London on the latest 06Z chart. Bear in mind we are now within T60!

    arpege-31-60-1.png?29-12

    Is that a 34 i see in the midlands🔥🥴

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

    I note, if zoomed in, the ARPEGE is back up to 36C for London on the latest 06Z chart. Bear in mind we are now within T60!

    arpege-31-60-1.png?29-12

    Nothing would surprise me these days in terms of maximum temperatures, even after a relatively cool period!

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