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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    The 2015 plume was preceded by unsettled conditions with no build up of heat either, and managed 36.7C. Not sure what the uppers were that day. You'd expect 20C uppers to produce 34C at least - with dry ground, you probably could get another couple of degrees out of it.

    gfs-1-12.thumb.png.8c7a961f307ac99d00af4d6618978dba.png

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    The rest of the ECM run is fairly changeable but not too bad in the south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

    Latest UKV for Friday:

    3D2AA90E-F7AC-4E82-876E-3A59C8B1BD3E.thumb.png.933845a9426e9f4b768179c3f2e78e51.png27E53BA3-0FD9-4A51-BD92-34CCE7CF769E.thumb.png.d9786c5d4ac848a1c25dbb4c40468ea0.png
     

    Max of 31C showing now and is that some thunderstorms I see!? As usual just for fun at this range.

    Have a good night everyone! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    12 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Latest UKV for Friday:

    3D2AA90E-F7AC-4E82-876E-3A59C8B1BD3E.thumb.png.933845a9426e9f4b768179c3f2e78e51.png27E53BA3-0FD9-4A51-BD92-34CCE7CF769E.thumb.png.d9786c5d4ac848a1c25dbb4c40468ea0.png
     

    Max of 31C showing now and is that some thunderstorms I see!? As usual just for fun at this range.

    Have a good night everyone! 

    That’s an interesting one. 19c in the Southampton area on that forecast. Met office says 24c with a slight shower chance....bbc says 27c

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    June 2015 was also very dry so would’ve helped with temperatures rising. Not such the case this time with little build up but low thirties at least looks a given.

    Of course, most important is the weekend which might just about be fair although a lot cooler. If only thurs/fri was sat/sun.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

    That’s an interesting one. 19c in the Southampton area on that forecast. Met office says 24c with a slight shower chance....bbc says 27c

    Thats purely picking up on the heavy precip that just would have moved through. Although quite a few models do seem to have messy convective activity (the worst type, i.e. ruins the sun/heat, but doesn't deliver the goods electrically) moving in through the early afternoon. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    ECM mean T96 - 20C uppers for the SE on a mean chart!

    E6131878-8513-477D-BE86-FF1354278224.thumb.gif.6cbd5df91368172f5051af58e0c3af57.gif

    Always remarkable to see 20C uppers on a mean chart! 

    My updated predictions based upon ECM 12Z raw data plus the usual 2-3C

    Thursday 28-29C

    Friday 33-34C

    Saturday 29-30C

    Sunday 25-26C

    A reminder about June 2019 — record level uppers, but not record temperatures due to wind direction. The slight easterly maybe will prevent the full extent of upper to surface level transformation on temperatures? Since ideal conditions could bring 36C from the upper air charts we're seeing, but the models clearly aren't seeing absolutely ideal conditions for maximized uppers to lower air conversion for Friday. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Interesting to note that the latest UKMO fax chart has a N Spain/BoB low from 96-120 and i wonder how far north this could get with more corrections NW with the already corrections that we have seen with this plume the last few days,Friday evening/night into Saturday could see some fireworks over southern UK especially

    fax96s.thumb.gif.0c43ea2e15de8c3691eeb1c7fc2ec7d1.giffax120s.thumb.gif.379c6d72b2bad2b926dd9fc454d01dbe.gif

    and as already been mentioned by quiet a few on here over the last few days it is looking toasty Friday

    here is some 850's from UKMO,ECM,APERGE and ICON

    96-7UK.thumb.gif.9c7f2c8c1c06b0e0f70e9ff5343e8864.gifECU0-96.thumb.gif.df1f7695c145a0a6d0ea14b95fd7ecd3.gifarpegeuk-16-96-0.thumb.png.7b6a272a5ff0c59750dfcd4a7778fefd.pngiconeu_uk1-16-96-0.thumb.png.5ecd620101532d12d8c1045a7c0b4f4b.png

    GFS temps for 14:00 although we won't know the max temp as it goes from 14:00-20:00 and the peak heat will be between this,we will know more on the day what the act temp will be and i wouldn't rule out somewhere in the low 30's being breached 

    96-580UK.thumb.gif.5d5e623b459e66dade2181df1719429f.gif

    JJF ppn charts from 20:00 Friday-08:00 Saturday

    102-779UK.thumb.gif.6bef96226ac266f0ea598c1c6844444f.gif108-779UK.thumb.gif.59637f1ca0edfc1f3656912c2c55c874.gif114-779UK.thumb.gif.7de409cd6e05b057e3dc46ea464d7d22.gif

    all speculative at this moment in time but at least we have something exciting to discuss for the end of this week whether it be sunshine,heat,storms etc,but this does look like a brief plume affair so enjoy it whilst it last's☀️🔥🌡️🌩️😉

    could there be a renewed push from the Azores high soon after?,watch this space

    have a good evening all.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I don't really know what to make of the UKV model for Friday. Something doesn't sit right! 

    It shows 21°C 850Hpa temps across parts of the Southeast on Friday, but it also shows a lot of cloud across many parts. A 10°C drop in temps within the space of 3 hours, too - related to rain of course.

    Too much is going on with it to take it seriously. I get that feeling that something will scupper the absolute maximums.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM mean T96 - 20C uppers for the SE on a mean chart!

    E6131878-8513-477D-BE86-FF1354278224.thumb.gif.6cbd5df91368172f5051af58e0c3af57.gif

     

    And here it is in graph form for London.

    graphe_ens3_dpu7.thumb.png.5c25107b5661aa495b3619381a2d32e1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    I don't really know what to make of the UKV model for Friday. Something doesn't sit right! 

    It shows 21°C 850Hpa temps across parts of the Southeast on Friday, but it also shows a lot of cloud across many parts. A 10°C drop in temps within the space of 3 hours, too - related to rain of course.

    Too much is going on with it to take it seriously. I get that feeling that something will scupper the absolute maximums.

    Something always does though.

    10th August 2003

    1st July 2015

    25th July 2019

    all had cloud building up at some point which prevented temps going even higher.

    We do get a lot of bad luck it seems.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    20 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    I don't really know what to make of the UKV model for Friday. Something doesn't sit right! 

    It shows 21°C 850Hpa temps across parts of the Southeast on Friday, but it also shows a lot of cloud across many parts. A 10°C drop in temps within the space of 3 hours, too - related to rain of course.

    Too much is going on with it to take it seriously. I get that feeling that something will scupper the absolute maximums.

    Looking through the ECM ensembles has given me confidence that this will be too low - the ECM op really does sit right in the middle of the ensemble set, with about 25% of runs pushing on a couple of degrees higher. The 31C raw temp would usually translate to an actual of 34Cish (last year it showed 36C for the day that reached 38.6C, and 30C for the day in June that reached 34C). 

    The ARPEGE usually starts to see the correct values at T72 (within 1 or 2 degrees), so tomorrow's 12Z will be one to look out for

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    There has been some derision of the CFS AAM charts, but this surely is now in the reliable, 

    EDE5185F-1D32-45DD-9275-A87D39F4616C.thumb.png.b9ea99bb0732c035a7eaf6bbe7e24937.png

    Whether this will be enough post plume, to reinvigorate August, we will see...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

     ICON 18z just out ,T84:

    5A8DD90F-2E8F-4D7D-8EB2-6E0CF0EB1AFB.thumb.png.f156b9e54d68a6fa6211fceeeced14b3.png

    It is going to be fleeting but hot!  

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Right then, EC46 updates.. We all know about the plume.. But what comes next! Conditions look quite unsettled into next week and rather cool... Some signs now emerging of High pressure building in towards the end of next week, and this looks like holding through the Weekend and into the following.. Now that would be something... Fine Weekend!! We would be highly honoured. 

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

    Something always does though.

    10th August 2003

    1st July 2015

    25th July 2019

    all had cloud building up at some point which prevented temps going even higher.

    We do get a lot of bad luck it seems.

    Not bad luck as much as it's a corollary of being surrounded by water?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Pub run rolling,  just out to T60 but you can see the heat building to the south.  

    4A339E5B-2B8E-4411-89D7-F4A951C5A8C2.thumb.png.c8b928752e1540484e48f06620986cb2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    18 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

    Not bad luck as much as it's a corollary of being surrounded by water?

    You have a point - but we are talking about an hour here or there. If the cloud had held back another hour on 10/8/03, then who knows? Same for 25/719.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Pub run T90:

    F922322D-5DEE-42BB-AE8F-DF05975D59B6.thumb.png.636535b604c83d67c70bba44262fb267.png

    That is hot across the country not just the SE, where the +20C isotherm is....

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

    Indeed - as @Alderc mentioned it is all down to projected cloud cover, rainfall ect ect.

    This was the temperature chart for midday Friday.

    C2FE563F-9CD7-4C03-AD3A-3F1D942D1C53.thumb.png.e128f008cf5cd85318b0c77e4c7a7536.png


    On a side note I noticed the congratulations flying about earlier - wee deserved mention for @Man With Beard

     

    Worked out well this one! 

    I've started analyzing the accuracy of the clusters using historical charts - I hope to share a pdf on this in the next few weeks - they go wrong sometimes but they do pick up on some useful trends early on, June 2018 springs to mind. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Clusters tonight - looks inevitable that there will be at best a changeable period (at worst unsettled) next week

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072712_192.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072712_240.

    Plenty of encouragement thereafter though, the majority of ensembles raise heights close to UK by D13

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072712_312.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    24 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    A high of 36’C for Friday from the Aperge.

    arpegeuk-31-90-0_zjz3.png

    One thing of note is that it could be an early max for most, arpege like other models has nuisance cloud and weak showery activity from midday in Dorset spreading into the south east though the afternoon. Parts of Dorset drop from 32c at midday to 22c a few hours later. 
     

    GFS and GEM has similar showery activity breaking out in the south west ruining the day so likely not even a hot day there.
     

    I can’t see any other model with a max higher than 32c, arpege looks a touch high imo.  

    Edited by Alderc
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