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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Location: West Midlands
    2 hours ago, Gordon Webb said:

    Wasn't Aware 36 hours constitutes a few days

    Yes just 36 hours of hot uppers from 12Z Thu to 00Z Saturday for most, very brief really then back to near normal from Saturday. 

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    5 minutes ago, Don said:

    July 2020 is looking like a back to front July 2015!

    Northolt 😂😂.

     

    GFS at the peak of the heat .

    2392D69A-64CC-44D2-9A6C-4AC38BC54EB7.png

    223F05C1-1619-4487-8F8D-AFCDAB92D633.png
     

    UKMO a little hotter 🔥

    752C6B3B-94C9-471D-A28C-0E1419339CB2.gif

    8762B31B-7424-4E77-B6CA-9D1A2385069F.gif

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    5 minutes ago, Eugene said:

    Yes just 36 hours of hot uppers from 12Z Thu to 00Z Saturday for most, very brief really then back to near normal from Saturday. 

    Saturday is no longer more than average for 95+% of UK, the 10C 850 Isotherm clears the east coast rapidly by midday on both the GFS & ICON, only parts Kent, Norfolk & Suffolk look like getting to 25C, hardly warm for the 1st August.   

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    Saturday is no longer more than average for 95+% of UK, the 10C 850 Isotherm clears the east coast rapidly by midday on both the GFS & ICON, only parts Kent, Norfolk & Suffolk look like getting to 25C, hardly warm for the 1st August.   

    I suspect it will still reach 27C or so with the residual warmth from the previous night, which may counteract the falling away of the upper air temps.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    I suspect it will still reach 27C or so with the residual warmth from the previous night, which may counteract the falling away of the upper air temps.

    Maybe but it'll be in the extreme east anywhere west of a line Cambridge down to London will struggle to get above 23/24C - Also in these situations the models do a terrible job in predicting cloud the day after a plume exits. Back in June most places in the west struggle to get above 20C on the Friday while the east was above 30C, forecast for Bournemouth was 27C, only just made 21C. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Aprege a couple of 35c there .

    CBC082F0-A97A-4EA3-BC2F-4701BA91B10A.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    20c isotherm in place for the SE on the 12z ECM

    @72

    ECM0-72.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Ecm 192 Hrs ,

    90C652AC-7761-4C63-8DA6-06DC6B125820.gif
     

    And then ....Round 2 anyone ?

    6C6D8974-FD54-407C-A05A-16E8D682DF2B.gif

    01751874-8DF2-43DC-9CE7-BDC9B88136EF.gif

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    And finally . I’d take this run thanks or the GFS I’m not that picky honest 😀

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    69B7FBC3-4C54-4219-9B6F-129F6EE72C8A.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    BANK 🤩

    2110688620_ECM1-216(4).thumb.gif.7a080676237145d2605998720679d04a.gif   1518656863_ECM1-240(4).thumb.gif.7704937bd4885a26bf51d191df53ecfc.gif

    @216 and @240

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Battle of the models, it seems?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    4 hours ago, Ice Day said:

    I agree, 72 hours does though!  I would say your location is looking good for a 'summery few days'.

    image.thumb.png.4d9ef719b8cd1481a404a9f031b27ab5.png

    and of course removing hours for darkness reduces that by a good 25.5 hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Even the mean is bringing a baking day for Friday.. Beyond that its more changeable, but again hints towards the end of the run of things settling down again, especially for more Southern parts of the UK... enjoy the next few days.. 

    EDM1-72.gif

    EDM0-72.gif

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    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

    0_798362e45be379814222f6fcbf360543.jpg

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Mean ECM @ day ten,BANK!!!

    EDM1-240.thumb.gif.21f06a80b6ffe504c01ff286922476d9.gifgraphe_ens3_rvm1.thumb.png.ac78dc8fc972051be2fe7f1eaaf9b963.png

    and the op was a cool outlier at that,second plume anyone.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Mean ECM @ day ten,BANK!!!

    EDM1-240.thumb.gif.21f06a80b6ffe504c01ff286922476d9.gifgraphe_ens3_rvm1.thumb.png.ac78dc8fc972051be2fe7f1eaaf9b963.png

    and the op was a cool outlier at that,second plume anyone.

     

    Love it si...problem is that's the 0z ensemble graph.. 🤣

    Here you go mate... 

    graphe0_00_286_73___.png

    graphe1_00_286_73___.png

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    5 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Love it si...problem is that's the 0z ensemble graph.. 🤣

    Whoooops!!!

    that's what i get for watching who want's to be a millionaire at the same time:vava:

    warm outlier it is then:oldlaugh:

    graphe_ens3_xid6.thumb.png.00cd50c86cde5653f6829a4a0a3a9400.png

    the day ten mean still looks good though Matt😍

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    Just now, Allseasons-si said:

    Whoooops!!!

    that's what i get for watching who want's to be a millionaire at the same time:vava:

    warm outlier it is then:oldlaugh:

    graphe_ens3_xid6.thumb.png.00cd50c86cde5653f6829a4a0a3a9400.png

    Didn’t the ecm a few days ago first sniff out the upcoming plume with a outlier op at the time ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Didn’t the ecm a few days ago first sniff out the upcoming plume with a outlier op at the time ?

    To be honest Mark,it's always an outlier in the realms of day ten😜

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    To be honest Mark,it's always an outlier in the realms of day ten😜

    Here 22nd of Julys Ecm 12z outlier ... tonight’s seems more out of kilter though if that makes sense .

    12361F58-852B-46AF-8F15-60FFAD53E878.png

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Holy sheet!

    Iv'e got to weed the Pod People (squashes) on Friday...If I fall asleep - we're all doomed!

    image.png.69ecbbba74898fa697bbe7bc1868bf73.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM ensembles provides about 25% support for a fresh injection of warmth from the south by D9/D10 - so not really the majority line. I still think the better chance of new temperature rises will come a few days after that. 

    Back to this Friday, ECM op run now has a raw maximum of 32C in the south east, which could transmit to an actual maximum of 34/35C - so maybe a coming together with ARPEGE? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    A glimmer on hope and possibly settling down again after next week as we go into August 

    CPC,EPS and the ec46 gif courtesy of Matt Hugo.

    814day_03.thumb.gif.72fd08e471c9476818076881b31a3da0.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.145b19159daec05135b580d311ef6b56.png

     

    i did say last night that there might be a second surge of the Azores hp cell coming to visit,i felt it in my bones:whistling:😉

    enjoy the rest of the week guys and especially Friday,it looks a scorchio now.

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