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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Pretty sure that ECM op will be a big outlier from 144. It’s almost perfection how it unravels from the very promising 120 chart. Still, this is why FI is just that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    7 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    I like that style of posting Mike - ignore the rest of the ECM and sneak the latest JMA charts in straight after. 😁

    .

    Well it is FI after all, I certainly wouldn’t want to claim to predict anything post day 6 at the moment.  And the end of the 12z ECM is like the end of the world, you won’t notice it until it has happened, then it is too late...

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    19 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Deep FI. But the ECM is total rubbish, it has to be said.

    Was attempting to show an opposing view to the one way street of traffic, easy for someone new to be mislead...

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, ribster said:

    Was attempting to show an opposing view to the one way street of traffic, easy for someone new to be mislead...

    Which is fine. However, I don’t think many of us think the plume will last long.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    4 minutes ago, ribster said:

    easy for someone new to be mislead...

    I'm not new, but seeing a single chart posted with a caption of "hmm" underneath it wasn't particularly helpful either. 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    9 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

    Using ECM raw temps plus 2-3C (a technique that we used very successfully last July), the forthcoming hot snap might produce UK maximums of:

    Thursday 26/27C

    Friday 29/30C

    Saturday 32/33C

    Sunday 24/25C

    Still a little too far out for confidence but we should start to get a fairly certain picture by Monday, I'd guess. 

     

    Using same calculations on the ECM 12Z

    Thursday 26/27C

    Friday 30/31C

    Saturday 32/33C (strictly SE corner only)

    Sunday 25/26C

    Away from central/eastern England, Friday is the day to watch, with high 20Cs possible in favoured spots of the NE and Scotland, and 30C possible in the best spots in Wales too. If this forecast doesn't hold, July will have passed without a single hot day in some of these parts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Euro on board with near neutral GLAAM on the positive side. I think some are getting OTT though in thinking that positive GLAAM cures all things.

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    The plume itself, no, it is a next weekend thing.  But after, signals of increasing AAM are starting to come into the reliable, CFS take:

    6E1A1649-9B2D-4CDD-9E04-B8F9C2779860.thumb.png.240d0a443d76e7f5ab5e5ed6f7d01c3a.pngA69E558E-C19E-42FE-A262-07D25FA6A168.thumb.png.c46977ff0ef20a97db1f6114618a3e60.png

    Totally against my summer forecast for sure, but could we be about to see a poor summer resurrected by a decent August?  

    Not so sure Mike, and I would love to be proven wrong, but at this stage it looks to me like a mixed and changeable first half of August, with perhaps a better spell towards mid month. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Euro on board with near neutral GLAAM on the positive side. I think some are getting OTT though in thinking that positive GLAAM cures all things.

    spacer.png

    Nothing cures all things, either in weather or life @summer blizzard, but an upsurge in AAM at the moment really could turn our fortunes around for the rest of summer, although more likely for benefit of the south east and less likely for the north west.  We will see.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Regarding tonight's ECM operational, perhaps a little severe with those falling Heights and temperatures.. But the mean does show a gradual decline in pressure later.. So perhaps becoming more mixed towards the latter half of next Weekend. 

    EDM1-120.gif

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

    graphe1_00_267_115___.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    So the ridge building at in the second half of next week looks secure, but how things transpire look uncertain still.

    So the Atlantic low looks to join the main trough instead of the hope it would remain cut off. So it will be a brief event, however we also have a large blocking high over northern Russia that will interact with the ridge building through the U.K. subsequently we have a trough west of us and a deep cut off low over Eastern Europe so the risk of our ridge sheering is sufficient to not only block to push of significant heat northwards (See UKMO), but also later on for the jetstream to break through and push back through the U.K. again. Plume events tend to see surface heights over the northern mainland of Europe with winds from the south/south east. Strong sheering of the ridge will put it further north over Scandinavia with cooler air from the east undercutting the heat trying to build nortowards.

    Something to watch over the coming 48 hours. Hopefully we will see a cleaner clearance of the low during the first half of this week for a start.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    56 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Nothing cures all things, either in weather or life @summer blizzard, but an upsurge in AAM at the moment really could turn our fortunes around for the rest of summer, although more likely for benefit of the south east and less likely for the north west.  We will see.. 

    Perhaps however the stats for August’s following sub 15.7C July’s are not good.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Just now, summer blizzard said:

    Perhaps however the stats for August’s following sub 15.7C July’s are not good.

    Well that is a completely different issue isn’t it?   My thoughts about summer, and I posted them on here, you can look them up, were about propensity for Azores ridge in the early part of summer, until La Niña took hold.  None of that really happened, now I think increased AAM will deliver a better more settled last third of summer, although not sure how far north west this will extend.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ICON 18z has the low held back in the Atlantic at the end of the short run, T120 compared with T126 on 12z:

    3C85A8F4-99A0-4E55-85A1-86E5CD221D37.thumb.png.0474679f9b3f5f3c37e99ad7680a99aa.pngBE269D18-8A61-42C3-924A-514ECB3A42F6.thumb.png.c445702178931686495a84bafb90107c.png

    Heat building T120 though:

    16392E9D-A38D-4795-9C9B-9DF0A844CA86.thumb.png.1a7c6f5a4a9630924400e44f92e15e6b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ICON 18z has the low held back in the Atlantic at the end of the short run, T120 compared with T126 on 12z:

    3C85A8F4-99A0-4E55-85A1-86E5CD221D37.thumb.png.0474679f9b3f5f3c37e99ad7680a99aa.pngA775A27E-668B-4532-8B6F-0F6F08AD8D9D.thumb.png.58e899b7499c46987ea97c51309809c3.png

    Heat building T120 though:

    16392E9D-A38D-4795-9C9B-9DF0A844CA86.thumb.png.1a7c6f5a4a9630924400e44f92e15e6b.png

     

    Edited by Mike Poole
    Sorry, seem to have quoted myself.
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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

    I'm not new, but seeing a single chart posted with a caption of "hmm" underneath it wasn't particularly helpful either. 👍

    Not new? Stone the crows, point taken though 😄

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Pub run out to T120, it is a plume all right , seems to me anyway:

    9386D351-196F-4E30-887E-BAB27993A2B5.thumb.png.ff98e0fe71a74be69832c53ba6d10d0d.png2867EA50-E46D-4448-9E4C-4CB0FDF3AD4A.thumb.png.6d345403cd8f42d35dcbd098c038e529.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Pub run out to T120, it is a plume all right , seems to me anyway:

    9386D351-196F-4E30-887E-BAB27993A2B5.thumb.png.ff98e0fe71a74be69832c53ba6d10d0d.png2867EA50-E46D-4448-9E4C-4CB0FDF3AD4A.thumb.png.6d345403cd8f42d35dcbd098c038e529.png

    Lots to like on this run so far .

    0EE3EC17-2DF9-403B-BC97-5465DD241C6F.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Now here’s the thing, pub run T168 showing the kind of evolution I might expect given earlier discussion re AAM building:

     

    7F902119-DFDC-48A2-A0C6-7A411AE3E89A.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    GFS temperature charts for later next week show the core of the heat through Friday and Saturday, with cooler conditions by Sunday. Some serious Heat in the states I've noticed also.. Approaching 100f over the next couple of days towards New York for instance.. We really have had to endure the crappy end of the stick this Summer.. I hope the roles are reversed come Winter. 

    Edit.. I feel the GFS is again under cooking those temperatures by several degrees. 

    xx_model-en-330-0_modusa_2020072518_141_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modusa_2020072518_165_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modusa_2020072518_189_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modusa_2020072518_213_18_1.png

    us_model-en-087-0_modez_2020072512_33_5_210.png

    us_model-en-087-0_modez_2020072512_57_5_210.png

    Edited by MATT☀️
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