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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    6 minutes ago, claret047 said:

    Hello Mark

    I trust you and family are well.

    Did you mean "stinking" as in sweating perspiration without using deodorant, or a terrible ecm for those liking summery weather.

    Or more likely did you mean "stonking" and it was a typo.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    Hi Dave I and the family are well thanks, I hope you and your family are well too , Great to hear from you . I was covering both bases , If it’s a bad run then I meant stinking but a hot one it’s a typo 😂. ( was really a typo ) . In all seriousness I’m having fun in here but learning all the time off the more knowledgeable posters . I hope they don’t mind my sense of humour with the Navgem , I feel I’ve learnt a lot but so much still to learn. Always happy to be corrected .
     

    The Navgem is brief but toasty in the SE .

    Regards Mark

    75210C61-F212-49B2-9E68-BAF2CEEAD474.png

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    This evening's ECM brings the 20C upper air line well through the south coast on Friday afternoon and 16C to the borders. 

    Friday temperatures likely to hit 90F somewhere based upon this forecast, and 30C probably quite widespread. Talk about saving July from the lions mouth! 

    Saturday though is downgraded (in keeping with many other runs today), with only the far south east still in the heat, possibly touching 30C in Kent and Essex but much lower elsewhere. 

    Better shape in the Atlantic to keep Sunday / Monday relatively sunny and warm too. 

    still though on the EC monday looks damp, another wet Monday

    ECM1-192.GIF?26-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    It’s a stinker folks 😔

    8287B923-8903-457B-954E-52916E47CCB1.gif
     

    However a nice ending so the run as a whole has a bit for everyone. 

    A6ABC2EE-00B7-40AD-B8CC-BD4831331FDD.gif

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

    Evening all

    Just a quick one! Latest UKV for Thursday and Friday below.

    Thursday 15:00:

    B9E23B68-4436-465F-87EF-20E6A2F8A2F0.thumb.png.6d0cee722e8ab33c29641beeaf6d05cf.png8293F93B-FF6A-42D1-A915-74FF7B3F2446.thumb.png.db16331ec316fcc09d42101d38e0c7da.png
     

    18:00:

    335277F2-75F2-4B8C-BC54-EA42A74E1E4F.thumb.png.f75758e7232f1cd30932e54b98acbc25.png4214F00F-EF96-41DA-BB1D-E82277B593C1.thumb.png.9b7e08948adabc9670a226d98e650849.png
     

    Friday 15:00:

    99227731-3987-4B22-ACD0-BC2B6661E744.thumb.png.92be316eebe8b33ecf1043536f763a02.pngAD770A12-1913-451D-B3CD-04CB6F6D835C.thumb.png.7edba66597f28329b486d9d0fe39dfba.png
     

    Thursday shows a high of 25C and Friday delivers 28C. (Usually safe to add at least 1C to those figures)

    As ever subject to change at this range and just for fun at the moment! 

    Have a good night everyone and all the best!

    Edit: @Coopsy All the wind charts only go out to a certain timeframe - unfortunately not that far out! Gillingham for every is showing an Easterly direction on the Met Office automated for Friday afternoon.

    Edited by Mr Frost
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    That 12z ECM chart @240

    Low pressure out in the Atlantic nearby to our west + ridging from the Azores High = a setup for something plume like

    In fact, it looks almost like t96 on the right:

    1639106858_ECM1-240(3).thumb.gif.221fc5014ffafbd23cb44289aad00221.gif   850606790_ECM1-96(1).thumb.gif.54bb4e8d91a1b79025151559968f3d6c.gif

    Déjà vu?! :ninja:

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Some great posts today, sadly I’m out of reactions for the time being but moving swiftly on and we are still on track for a Brief Encounter..with a plume of very warm & increasingly humid, perhaps even hot air on Friday which may extend into Saturday further SE..so, just in the nick of time, July, which has mostly been pish, looks like at least ending on a summery note..could end with a Bang too! 🎵 😜🔥☀️🌩️
    630586E1-5422-42A3-9FAA-494A193DAE2E.thumb.jpeg.b4bf5cc2a3e5f55fec684fa24c640fee.jpeg466B3A21-DB3B-4C39-8503-F5AB42BBA364.thumb.png.2f05bafa670d84d7a73d9b1a728addef.png2D4EE189-0E63-43A6-AEC8-78438B376B71.thumb.png.e770902cd784761d1147e8d9caec79b2.png137C6CA3-3C77-404F-967F-A82CB05BA682.thumb.png.2ec356a3e7888f33ddfe5cead7da9ed8.pngD0E05219-B455-4A9F-B7BB-743F15533323.thumb.png.3e80793936da4cadad4ff0066d4dd66e.png2FD03852-3FB1-4DB4-94A2-40B4E08DB016.thumb.png.eb36bc6af471a57df4b03525526c783a.png86F1DA3F-F5DA-4688-B108-20DC76811A50.thumb.png.42a2dd4bbbe336cdcd8caab5961c6bb0.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    40 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    still though on the EC monday looks damp, another wet Monday

    ECM1-192.GIF?26-0

    Not one of my better calls. I quickly looked at the Sunday chart and thought it said Monday! Apologies! 

    Still, looks a bit of an extreme outcome, I doubt it will be that bad. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    No sugar coating the mean.. We have a brief plume followed by somewhat cooler conditions and more unsettled... Especially further North, where it looks disappointing at times.. I still feel the first part of the new month looks mixed at times, and it's perhaps mid month before anther improving picture emerges.. The EC46 may provide more clues on Monday.. Have a very good evening folks. 

    EDM1-96.gif

    EDM1-120.gif

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168.gif

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
    34 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Evening all

    Just a quick one! Latest UKV for Thursday and Friday below.

    Thursday 15:00:

    B9E23B68-4436-465F-87EF-20E6A2F8A2F0.thumb.png.6d0cee722e8ab33c29641beeaf6d05cf.png8293F93B-FF6A-42D1-A915-74FF7B3F2446.thumb.png.db16331ec316fcc09d42101d38e0c7da.png
     

    18:00:

    335277F2-75F2-4B8C-BC54-EA42A74E1E4F.thumb.png.f75758e7232f1cd30932e54b98acbc25.png4214F00F-EF96-41DA-BB1D-E82277B593C1.thumb.png.9b7e08948adabc9670a226d98e650849.png
     

    Friday 15:00:

    99227731-3987-4B22-ACD0-BC2B6661E744.thumb.png.92be316eebe8b33ecf1043536f763a02.pngAD770A12-1913-451D-B3CD-04CB6F6D835C.thumb.png.7edba66597f28329b486d9d0fe39dfba.png
     

    Thursday shows a high of 25C and Friday delivers 28C. (Usually safe to add at least 1C to those figures)

    As ever subject to change at this range and just for fun at the moment! 

    Have a good night everyone and all the best!

    It’s only showing 22oC for here in north Kent which usually means winds are from anywhere N to E - I thought this would bring southerly winds. Can you advise of the wind set up predicted for this plume as this has big impacts in temps - cheers

    i remember last year either July or August - I’m sure we had the 20 850 hpa temp here in Kent but it was very chilly with a keen NE wind. 

     

     

    Edited by Coopsy
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Wouldn't say even a plume? just a longer break between Atlantic systems, very normal for time of year

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    It appears the op had a little fit regarding pressure... The mean shows the decline out today 10..1010mb to 1014mb North to South as an average.. Temps not overly bad. 

    graphe0_00_269_122___.png

    graphe1_00_269_122___.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Matt Hugo isn't happen you've used these

    download.thumb.png.420ea9d1b776b8400d6721f7a9ce9e63.png

    He doesn’t like us here any more for some reason.  

    JMA T120:

    CD9C57B2-5798-48EB-BA14-CDC6237436C6.thumb.gif.d49c686cacc0ce7c892d44559d099ff5.gif

    Short sharp plume this one, enjoy next vendredi everyone!

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
    1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

    Edit: @Coopsy All the wind charts only go out to a certain timeframe - unfortunately not that far out! Gillingham for every is showing an Easterly direction on the Met Office automated for Friday afternoon.

    Thank you! That makes sense for the moderated temps off the North Sea - this makes me happy as someone who struggles with the heat. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    What's causing the easterly winds in the east during this plume? The same happened at the end of June. Normally they're southerly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    8 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

    What's causing the easterly winds in the east during this plume? The same happened at the end of June. Normally they're southerly.

    No easterly anywhere on Friday going by the ECM- looks southerly for virtually the whole UK.

    ECMOPUK12_120_3.png

    The 850 hPa temps are incredible for Friday on this run as well

    ECMOPUK12_120_2.png

     

    Reminds me a bit of the 2015 spell at the start of July- very brief but potentially widespread temps over 30C.

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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester

    Also interesting re this upcoming plume-let and causation and AAM uptick ..! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    3 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

    Also interesting re this upcoming plume-let and causation and AAM uptick ..! 

    Sometimes people over think these things, I think it will be a brief plume event Friday/Saturday notable yes, because we haven’t really had any interesting weather yet this summer.  

    Re AAM, well CFS ( which I am able to watch for free) has this now:

    AB118A9C-3530-4ACB-8907-2DDD1EBC563E.thumb.png.10872aba35a854a2d0dd9326cc87c4cc.png

    If this happens, and I understand if people are sceptical given performance of CFS so far, much more summery weather in August would likely result, I think. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

     

    13 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    No easterly anywhere on Friday going by the ECM- looks southerly for virtually the whole UK.

    ECMOPUK12_120_3.png

     

    Interesting chart, thanks. MetO seems to be at odds with this then, because it's showing easterly winds for Kent (as mentioned above) and also for my location in Essex.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    Sometimes people over think these things, I think it will be a brief plume event Friday/Saturday notable yes, because we haven’t really had any interesting weather yet this summer.  

    Re AAM, well CFS ( which I am able to watch for free) has this now:

    AB118A9C-3530-4ACB-8907-2DDD1EBC563E.thumb.png.10872aba35a854a2d0dd9326cc87c4cc.png

    If this happens, and I understand if people are sceptical given performance of CFS so far, much more summery weather in August would likely result, I think. 

    How does AAM interact with changing seasonal wavelengths as August progresses? 

    Is it as clear cut as it is earlier on in the season where +ve AAM correlates to more settled weather?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    How does AAM interact with changing seasonal wavelengths as August progresses? 

    Is it as clear cut as it is earlier on in the season where +ve AAM correlates to more settled weather?

    Good points, and I have to say I don’t know.  We will see, post plume, what happens but I’m hopeful of some kind of amplification that leads to a downstream ridge.  As always, we watch the models...

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    A brief plume looks likely now - just in time to keep the run of summer months achieving 90F going it seems.

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    How does AAM interact with changing seasonal wavelengths as August progresses? 

    Is it as clear cut as it is earlier on in the season where +ve AAM correlates to more settled weather?

    I assume it takes more of an AAM surge to see same results with jet stream at its most poleward around now even a slight rise in AAM can be very helpful? Neutral AAM maybe not that good as Autumn is approaching perhaps it takes stronger +AAM to fight off increasing zonality as high latitudes begin to cool, and thermal gradient increases. Regardless of AAM I don’t believe this means anything as to more or less hurricanes, an active season think should be avoided for good settled weather in NW Europe...last very active year was 2017 and we all remember that big deterioration in second half.

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