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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM 00Z temperatures for Friday unchanged from previous runs, so the ARPEGE is a bit on its own with such a high figure, though it seems a fairly reasonable figure bearing in mind the set-up. 

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Good morning, folks...Going by today's GFS 00Z, Friday will not be suited to working inside polytunnels!🔥:oldlaugh:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    But nothing spectacular follows the hot snap, so uncertainty may be the key, as there's plenty of scatter:🤔

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    Have a good one, folks!:oldgood:

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    7 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

    Clusters tonight - looks inevitable that there will be at best a changeable period (at worst unsettled) next week

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072712_192.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072712_240.

    Plenty of encouragement thereafter though, the majority of ensembles raise heights close to UK by D13

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072712_312.

    Thats in broad agreement with these..


     

    today1.gif

    today2.gif

    Edited by mushymanrob
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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    The Arpege mentioned above has the sweet spot around about Heathrow at 4pm:

    arpegeuk-0-86-0.png?28-06

     

    So 36C+ not out of the question somewhere according to that. Not much sign of a thundery breakdown anywhere as yet though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The deviation in temperatures seems to be coming from a shallow wave that could develop across the south of England that would bring the risk of showers/thunderstorms developing.

    image.thumb.png.c2a20586fa2f7251322960a5476ecba8.pngimage.thumb.png.3e3b85a328aa357beb53476f8374188e.png   
     

    This moves slowly eastwards, ahead of this with a near straight southerly then it will become hot. So it depends on how quickly this shallow feature moves east (if it  does actually exist on the day of course). But you can see why the models are picking up cloud and showers off the surface charts. I am still punting from around the 34c mark.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
    22 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    Wrf nmm eu gets the 20C 850s into tho S / SE and the 14C 850s just about grazing here, still a while to go before any confidence over potential storms but shows an area of 30 C from the SE edging westwards and 24C up here which u can usually add a degree or two on to that 940708FE-67EC-4CC9-97F5-1277F5208488.thumb.png.7ff272ae955a31118a7b142a68c21db8.pngF491D2A2-D5F8-4776-8CD0-E48AEDD60FBA.thumb.png.569afd7534076f82ceeac18f74c4b798.png

    Bit of an upgrade on the plume, now comfortably gets the +20 C 850s into the S/SE with the +22C 850s not that far off the south coast, also now the +14C 850s much further west and as a result those temperatures get a further degree or two added on. 0DC5A2BA-8971-4654-A117-CEF46F96D3B2.thumb.png.2d27bd28da36f77d15b9cad4a18a8351.png6F30860D-1009-42C5-BAB7-5C893BCCEDD1.thumb.png.2442bf6b9c43faebaed6a108a1c7b106.pngE4A0779B-BAB2-4E8A-94A9-328C5127E70F.thumb.png.85491e96317e6f0e6e5d36de495f78f9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Good old Navgem 🔥🔥🔥🔥

    FC90927B-B9F6-40D5-81D5-D5D20340C19B.png
     

    Like the Aprege has 36c 😂

     

    BF300B16-D13C-4E26-890A-DE6CA28A99BE.png

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Well, we are nailed on for a few summery and hot days, which at least takes July out on a high.  What happens in early August is now next on the agenda and based on this mornings ECM mean, it looks like days 8-10 are relatively settled, better the further south you are as usual.  Looking at the 850's, it should also be fairly warm. 

    image.thumb.png.183e1a8b9c85621bf7907fe4e0013031.pngimage.thumb.png.dd9b6fc4225dbde6b22f77a9dec6f389.pngimage.thumb.png.af089958bfa3604066d04d1c4b47cf27.png   

    These 850's would probably equate to temps of low to mid 20's, obviously depending on cloud cover etc.  Not brilliant, but no washout either.  

    Edited by Ice Day
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Like the Aprege has 36c 😂

     

    BF300B16-D13C-4E26-890A-DE6CA28A99BE.png

    I hope not!  So easy to achieve exceptionally high temps these days when the setup allows!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Closer inspection of last night's EC weeklies brings more of settled Conditions out towards mid month and out till the end end of the month.. Especially away from the far North where occasional interference from troughs situated over Iceland are possible.. Overall the Azores High is extending ridges more frequently than we have been accustomed to so far this Summer.. Temps perhaps around or slightly above average, but this doesn't mean warmer spells won't be possible at such a range. All in all its a far more positive run for something better to end our Summer on. 

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I think 34C personally. The setup shifts quicker than 2015/2019 meaning that you don't get even a day's proper preconditioning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
    2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

    If we achieve 35C, it will be the third year in a row to do so. When you think how rare it used to be, it’s quite scary.

    Since 1950, it has been achieved in 1957, 1976, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2015, 2018, 2019.

    Where did you find that info? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    14 minutes ago, MKN said:

    Where did you find that info? 

    I just accumulated it from years of reading about the weather and belonging to forums!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    4 hours ago, Ice Day said:

    Well, we are nailed on for a few summery and hot days, which at least takes July out on a high.  What happens in early August is now next on the agenda and based on this mornings ECM mean, it looks like days 8-10 are relatively settled, better the further south you are as usual.  Looking at the 850's, it should also be fairly warm. 

    image.thumb.png.183e1a8b9c85621bf7907fe4e0013031.pngimage.thumb.png.dd9b6fc4225dbde6b22f77a9dec6f389.pngimage.thumb.png.af089958bfa3604066d04d1c4b47cf27.png   

    These 850's would probably equate to temps of low to mid 20's, obviously depending on cloud cover etc.  Not brilliant, but no washout either.  

    Wasn't Aware 36 hours constitutes a few days

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    8 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    Wasn't Aware 36 hours constitutes a few days

    Thurs looks very warm and mainly sunny for most and Fri is hot, Sat also fairly warm...so a ‘summery’ few days ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    That model has got to be smoking something. That's at 7pm as well so if you add a few degrees onto that it would probably show something around 38-39c.

    No its the maximum in the preceding period to 19Z. I think the ICON 06Z also has a couple of 35c now. 

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    That model has got to be smoking something. That's at 7pm as well so if you add a few degrees onto that it would probably show something around 38-39c.

    It'll be the maximum temperature within the preceding 12 hour period. The Aperge does though tend to overdo temperatures this far out under these setups.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

    It'll be the maximum temperature within the preceding 12 hour period. The Aperge does though tend to overdo temperatures this far out under these setups.

    Its usually 0.5-1.5C OTT. Usually if you split the difference from ECM/GFS to Arpege thats a decent ballpark.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    1 hour ago, Gordon Webb said:

    Wasn't Aware 36 hours constitutes a few days

    I agree, 72 hours does though!  I would say your location is looking good for a 'summery few days'.

    image.thumb.png.4d9ef719b8cd1481a404a9f031b27ab5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    5 hours ago, Don said:

    I hope not!  So easy to achieve exceptionally high temps these days when the setup allows!

    Well, if it does exceed 36C, I hope it's neither at Heathrow nor Cambridge Botanical Gardens: I'm fed up of hearing about 'jet exhausts' and 'encroachment'... and was hoping for a year off!:yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    I think 34C personally. The setup shifts quicker than 2015/2019 meaning that you don't get even a day's proper preconditioning.

    I think that's a big statement- the conditions are there for somewhere to get higher than that. Also Thursday is looking hot in the south. I don't see how this spell is that much shorter than the June/July spell in 2015, which also only had one very warm/hot day before the really hot one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    Well, if it does exceed 36C, I hope it's neither at Heathrow nor Cambridge Botanical Gardens: I'm fed up of hearing about 'jet exhausts' and 'encroachment'... and was hoping for a year off!:yahoo:

    July 2020 is looking like a back to front July 2015!

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