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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    25 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Just had a gander at the 7 month EC anomalies Don, and its going for a warmer than average August and September... October November and December perhaps on the cold side, with January being warmer than average.... These update once a month... 2010 repeat anyone.. 😉

    If it means a repeat of summer 2011 afterwards absolutely not.......

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

    It's your opinion that I'm a pessimist, I only say what I see, others can see differently as they wish and of course depending on where they live.

    In my opinion the overnight ECM 0z is worse than the previous as it does not hang the low back as long. 

    I also alluded to the 24 hour plume in my post.

    And also, we all post our thoughts from at least a weak IMBY perspective... How can we not: I worry myself to sleep over sun-hours in Carryduff about as often as you must about rainfall totals in Beccles?:oldgood:

    That said... You're still a pessimist!:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy winters
  • Location: Kent
    19 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

    Just as I posted the 12z CFS the 18z updated which also yet again shows a cold anomaly for every winter month, this time December is the coldest month of the next 8months

    Screenshot_20200724-153928_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20200724-153933_Samsung Internet.jpg

     

    Screenshot_20200724-153938_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20200724-154246_Samsung Internet.jpg

    JAMSTEC seasonal model is similar.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, Due South said:

    JAMSTEC seasonal model is similar.

    20C in January it is, then!:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z ICON is pretty good.

    icon-0-156.thumb.png.40ef5c9b2ab5d580668ba03f68a3c522.png   1955881259_icon-1-180(1).thumb.png.fe2659b78b3d4be7f4481044f93a2311.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z UKMO is pretty promising

    @144

    UW144-21 (1).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS T168:

    FE9A67B9-013A-4A9A-B8EC-11066E53F1D7.thumb.png.d1ed1fa575a2fdb8e8f258f4a48b0e07.png660BDCF9-E472-4A26-940D-5E6AF6B048BD.thumb.png.45d8786d6474a099de81477403bd8199.png

    GFS had the low in the Atlantic that is causing this plume quite deep earlier in the run, and we know it can overdo lows sometimes, but this plume is now gathering much momentum and interest on here.  And of course, we are in that three week period now when the highest temperatures can be achieved.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z GFS is much better than the 06z!

    20c uppers clipping the SE - not bad.

    Also shows massive thunderstorms breaking out @180

    gfseuw-2-180.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Oh, you little stonker!

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    24 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    So notice how the last 24 hours the models have slowed up the atlantic & increased the temps of the plume hitting the UK

    For the SE what started at 12c > Has now morphed upwards to 15-16c.

    UKMO looks superb at 144 & ECM 204 was awsome with the 20c line getting into Kent...

    S

    Even gfs has edged things much further west steve🔥😱

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Perhaps a warm up is likely later next week,both GFS and UKMO show some warm weather as far north as Manchester !!

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 12Z at T+222 suggesting another burst of warmth. Shame that Those Who Cannot Be Named say it'll be rubbish until, well, whenever!

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
    24 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    12z GFS is much better than the 06z!

    20c uppers clipping the SE - not bad.

    Also shows massive thunderstorms breaking out @180

    gfseuw-2-180.png

    Overnight plume storms on a night with no work in the morning = that chart is too good to be true!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    It's just as @mushymanrob says -- what look to be straight long-fetch westerlies, on the five-day means, have a natural propensity to 'buckle'...Guessing whether said buckling will be good or bad, however, is nae quite so easy...?:unsure2:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Although much focus is on the plume, quite rightly, GFS at T240 has a decent Azores ridge building in:

    56E3C8ED-D425-4D94-AAA4-66DC17F8A12F.thumb.png.8dbe890c16d5a5cd908f3187d2b8f685.png

    We have watched these AAM charts from CFS all summer, and they have been rubbish, but now it looks like the much vaunted AAM rise is in the reliable, so may I suggest we might have a half decent August, it has been a while?!

    54B3F5F0-29FE-4BA3-A9FE-B3DB7B20B987.thumb.png.b72f7fc309fc734a70a93a70663c3ead.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 12Z at T+357 looks really, really good. But will it verify? And will I wake-up tomorrow morning and be able to play every single song Johnny Cash ever recorded!?:oldlaugh:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    I made an earlier comment i said there is still time for this plume to develop and really turn into something, or it could turn into nothing and the 12z wants to turn it into something.and makes a nice little cut off low to the west "the heat wave pump".  Big question now is will the developing trend continue?  And theres good news for Manchesters heat lovers, 16-18C uppers are coming to town 🔥  

    Capture222.JPG

    pump.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Certainly a fair few ensembles are bringing a plume type event later next week.. No mention of it from last night's EC46 or today's met update.. But for me the risk is increasing.. The one ensemble bringing +20c uppers to the South. Hopefully ECM builds on this shortly. 

    gens-2-0-168.png

    gens-2-1-162.png

    gens-3-0-180.png

    gens-7-0-174.png

    gens-7-1-168.png

    gens-13-0-180.png

    gens-15-0-180.png

    gens-16-0-180.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    And do the GEFS 12Z ens show uncertainty!:shok:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    Perturbations please @JON SNOW!?:yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Navgem 🔥🔥🔥 for the south east . 

    E34D33A8-3F54-4E80-8653-7D95E5A52E06.png

    65AD3ADF-97B3-4C75-809B-645D54B2C6C4.png
     

    Ecm looks Good .

     

    2EFA4BD5-A5B5-4DC2-A181-1507FF8195F3.gif

    2707953E-9976-4818-A9FC-C17291C74FFE.gif

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z ECM @168

    ECM1-168 (4).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 hours ago, Zak M said:

    12z GFS is much better than the 06z!

    20c uppers clipping the SE - not bad.

    Also shows massive thunderstorms breaking out @180

    gfseuw-2-180.png

    Does this actually show any TS? there’s little surface cape and precip amounts look pretty minimal....

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM out now to T168, here:

    F459051E-4FF4-4125-8240-E6582303668B.thumb.gif.740dd75b8f8eaec8d380bf27db782521.gif4581A041-9A4F-44B4-ADA5-33D0ABB40820.thumb.gif.3d905db1c7856531b1b042f10e1c727c.gif

    Looks like bringing the heat in, maybe hitting the SE and central regions but not further north?

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