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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    42 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

     

    Interesting chart, thanks. MetO seems to be at odds with this then, because it's showing easterly winds for Kent (as mentioned above) and also for my location in Essex.

     

    That'll be their website forecast/app forecast following the UKV:

    viewimage.thumb.png.c2c96864e1b5269647d4582f6f537e28.png

    Subtle changes by Friday, no doubt.

    I should also add, Scorcher was posting 850hPa wind streams. Quite a difference between the two.

    Edited by Mapantz
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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Pub run out now, the plume,T114:

    D3672006-7BD5-4D32-AB19-F1AABC625A13.thumb.png.af44bc7df5b858d3abd712e4d1f25ef5.png1B8B5CD3-EBDB-45F5-AB65-831F460787A3.thumb.png.7ca8c786b8d09b16a73f0d5daf150641.png

    Yes it is happening, but it is a short sharp heat shock.   Anyway, enjoy if it is your thing!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]

    Interesting that the wind direction is still unsure at this stage - that can mean the difference between 22oC in a NE wind or 32oC in a S wind for those in places like north Kent. Will be keeping a close eye on that over the next few days. Anyone away from the coasts in the SE looks to be odds on for some serious (if short) heat 

    Edited by Coopsy
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    No sign of anything settled in the model output this morning. Both GFS and ECM have a similar profile throughout with low, ridge, low, ridge.

    As ever the SE will see better than the NW in these situations. 

    Currently lashing rain and 12 degrees in the NW.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Looking good for a few warm/hot days as the week progresses, with the peak of the heat Friday, then Saturday confined to the south east.  This mornings ECM shows a brief flirtation with the 19c Isotherm!

    image.thumb.png.dd907dd96e69714fb82ca9e65405836c.png

    However, what comes after is not looking as positive with a mobile westerly pattern establishing for a few days.  It's likely going to feel quite autumnal for our northern members..... sorry 😬

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The ECM 0z operational shows a lovely warm up later this week, I’m thinking 27c across the south by Thursday and then 30 possibly 31c for the s / se on Friday..then (depending on the timing of the change to cooler / fresher air from the west) possibly very warm again further SE on Saturday..so, it’s been an abysmal July but there’s a little taste of summer just as July ends!:drinks:😉
    BF896FF7-87AB-4490-8BE1-78121386AF46.thumb.png.1543270b3f834b1b64a4d00e5d6bbda3.pngD2F5B57C-DBD8-4C76-9344-31FAB4A693F6.thumb.png.008ab8f6a824d1af5d6f25f822bbc2da.png214A2F58-A202-42DF-BAED-8741C228F850.thumb.png.f5271a89c4d152799b1b3c92185909c1.png203831D1-1E2D-4DAB-9EAE-480B47FE3974.thumb.png.cb5d4c77dd68a264830457a7ee14be14.png7E32C8C3-1F59-48A4-A017-797BC584599C.thumb.png.e9ee3e92f4a6926eb31a88e6b838f25c.pngFE41D67F-B9C7-4922-8F2A-838833AFEC01.thumb.png.874d28161cda7b1750eadd3497dc531b.png

     

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Output beyond the weekend looks poor once again, and probably for the 3 or 4th time this is summer the weather goes into annoyance overdrive and reserves the best conditions for the week and the breakdown for the weekend. Have we actually had any good weekends this summer? 

    One thing of I note about later in the week there are several similarities with the spell at the start of July 2015, that brief hot spell produced some of the most memorable TS in Bournemouth in the last 30years. Not too much currently on the convective front but will be interesting to see what things look in a day or two's time.... 

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Monday 27 July

    Taking another look at the anomaly charts to see what changes, if any, since Thursday when EC showed a small +ve area over the UK but the other two did not. Well none of them have any sign of +ve heights let alone ridges close to the UK, be that East or West of us. Both EC and GFS have not totally different looking charts with the emphasis from the eastern coast of N America out to NNorway/Russis being dominated by upper lows, not the same shape/intensity etc on both and with a general Atlantic flow being predicted.

    NOAA is mostly on the same page again with no sign of any ridging in the contour lines near the UK. The slight indication well east is less than it showed a day or so ago. Again it’s a general Atlantic flow, fairly flat this time although the past couple of days have shown slight (very) buckling in places.

    So what does this seem to suggest for the UK weather in the 6-10 day frame? Not a cop out but much as before is the simplest way of explaining what looks like happening. 60:40 in terms of time with changeable:settled in my view. No signal for any prolonged height rises, to give dry, warm, sunny weather. The oft experienced NW-SE split, the best of any dry warmth for SE and the more changeable pattern the further NW from the SE one lives.

     

    Mushy was quite right to point out that plumes are not what one can predict using these charts. What they do help with is the general weather patterns, so long isobar flows from SSE to SSW can be suggested on occasion but nothing further than that. Nor is that likely from the predicted charts. One fine/warm/hot day for many would be the best we could expect from the current trio of charts.

    Nor is the NOAA 8-14 any more positive.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    25 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Monday 27 July

    Taking another look at the anomaly charts to see what changes, if any, since Thursday when EC showed a small +ve area over the UK but the other two did not. Well none of them have any sign of +ve heights let alone ridges close to the UK, be that East or West of us. Both EC and GFS have not totally different looking charts with the emphasis from the eastern coast of N America out to NNorway/Russis being dominated by upper lows, not the same shape/intensity etc on both and with a general Atlantic flow being predicted.

    NOAA is mostly on the same page again with no sign of any ridging in the contour lines near the UK. The slight indication well east is less than it showed a day or so ago. Again it’s a general Atlantic flow, fairly flat this time although the past couple of days have shown slight (very) buckling in places.

    So what does this seem to suggest for the UK weather in the 6-10 day frame? Not a cop out but much as before is the simplest way of explaining what looks like happening. 60:40 in terms of time with changeable:settled in my view. No signal for any prolonged height rises, to give dry, warm, sunny weather. The oft experienced NW-SE split, the best of any dry warmth for SE and the more changeable pattern the further NW from the SE one lives.

     

    Mushy was quite right to point out that plumes are not what one can predict using these charts. What they do help with is the general weather patterns, so long isobar flows from SSE to SSW can be suggested on occasion but nothing further than that. Nor is that likely from the predicted charts. One fine/warm/hot day for many would be the best we could expect from the current trio of charts.

    Nor is the NOAA 8-14 any more positive.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    There are very weak signs though, on the 8-14 day chart that theres is a slight Eastward progress of the AZH with slight ridging over Iberia?

    Ok, im clutching at straws, but that very slight ridging may build on subsequent runs and at least back the contour lines to a warmer southwesterly towards mid month?.. That might re-enforce a SE/NW divide but conditions shouldnt be too bad.
     

    hope.gif

    Edited by mushymanrob
    typo
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    There are very weak signs though, on the 8-14 day chart that theres is a slight Eastward progress of the AZH with slight ridging over Iberia?

    Ok, im clutching at straws, but that very slight ridging may build on subsequent runs and at least back the contour lines to a warmer southwesterly towards mid month?.. That might re-enforce a SE/NW divide but conditions shouldnt be too bad.
     

    hope.gif

    As you say mushy, very slight, just 30 DM, IF it starts to increase and gets to about 90DM then it is worth keeping a close eye on.

    I should have added if the 90DM was there for a couple of days and also started to show on the 6-10 then it would be pointing about 60:40 to this occurring

    Edited by johnholmes
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    33 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

     

    If Friday's forecast comes off as above, it will be the third year in a row that both June and July have exceeded 33C - I'd be surprised if this has happened before.

     

     

    Even more notably it would extend the run of consecutive  summer months reaching 33c/90f to 8 starting from June 2018. Perhaps even 9 if it is also reached on the 1st August. Almost certainly not happened before 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    4 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

    Even more notably it would extend the run of consecutive  summer months reaching 33c/90f to 8 starting from June 2018. Perhaps even 9 if it is also reached on the 1st August. Almost certainly not happened before 

    Most impressive run i could find was 30C in every summer month from July 02 to Aug 06 (plus Sep 05 and Sep 06).

    You could possibly check the 94-97 period. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    Wrf nmm eu gets the 20C 850s into tho S / SE and the 14C 850s just about grazing here, still a while to go before any confidence over potential storms but shows an area of 30 C from the SE edging westwards and 24C up here which u can usually add a degree or two on to that 940708FE-67EC-4CC9-97F5-1277F5208488.thumb.png.7ff272ae955a31118a7b142a68c21db8.pngF491D2A2-D5F8-4776-8CD0-E48AEDD60FBA.thumb.png.569afd7534076f82ceeac18f74c4b798.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Some temperature charts for the end of the week.. Still looking like 27-31c is possible in favoured locations.. 

    The ECM mean is poor out to day 10 with pressure falling to under 1010mb at times.. I've just checked the extended out to day 14,and its hinting at an improvement, with pressure rising closer to 1020mb come the end.. Hopefully this could signal a change of fortune towards mid month.. These 2 or 3 fine days don't really cut it for me... So I'm looking towards something more lasting 10 days or so. 

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2020072700_111_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_moddeu_2020072706_105_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modcan_2020072700_111_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modaus_2020072700_111_18_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    Sorry if this has been asked before, but where can I access the raw ECM max temps? Had a look but can't seem to find them... thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Looking increasingly likely that like last month, we will surpass 30C and 90F on the same day. Somewhere may sneak a 33 / 34. Hoping that the longer term shows a bit more influence from the Azores high.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 hours ago, h2005__uk__ said:

    Sorry if this has been asked before, but where can I access the raw ECM max temps? Had a look but can't seem to find them... thanks.

    Go to

    WWW.WXCHARTS.COM

    A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots

    Adjust bottom menus to desired model/parameter etc. ECM hi res 2m temps are there. 👍🏻

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    3 hours ago, h2005__uk__ said:

    Sorry if this has been asked before, but where can I access the raw ECM max temps? Had a look but can't seem to find them... thanks.

    I'm not sure if WX Charts gives the maximum values - this one does:

    complete_model_modez_2020072700_18_4855_
    WEATHER.US

    ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current model charts of parameter "Max. temperature, 6h" for map "England"

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    I'm still struggling to see why the peak of the heat isn't reaching further east (i.e. Essex/Suffolk). The setup looks similar to the heat on a few occasions in Summer 2019 - i.e. SE winds and the peak around 30-32C - and Essex tapped into this.

    Is there a reason why the heat (according to the models) seems to not be making its way as far as Essex this time?

    The issue at the end of June seemed to be easterly winds but most models now seem to be showing a SE wind for Friday but highs of 'only' 26-27C in Essex.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    9 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

    I'm still struggling to see why the peak of the heat isn't reaching further east (i.e. Essex/Suffolk). The setup looks similar to the heat on a few occasions in Summer 2019 - i.e. SE winds and the peak around 30-32C - and Essex tapped into this.

    Is there a reason why the heat (according to the models) seems to not be making its way as far as Essex this time?

    The issue at the end of June seemed to be easterly winds but most models now seem to be showing a SE wind for Friday but highs of 'only' 26-27C in Essex.

    Don’t pay much attention to temperature predictions. Still 4 days away and most models undercook them. Best to start looking for the hi res models in the next couple of days which tend to be more accurate. The wind direction seems to be more southerly than easterly (SSE); if that’s the case, you’d expect to see 30c quite comfortably exceeded in this setup.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS T96:

    539B14CD-109C-4822-8BC8-1933AA03425A.thumb.png.692994c8497a87e15164f4e3d28b8178.png

    Wow, this could be one hot day.  Fair play to those who spotted this hot plume coming, I think @JON SNOW and @Steve Murr were the first to latch on to it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    GFS T96:

    539B14CD-109C-4822-8BC8-1933AA03425A.thumb.png.692994c8497a87e15164f4e3d28b8178.png

    Wow, this could be one hot day.  Fair play to those who spotted this hot plume coming, I think @JON SNOW and @Steve Murr were the first to latch on to it!

    You’d expect 34C from that chart - maybe even a little more. But you can bet that the 2m temp predictions will be way lower.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    GFS T96:

    539B14CD-109C-4822-8BC8-1933AA03425A.thumb.png.692994c8497a87e15164f4e3d28b8178.png

    Wow, this could be one hot day.  Fair play to those who spotted this hot plume coming, I think @JON SNOW and @Steve Murr were the first to latch on to it!

    Yup and gfs has fallen in line with yesterdays ecm 12z and brings the higher 850 hpa temps further north and slightly west for friday!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    GFS T96:

    539B14CD-109C-4822-8BC8-1933AA03425A.thumb.png.692994c8497a87e15164f4e3d28b8178.png

    Wow, this could be one hot day.  Fair play to those who spotted this hot plume coming, I think @JON SNOW and @Steve Murr were the first to latch on to it!

    The 20C upper air line is over the SE for the whole of Friday afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised at all if 35C is achieved on the back of that. 

    ARPEGE 12Z is out for France, just look at that heat, 39C right up to the north coast, wouldn't take much of a shift to get some of that over the channel

    arpege-31-102-0.png?27-17

    UKMO 12Z - well it just looks like a classic heat bomb chart

    UW96-21.GIF?27-17

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