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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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25 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

Just had a gander at the 7 month EC anomalies Don, and its going for a warmer than average August and September... October November and December perhaps on the cold side, with January being warmer than average.... These update once a month... 2010 repeat anyone..

If it means a repeat of summer 2011 afterwards absolutely not.......

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

It's your opinion that I'm a pessimist, I only say what I see, others can see differently as they wish and of course depending on where they live.

In my opinion the overnight ECM 0z is worse than the previous as it does not hang the low back as long. 

I also alluded to the 24 hour plume in my post.

And also, we all post our thoughts from at least a weak IMBY perspective... How can we not: I worry myself to sleep over sun-hours in Carryduff about as often as you must about rainfall totals in Beccles?:oldgood:

That said... You're still a pessimist!:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy winters
  • Location: Kent
19 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Just as I posted the 12z CFS the 18z updated which also yet again shows a cold anomaly for every winter month, this time December is the coldest month of the next 8months

Screenshot_20200724-153928_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200724-153933_Samsung Internet.jpg

 

Screenshot_20200724-153938_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200724-154246_Samsung Internet.jpg

JAMSTEC seasonal model is similar.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Due South said:

JAMSTEC seasonal model is similar.

20C in January it is, then!:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

12z ICON is pretty good.

icon-0-156.thumb.png.40ef5c9b2ab5d580668ba03f68a3c522.png   1955881259_icon-1-180(1).thumb.png.fe2659b78b3d4be7f4481044f93a2311.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

12z UKMO is pretty promising

@144

UW144-21 (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS T168:

FE9A67B9-013A-4A9A-B8EC-11066E53F1D7.thumb.png.d1ed1fa575a2fdb8e8f258f4a48b0e07.png660BDCF9-E472-4A26-940D-5E6AF6B048BD.thumb.png.45d8786d6474a099de81477403bd8199.png

GFS had the low in the Atlantic that is causing this plume quite deep earlier in the run, and we know it can overdo lows sometimes, but this plume is now gathering much momentum and interest on here.  And of course, we are in that three week period now when the highest temperatures can be achieved.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

12z GFS is much better than the 06z!

20c uppers clipping the SE - not bad.

Also shows massive thunderstorms breaking out @180

gfseuw-2-180.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Oh, you little stonker!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
24 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So notice how the last 24 hours the models have slowed up the atlantic & increased the temps of the plume hitting the UK

For the SE what started at 12c > Has now morphed upwards to 15-16c.

UKMO looks superb at 144 & ECM 204 was awsome with the 20c line getting into Kent...

S

Even gfs has edged things much further west steve

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Perhaps a warm up is likely later next week,both GFS and UKMO show some warm weather as far north as Manchester !!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS 12Z at T+222 suggesting another burst of warmth. Shame that Those Who Cannot Be Named say it'll be rubbish until, well, whenever!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
24 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z GFS is much better than the 06z!

20c uppers clipping the SE - not bad.

Also shows massive thunderstorms breaking out @180

gfseuw-2-180.png

Overnight plume storms on a night with no work in the morning = that chart is too good to be true!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It's just as @mushymanrob says -- what look to be straight long-fetch westerlies, on the five-day means, have a natural propensity to 'buckle'...Guessing whether said buckling will be good or bad, however, is nae quite so easy...?:unsure2:

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Although much focus is on the plume, quite rightly, GFS at T240 has a decent Azores ridge building in:

56E3C8ED-D425-4D94-AAA4-66DC17F8A12F.thumb.png.8dbe890c16d5a5cd908f3187d2b8f685.png

We have watched these AAM charts from CFS all summer, and they have been rubbish, but now it looks like the much vaunted AAM rise is in the reliable, so may I suggest we might have a half decent August, it has been a while?!

54B3F5F0-29FE-4BA3-A9FE-B3DB7B20B987.thumb.png.b72f7fc309fc734a70a93a70663c3ead.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS 12Z at T+357 looks really, really good. But will it verify? And will I wake-up tomorrow morning and be able to play every single song Johnny Cash ever recorded!?:oldlaugh:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

I made an earlier comment i said there is still time for this plume to develop and really turn into something, or it could turn into nothing and the 12z wants to turn it into something.and makes a nice little cut off low to the west "the heat wave pump".  Big question now is will the developing trend continue?  And theres good news for Manchesters heat lovers, 16-18C uppers are coming to town   

Capture222.JPG

pump.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Certainly a fair few ensembles are bringing a plume type event later next week.. No mention of it from last night's EC46 or today's met update.. But for me the risk is increasing.. The one ensemble bringing +20c uppers to the South. Hopefully ECM builds on this shortly. 

gens-2-0-168.png

gens-2-1-162.png

gens-3-0-180.png

gens-7-0-174.png

gens-7-1-168.png

gens-13-0-180.png

gens-15-0-180.png

gens-16-0-180.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And do the GEFS 12Z ens show uncertainty!:shok:

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

Perturbations please @JON SNOW!?:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Navgem for the south east . 

E34D33A8-3F54-4E80-8653-7D95E5A52E06.png

65AD3ADF-97B3-4C75-809B-645D54B2C6C4.png
 

Ecm looks Good .

 

2EFA4BD5-A5B5-4DC2-A181-1507FF8195F3.gif

2707953E-9976-4818-A9FC-C17291C74FFE.gif

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

12z ECM @168

ECM1-168 (4).gif

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2 hours ago, Zak M said:

12z GFS is much better than the 06z!

20c uppers clipping the SE - not bad.

Also shows massive thunderstorms breaking out @180

gfseuw-2-180.png

Does this actually show any TS? there’s little surface cape and precip amounts look pretty minimal....

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM out now to T168, here:

F459051E-4FF4-4125-8240-E6582303668B.thumb.gif.740dd75b8f8eaec8d380bf27db782521.gif4581A041-9A4F-44B4-ADA5-33D0ABB40820.thumb.gif.3d905db1c7856531b1b042f10e1c727c.gif

Looks like bringing the heat in, maybe hitting the SE and central regions but not further north?

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