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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Gfs looking nicer but further out in FI 

    0C06E117-BB51-437A-8014-831FD56A7D0E.png

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Yes a pleasing GFS operational with the Azores high settling things down nicely longer term.Short to medium term the classic NW SE split although it does look pants for us in the NW over the weekend.

    Oh well, onwards and upwards...

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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    9 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    Indeed, Karl, the GFS 00Z is not as bad as all that; some sort of ridging in evidence, at least. And, what's so dreadful about 'average' anyway??

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And, as the ensembles show, there's a lot going on; though, in these parts at least, perhaps not enough in the rainfall department?:unsure2:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    NH Profiles:

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

    Nothing at all, loving average, long may it continue!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    737EDCFC-696B-418F-93C8-288123C4D146.thumb.png.99d43f53b45a7fdc8bcc5dd02c98b74b.pngB01F131D-3A61-49CC-B77E-2A7A3E937B9A.thumb.png.ee512829e861f2e6b880b57d4669004a.png
     

    GFS looks to settle down a little next weekend, but quickly falls away again as the Azores ridge retracts back. Low AAM state at work, just can’t get sustained ridging in our patch!

    A long way out anyway. Looks improved from the last week for many, which is about as good as we can expect at present.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    8F8B77A9-2355-42EF-8A8E-44520D3F114E.thumb.png.86e6a37664d27ac7f6889077ef9ea4da.png

    GEM has this at day 10, but is dreadful until then with 2 more autumnal low barrelling through with more wind and rain. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Gfs 12z operational isn’t / wasn’t to bad at all, once we get further into next week there’s plenty of ridging further south with lows / troughs tending to brush around the top and mainly affect northern u k. Temperature wise, rather cool further north but pleasantly warm for most of the time further s / se into the low 20’s c...no heatwave obviously but hardly a tragedy either!..as for the GEFS 12z mean, well, it’s similar to the op (better actually) so on balance there is more ridging / high pressure potential than anything really unsettled once we are into next week, at least across southern parts of the u k.

    77CDEB2F-52A5-41A6-A053-FCE066AC93C6.thumb.png.4097e032d3024f85bfdb86d5ae09b612.png70AEE90A-3F9B-42F7-B7D9-49354641673D.thumb.png.004162da07981daf2dbcd2e336b982b5.png862EA112-B0F9-4E96-B1DC-C9E416A9754C.thumb.png.b5ca80e2e97e9792a0161e9226294787.png26774CCF-6C55-4B2B-ACE5-BC6A4F0AD7D7.thumb.png.6c3f986d4e556fafcc96d7f8026dc478.png175B3227-8806-4554-9B52-93F0ED797C5E.thumb.png.785df22723f82ac2ac0ada25aac3a0a8.png6D2601C2-D9DB-4B81-B7AC-2FEF014563D7.thumb.png.47af3750c441f7a4fba47a74166866ea.pngC809E38D-5FC7-4FCD-9C12-2EF97EB0A527.thumb.png.dff8f0cffb8e59e95d15e1a425b21d17.pngC906C716-B6BD-4BEE-B9BB-CD5CC2DD701E.thumb.png.405c5302b81c26a1b3d109e3e5f336f2.png76B8F955-AB34-4A75-8AEA-E6093BCD6FC9.thumb.png.01180f4c3d58da40540de2accfd51113.pngCC0F7AA9-1B6E-4B86-9CA0-E37985ACF5B8.thumb.png.03e4f4ff98964ca6045ac57238cce1ab.png

     

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM sees decent ridge T144 for the south, but I expect it will go downhill again after, possible follow up ridge towards the end of the run maybe:

    641151BD-EBA6-4FEE-A3DA-064CA113BF9C.thumb.gif.0f51bc44eeb705ed2129e2aee65736ca.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z ECM @168

    ?

    ECM1-168 (2).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Yes looks decent Monday to Wednesday Mike all eyes on what comes next. 

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2020070212_96_1431_149.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2020070212_120_1431_149.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2020070212_144_1431_149.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2020070212_144_1642_149.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2020070212_180_1642_149.png

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    8 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    12z ECM @168

    ?

    ECM1-168 (2).gif

    27c in the east on that chart. Also some big rainfall contrasts incoming:

    97E5B788-562C-44D0-A0E0-4174C6921497.thumb.jpeg.183dca8f25b9d211a495070788e1e22a.jpeg
     

    4-6 inches of rain in parts of Wales, NW England and Scotland....next to nothing in the SE.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z ECM @216 is showing some more ridging of the AH and could perhaps lead to another round of warm and settled conditions...

    ECM1-216 (1).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Not bad at 192hrs..with a ridge moving in again.. Let's see what the EC46 has to say later.. 

    That will do for now.. ?

    ECM1-216.gif

    C2VV9spWQAEbg42.jpg.cc1ff321fc753fa44cca9dc654d6a476.jpg

    ECM1-240.gif

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM isn’t bad at all. Keeps most of the lows on a leash away from the UK. I think we’d take that!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC pretty consistent with a NW SE split next week.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Week 1 With EC46 builds High Pressure with some decent conditions away from the NW and this leads us through into next Weekend.. Week 2 the High again retreats with a more W/NW element to the wind direction, temps at this stage are to be honest quite  DISAPPOINTING,around 14c in the far NW to around 18-20c further South... Nothing at this stage to suggest a major warm spell in the next 2 weeks.. Will let you know more about week 3 and 4 a little later.. ?

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    The EC46 is certainly not backing up the EXETER update earlier, like I said earlier conditions look very decent out to mid month beyond that it's still very much an ebb and flow ridge from the Azores, it never really wants to build in strongly or in a favourable position! Temps are around average at best... Towards the final 3rd those precipitation amounts are going up towards the NW in general, with low pressures going around the top of the High also of note is the high precipitation amounts over Southern Scandinavia! Hopefully the Met hold firm with this encouraging forecast, but tonight I'm not seeing it at all on the 46..not through this month anyway. Not to say its correct but it is a model that tends to be good at spotting trends.. Hopefully things look better soon... But in the shorter term next week looks good away from the NW... 

    Dare I say it..... A NW/SE split... More splits than a Banana.... ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    ECM clusters look very good for the south -

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020070212_156.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Not a bad GFS 00Z op, this morning: plenty of dry, warmish (though, thankfully, never hot) weather on offer, especially from Day 9 onwards! All be gone when the 06Z comes out, no doubt!:gathering:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    But, as has been a common situation, this summer, the GEFS 18Z ens suggest a short, sharp dip followed by a sustained improvement...?

    t850Suffolk.png   prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

    NH profiles:

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-378.png

    PS: I have no idea why the 00Z ens are so slow...?:unsure2:

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    No sign of Summer on the Oz ECM Op. Every time the Azores high tries to ridge in, it's quickly suppressed by Atlantic lows. This as T++240. Very poor.

    image.thumb.png.13434989a12ae130d89f5797950fc1fb.png

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    As you were this morning..

    I'm detecting movement to a more general improvement longer term with the jet gradually lifting North...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

    No sign of Summer on the Oz ECM Op. Every time the Azores high tries to ridge in, it's quickly suppressed by Atlantic lows. This as T++240. Very poor.

    image.thumb.png.13434989a12ae130d89f5797950fc1fb.png

    image.png

    EC mean is excellent,clusters will be good IMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    EC mean is excellent,clusters will be good IMO.

    Here's hoping the Op is a big outlier.

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