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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    Just now, Alderc said:

    Does this actually show any TS? there’s little surface cape and precip amounts look pretty minimal....

    Yes.

    Those would be elevated thunderstorms, so you would probably need to look at MU/ML CAPE instead of SB.

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    plume on EC, but generally very Atlantic, reminds me of Thurs to Sat 25-27 June, but hope lows further north and less deep this time

    ECM1-168.GIF?24-0ECM1-192.GIF?24-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    OK just because I can (only get one or two chances a year!), here are some the best ECM ensembles for 850hpa temperatures next weekend 🙂

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/m14_temperature-850hpa/20200801-0000z.html

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/m24_temperature-850hpa/20200802-1800z.html

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/m37_temperature-850hpa/20200803-0000z.html

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/m50_temperature-850hpa/20200801-1800z.html

    Obviously these are cherry picked - but the majority of runs do get the plume into the south east at some point, 20%-30% going for something a bit more widespread for heat. Not many runs see no plume at all.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    ECM and GFS ensembles for London show this potential for a brief plume of heat nicely particularly the latter a significant rise in the ensembles upper air temps there

    20200724_220841.jpg

    20200724_220821.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    On 23/07/2020 at 21:44, Man With Beard said:

    That January anomaly is 1963 quality. How on earth can it come up with that? I think we'd need some sort of meteor strike to pull that off. 

    It has been coming up with such predictions for Dec (and now Jan) consistently. A few weeks ago I saw it pull out one of the coldest anomaly charts I've ever seen. Think it was over 10c below average for Europe! Black hole cold anomaly.

    I've been bullish about this coming winter being a pipe freezer in other threads so it's nice to see a long range agree...even if it is the CFS.

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
    2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    It has been coming up with such predictions for Dec (and now Jan) consistently. A few weeks ago I saw it pull out one of the coldest anomaly charts I've ever seen. Think it was over 10c below average for Europe! Black hole cold anomaly.

    I've been bullish about this coming winter being a pipe freezer in other threads so it's nice to see a long range agree...even if it is the CFS.

    What’s driving this? I doubt sunspots or lack of. Total waste of time taking anyone’s feelings unless they can provide a decent conjecture. You’ll get a typical uk winter, or within 3% of the norm

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

    The only 2 questionable factors for me this winter are the QBO (which looks like the Ely phase is starting to win out now anyway) and the N Pacific SSTs. Literally every other possible factor looks to be conducive for us at this current time as we head into winter. Even the much fabled IOD looks like being flipped compared to last year. Put that together with the fact the first winter after solar min has a bias towards being colder for Europe and we have a pretty solid foundation for a cold winter this year.

    As I said, I'm as bullish as I can be at this point. It may well be that my opinion flips as we go through autumn- that's weather for you; it's fluid and dynamic. However, my thoughts are where I stand at present.

    Let's not derail the thread any further though 😄

    Was hoping for good ice retention this year, and then I'd be a little more confident about any long range showing cold  but alas, it looks like another record breaking melt up there.

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I may be wrong but this looks suspiciously like a plume on the ECM 0z operational, at least for the s / se..it’s very brief but then plumes tend to be very brief but it does look 👀 like a plume to me!😜🔥☀️🌩️

    C623B636-27C9-4A5E-B321-212976EBF4BA.thumb.png.edc47e61a1f44f5d33f5d614d178e6eb.pngF00A81BB-8DB1-4DFE-81EB-6BDFC76FE02D.thumb.png.afd66611d74d4b0704bbda5b464011d4.png

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    GFS and ECM both show around 28/29c in the SE corner Saturday before it dissolves away fairly quickly on the ecm (gone by Sunday).

    However - GFS holds the heat well into the first week of August (warm ensemble outlier). GEM has the warmth until Sunday. 
     

    All in all - very uncertain as to how and when the breakdown occurs!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 00Z starting next Sunday... an Azores-Scandi link-up?:shok::

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    9 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

    this plume is starting to get a foothold now and could upgrade further,,,,,,about time too

    latest from cpc tonight shows the trough further SW than last nights

    1838558520_610day.03(1).thumb.gif.fd7afd99f6c5c823b7041d29d37106cd.gif

    i

    Indeed, its an interesting  development , the very slight ridging to our near east... the 8-14 day chart suggests a return to mobile unsettled westerly but with only a 2/5 confidence level, so heres hoping this plume/trough combo changes the otherwise previous unsettled westerly pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    38 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    GFS and ECM both show around 28/29c in the SE corner Saturday before it dissolves away fairly quickly on the ecm (gone by Sunday).

    However - GFS holds the heat well into the first week of August (warm ensemble outlier). GEM has the warmth until Sunday. 
     

    All in all - very uncertain as to how and when the breakdown occurs!

    Yes it's nice to see the GFS possibility being shown this morning- may not happen but perhaps this could develop into something slightly more prolonged.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Good to see plume opportunities being maintained in the models this morning.

    Slightly off topic, but it’s a bit of a different day to exactly 12 months ago!

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Using ECM raw temps plus 2-3C (a technique that we used very successfully last July), the forthcoming hot snap might produce UK maximums of:

    Thursday 26/27C

    Friday 29/30C

    Saturday 32/33C

    Sunday 24/25C

    Still a little too far out for confidence but we should start to get a fairly certain picture by Monday, I'd guess. 

     

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    That was a hot GFS run this morning for midweek onwards and the 6z is churning something similar, now out to 144

    image.thumb.png.94c5827695d1586f1b99d0ea2df0b89f.pngimage.thumb.png.654f4157039a8e701bda39a4e1ffd977.png  

    The position of the low to the south of Iceland is going to be key to how this plays out, the ECM has it further to the south.  Hopefully the GFS has this one right.... as unlikely as that seems!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, geewhizzaroonie, the GFS 06Z is looking good for later next week!:yahoo:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And, should anyone know just how that 'word' got past Google's dictionary... I'm all ears!:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    30 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Using ECM raw temps plus 2-3C (a technique that we used very successfully last July), the forthcoming hot snap might produce UK maximums of:

    Thursday 26/27C

    Friday 29/30C

    Saturday 32/33C

    Sunday 24/25C

    Still a little too far out for confidence but we should start to get a fairly certain picture by Monday, I'd guess. 

     

    Hopefully we do reach 30C on Friday to at least salvage something from this month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    34 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

    Oh jeez, wow, I was talking about plumes several days ago when the 500mb was having non of it!..fingers crossed we can squeeze out a plume from this generally poor July..and then hopefully august will deliver!😜

    I take it your making reference to those NOAA charts Karl.. I think they're strength is the overall upper air pattern over a couple of weeks.. Perhaps microscale changes that can bring a plume can be missed.. I've noticed even though the EC46 as been pretty solid with its overall trend, the smaller details of a plume event being set up can be missed. There was no hint of a plume on the Thursday evening run for instance... This is where some of our high resolution shorter range models come in very handy.. Because its things that can be missed by the longer range output.. Even Exeter appear to have missed it.. I would say the chance of a significant warm up is now quite high... For how long and how intense is another matter... But alas... Something hopefully to look forward to on a wet miserable Saturday here.. Most of the ens are going warm now, here is a couple that really kick booty. 🤣

     

     

    gens-5-0-150.png

    gens-5-0-156.png

    gens-15-0-162.png

    gens-15-0-168.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Well, this is just plain weird.

    GFS efficiently weakening and disrupting a large Atlantic trough while ECM keeps it unusually strong with relatively slight disruption. 

    Did someone cheekily swap the two around behind the scenes? 🤨😜

    I feel that the climbing AAM should give us a good shot at a useful trough disruption for drawing the hotter spell out a bit, maybe to 3-4 days with a any luck (be that good or bad, depending on reader preference...).

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